Calling Insiders..Future Rankings 3.0

[jdsingar]

Hollinger released version 3.0 of his Future Power Rankings today. Could any insiders post the commentary on the Cats? I don't expect it to be much better than before. We still have Diop.

[Walt Cronkite]

No change:
Players and Management are 29th, Money is 30th, Market is 25th, Draft 19th

Will the Bobcats under Michael Jordan (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1035) be any different than they have been under Robert Johnson? We have our doubts. Jordan is already an absentee part-owner and the head of basketball operations, and it's unclear how much financial strength his new ownership group will bring to the table. So, despite the excitement over MJ's acquisition and a potential first-ever playoff berth, the Bobcats still rank at the bottom in our Future Power Rankings. Although the team on the court has been decent this season, there's little reason for optimism going forward. Tyrus Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3032) is the only young player of note, and he's already in his fourth season. The other top players, especially Stephen Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=378), are at the point where they should begin declining steadily.
Good luck bringing in more help. The Bobcats have traded two future first-round picks, and if they re-sign Thomas, they'll have no cap space in either of the next two summers. Plus, they have serious-enough luxury-tax issues that they're likely to lose guard Raymond Felton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2753) as an unrestricted free agent and be unable to use their midlevel exception in the summer. Management is a huge question mark, too -- it appears impulsive coach Larry Brown is calling many of the shots, and his track record says that's seriously dangerous.
(Previous rank: 30)


I think it's pretty fair of Ford and Hollinger. We're in "win now" mode, don't have draft picks and waste the ones we keep. Anyway, there ya go.

[spectre]

Awesome...another thread where we can bash Hollinger!

:escape:

[spectre]

Seriously...kind of hard to argue with that assessment.

[jdsingar]

I'd say that is a very fair assessment, as well. This year is going well, but we could be in trouble as soon as next season. Diop, Chandler, and Diaw will create alot of dead weight in contracts. Jackson will probably be on the decline sooner or later. I'd say G-Force has two more seasons of good performance before a decline, though the mileage he is taking now could hurt in the long run.

Perhaps this is more reason to Free Gerald Henderson and see "What Brown Can Do For Us."

[BRNC]

Seriously...kind of hard to argue with that assessment.

:yeahthat:...yes...it is...and until the organization does something to dispel it...there it is...

[TheBeagle]

No change:
Players and Management are 29th, Money is 30th, Market is 25th, Draft 19th



I think it's pretty fair of Ford and Hollinger. We're in "win now" mode, don't have draft picks and waste the ones we keep. Anyway, there ya go.
Yeah, there's really no way to argue with that I don't think. The only saving grace for the franchise is what their only saving grace has been thus far; these ratings are based on status quo, and things are rarely status quo with the Cats with the trading and such.

Still, I'm not sure how the hell "Draft" got 19th and not 30th. Maybe there's something I'm missing, but when your best picks are Mek and Raymond, and one of those is gone with the other still trying to find his way as a PG 5 years later, how the hell are we ranked 19th?!?!

[jdsingar]

Yeah, there's really no way to argue with that I don't think. The only saving grace for the franchise is what their only saving grace has been thus far; these ratings are based on status quo, and things are rarely status quo with the Cats with the trading and such.

Still, I'm not sure how the hell "Draft" got 19th and not 30th. Maybe there's something I'm missing, but when your best picks are Mek and Raymond, and one of those is gone with the other still trying to find his way as a PG 5 years later, how the hell are we ranked 19th?!?!


I think (and I may be completely off on this) but the draft ratings factor in future draft position as well as ability to draft. Of course, we give up two future first round picks, so I am not sure how that would work either.

[Toocool]

As long as we make the playoffs, I'll be happy (since Chicago can have a crappy first pick =P)

[Walt Cronkite]

As long as we make the playoffs, I'll be happy (since Chicago can have a crappy first pick =P)

If we make the playoffs (or just miss and somehow finish 13th or 14th) then our pick goes to Minnesota. Then Chicago gets out 2012 pick.

[ohara831]

Walt, I have to think that if we end up 9th in the East, we will still get out pick. The teams just out of the Playoffs in the West are ahead of us by winning %. For instance, we are in 9th in the East right now, just .5 game behind Miami. And we would be picking 11th in the Lottery. Unless we really end strong and still just miss, and some in the West just collapse, I think the worst case scenario will be avoided. But then again, our luck has sucked so badly that it would not shock me if something like the worst case does fall upon us.

[SirBobcat]

Walt, I have to think that if we end up 9th in the East, we will still get out pick. The teams just out of the Playoffs in the West are ahead of us by winning %. For instance, we are in 9th in the East right now, just .5 game behind Miami. And we would be picking 11th in the Lottery. Unless we really end strong and still just miss, and some in the West just collapse, I think the worst case scenario will be avoided. But then again, our luck has sucked so badly that it would not shock me if something like the worst case does fall upon us.

Well the last three teams out of the West playoffs (Houston, New Orleans, and Memphis) are actually only a game and a half away from Charlotte, so it could possibly happen that Charlotte could move ahead of those teams.

[ajbry]

Overall, it's a reasonably fair (and scary) assessment.

However, I'll never comprehend how some basketball analysts assume Jack will be declining due to age (particularly since they've been saying it for a couple years).

One thing is clearly true - most wing players start declining once they hit 30 because their athletic ability is diminished and they struggle to adjust their game.

But Jack's game doesn't rely on speed, quickness, or anything of the sort. He's been a below-average NBA athlete for a few seasons now and it hasn't affected his game at all. He's in extremely elite company for players his age on a statistical basis, so if anything that should refute the notion that wing players all follow the same trajectory, solely based on age.

[Ampsportsduo]

Never one to pass on a chance to rip on Hollinger or his assessments I will step up to the plate.


Will the Bobcats under Michael Jordan (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1035) be any different than they have been under Robert Johnson? We have our doubts. Jordan is already an absentee part-owner and the head of basketball operations, and it's unclear how much financial strength his new ownership group will bring to the table.

Jordan is mocked more for his "absentee" status because he is high profile. Anyone foolish enough to think that he's the only NBA owner that enjoys jetting around the world, I have a bridge to sell you. He's an owner, not a GM and while he, like all owners, has to rubber stamp moves, it's become clear that Rod Higgins and LB are the brains and leg work behind the moves that the team makes. So, why is it a big deal if Jordan's playing golf in Cabo? It's not, other than people take notice. The Pistons owner, Bill Davidson (passed away last year) also owned the Tampa Bay Lightning, two teams that play during the same season and both teams won championships during his tenure. Was he an absentee owner? No one gave a damn, because he was Bill Davidson. MJ has an opportunity to do great things with this team and this city, opportunities, you could argue, that virtually no other owner would currently enjoy in this city. Does he need to be around to meet with sponsors and to handle business? yes. Does he need to be shaking hands at every game and constantly scouting? No. Jerry Buss scouts 20 year old females 10,000 more than he does basketball players and no one cares because the people under him do a good job.



Although the team on the court has been decent this season, there's little reason for optimism going forward.

This is so painfully inane, its below even Holinger. Looking at rotation guys only Jackson and Mohammed are in their 30's, and if this team has given up two non-lottery picks then how damning is it towards the future?


Tyrus Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3032) is the only young player of note, and he's already in his fourth season.

Good job judging by the stats and not by actually watching this team play. Anyone who has watched has seen flashes from Derrick Brown that suggest he can be a player in this league. Of course, it's tough to see that from box scores when LB buries him from time to time.


The other top players, especially Stephen Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=378), are at the point where they should begin declining steadily.

Curious if this is what he wrote about Kobe in the Lakers assessment. Kobe and Jack are the same age, and Kobe has a lot more miles on his legs. I'm not saying Jack's Kobe, but their games are similar and "steady decline" seems more designed to have an impact on the reader than being accurate.


Good luck bringing in more help. The Bobcats have traded two future first-round picks, and if they re-sign Thomas, they'll have no cap space in either of the next two summers.

This just isn't accurate. How does this team have no cap space in two summers when TC and Mohammed come off the books? Oh, is he suggesting that the team re-signed Raymond? Well that defeats his next point.


Plus, they have serious-enough luxury-tax issues that they're likely to lose guard Raymond Felton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2753) as an unrestricted free agent and be unable to use their midlevel exception in the summer.

Because Hollinger's judging this team harshly, he chooses to project perceived difficulties that have zero basis in fact. As we've discussed before, the luxury tax doesn't kick in until the end of the season and Hollinger chose to ignore the nearly $20 million in expiring contracts the team will have next season, which could help the team get under the luxury tax threshold. I have heard zero to suggest that this team will lose Raymond and there's no way this team goes into opening day next year with DJ as the starting PG.




Management is a huge question mark, too -- it appears impulsive coach Larry Brown is calling many of the shots, and his track record says that's seriously dangerous.

Choosing to use impulsive instead of Hall of Fame works much better when criticizing someone. Well wrtitten, Holly! So he starts the overview talking about MJ being absentee being an issue and then points to LB being in charge. Can't have it both ways. LB has lead 3 of 4 teams to the conference finals or beyond. That's a hell of a lot better track record than Hollinger's track record of commenting on the Cats.

Do I think LB is perfect? No, but Hollinger went doom and gloom on every possible angle regarding the Cats. I went rose colored glasses. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

[BRNC]

...I guess we all have to remember (and I try to apply it to myself)...one mans' logic is another mans' stupidity....I like the contradictions in "logic" you pointed out amp...

[TheBeagle]

Never one to pass on a chance to rip on Hollinger or his assessments I will step up to the plate.



Jordan is mocked more for his "absentee" status because he is high profile. Anyone foolish enough to think that he's the only NBA owner that enjoys jetting around the world, I have a bridge to sell you. He's an owner, not a GM and while he, like all owners, has to rubber stamp moves, it's become clear that Rod Higgins and LB are the brains and leg work behind the moves that the team makes. So, why is it a big deal if Jordan's playing golf in Cabo? It's not, other than people take notice. The Pistons owner, Bill Davidson (passed away last year) also owned the Tampa Bay Lightning, two teams that play during the same season and both teams won championships during his tenure. Was he an absentee owner? No one gave a damn, because he was Bill Davidson. MJ has an opportunity to do great things with this team and this city, opportunities, you could argue, that virtually no other owner would currently enjoy in this city. Does he need to be around to meet with sponsors and to handle business? yes. Does he need to be shaking hands at every game and constantly scouting? No. Jerry Buss scouts 20 year old females 10,000 more than he does basketball players and no one cares because the people under him do a good job.



This is so painfully inane, its below even Holinger. Looking at rotation guys only Jackson and Mohammed are in their 30's, and if this team has given up two non-lottery picks then how damning is it towards the future?



Good job judging by the stats and not by actually watching this team play. Anyone who has watched has seen flashes from Derrick Brown that suggest he can be a player in this league. Of course, it's tough to see that from box scores when LB buries him from time to time.



Curious if this is what he wrote about Kobe in the Lakers assessment. Kobe and Jack are the same age, and Kobe has a lot more miles on his legs. I'm not saying Jack's Kobe, but their games are similar and "steady decline" seems more designed to have an impact on the reader than being accurate.



This just isn't accurate. How does this team have no cap space in two summers when TC and Mohammed come off the books? Oh, is he suggesting that the team re-signed Raymond? Well that defeats his next point.



Because Hollinger's judging this team harshly, he chooses to project perceived difficulties that have zero basis in fact. As we've discussed before, the luxury tax doesn't kick in until the end of the season and Hollinger chose to ignore the nearly $20 million in expiring contracts the team will have next season, which could help the team get under the luxury tax threshold. I have heard zero to suggest that this team will lose Raymond and there's no way this team goes into opening day next year with DJ as the starting PG.




Choosing to use impulsive instead of Hall of Fame works much better when criticizing someone. Well wrtitten, Holly! So he starts the overview talking about MJ being absentee being an issue and then points to LB being in charge. Can't have it both ways. LB has lead 3 of 4 teams to the conference finals or beyond. That's a hell of a lot better track record than Hollinger's track record of commenting on the Cats.

Do I think LB is perfect? No, but Hollinger went doom and gloom on every possible angle regarding the Cats. I went rose colored glasses. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. As always, amp; good read! Your MJ take is 100% spot-on as is the cap space and managment takes. I'll have to disagree a bit on the "optimism going forward" only because, as the roster is currently, I have to wonder if the ceiling for this team is going to be any better than slugging it out for a lower-tiered playoff spot for the next couple years....and then what? Then again, that goes back to my mention of the status quo, and how often that is shaken up (lately for the positive) and how that makes prognostications about our boys a slippery, if not foolish, slope.

+1

[Ampsportsduo]

I have to wonder if the ceiling for this team is going to be any better than slugging it out for a lower-tiered playoff spot for the next couple years....and then what?

I have suggested before that this team's goals need to evolve over the next few years. First, this team should try to make the playoffs. After that, try to become a perennial playoff team. By then the fanbase will have grown and sponsors will be more plentiful. Then, the team should attempt to grow a championship team. If the team were to hit the jackpot in a draft, the process could be accelerated but as it stands now, that seems increasingly doubtful.

Why do I propose this method? With the current landscape and the teams current cap/draft pick situation I feel this is the most logical approach. Secondly, over the course the next 5-7 years, at most one title will be one by a team that doesn't have one of these five guys on the roster: Kobe, LeBron, Carmello, Durant, or DWade. There are only 4 other true title contenders I would consider, Dirk (Dallas could make a splash in the off-season), a Joe Johnson/Chris Bosh combo, Dwight Howard (if his offense continues to develop) and maybe Chris Paul (if he leaves NO).

Because of the unique situation with the city, LB's age and the current roster, the team is best suited to push forward as far as they can with the current roster. Hopefully, this core group can reach the playoffs multiple times and two of the young fellows develop and they can become an integral piece of the new core. The team can rebuild and maybe that core will be in position to challenge for a title. This team is not good enough to challenge for a title, but they are good enough to make the playoffs and potentially win a series. This is not a failure so much as it is just a reality for 3/4 of the NBA teams.

[Walt Cronkite]

Will not change your opinion, just thought it was worth mentioning that this isn't Hollinger alone, but a dual ranking by Hollinger and Chad Ford.

As another note, I think it's pretty useless. Things change too fast in the NBA... you can update things, but what's the point.

Re: Larry Brown being impulsive-- I think this was a lesser issue with Johnson paying the bill. Unless MJ finds a wealthy investor, you don't think it's going to put strain on the relationship between LB and MJ now that Jordan is paying for LB missteps like Augustin and Diop?

[BRNC]

I know the team is some place between the Cavs win and this Boston blow-out...I also know that we have to make the play-offs (this year) for the fans to take this team seriously...but I can't imagine MJ being happy (if he watched) the "product" we had on the floor tonight against the Celtics...I've been of the opinion that play-offs, consistent appearances in said, then push for a championship (pretty much what amp said) is the way to go also...but the way the team has played since the All-Star break has me worried...this team has not appeared (IMO) hungry nor in "panic mode" (with time to recover) and I'm beginning to get concerned about step one...making the play-offs this year...

[Toocool]

Everyone is entitled to their opinions. No matter how stupid they are, they're entitled to it. Hollinger can spout as much crap out of his mouth as he wants, it won't change the way we support our team, in fact by the response we can all see how much the Bobcats mean to us (some chaps are pretty angry over his comments).

As for us having no future. That is utterly ridiculous. We've all seen the flashes of potential UPS and to a lesser degree Hendo have. He talks as if this team has no decent players. We do have some failed players (Diop, TC, Graham) but we have managed to get rid of 2 (Morrison, Vlad Rad).

We have hope. We all know that. And even though I will always question LB's crazyass decisions not to play our rookies, not shoving Diaw/TC/Jax out of the game when they're failing.

ILBAMJIT (In Larry Brown and Michael Jordan I Trust)

[teej]

Never one to pass on a chance to rip on Hollinger or his assessments I will step up to the plate.

I really tried to stay out of this thread, but that was a A level performance, +1.

And somehow, I can't see how a team with MJ, Larry Brown, Gerald Wallace, Stephen Jackson, Derrick Brown, etc. is the worst prepared team for the future. :g:

[Walt Cronkite]

Uhh... maybe because you're wearing thick homer glasses and don't realize that the present isn't that bright, so if we're counting on UPS, MJ, LB and etc to lead us to the promised land, we're probably a team with one of the bleakest futures in the league. Doesn't help that we give away draft picks like they're candy because we're terrified of what we'll do with them if left to our own devices.

[teej]

Uhh... maybe because you're wearing thick homer glasses and don't realize that the present isn't that bright, so if we're counting on UPS, MJ, LB and etc to lead us to the promised land, we're probably a team with one of the bleakest futures in the league. Doesn't help that we give away draft picks like they're candy because we're terrified of what we'll do with them if left to our own devices.

I never said we had a bright future. Ever.

However, I don't see us being the WORST team in the whole league with an All Star on the low side of 30, a would be All Star, a great young athletic Small Forward, a Hall of Fame Coach (who is good for a HC from his staff every few years, so when he retires we're fine), and if we re-sign Ray and Tyrus, a solid core.

Championship caliber? Hell no.

Top 5 in the Lottery? No way.

[Walt Cronkite]

I never said we had a bright future. Ever.

However, I don't see us being the WORST team in the whole league with an All Star on the low side of 30, a would be All Star, a great young athletic Small Forward, a Hall of Fame Coach (who is good for a HC from his staff every few years, so when he retires we're fine), and if we re-sign Ray and Tyrus, a solid core.

Championship caliber? Hell no.

Top 5 in the Lottery? No way.

This exercise isn't about who is the worst or best team in the league, it's about the future of the franchises. We don't have too many players on our roster with much potential to improve significantly. Unless DJ turns it around or Jinx "gets it" we don't have any young guys with potential to be more than starter quality (maybe UPS could be above average, maybe). The rest of the guys are going to stay constant or get worse. Consider we have a gaping hole at center as well.

Our money rank is so low because we're capped out for the entirety of the projection and it would be silly to go very far above the luxury tax. Our market is so low because of our franchise success and inability to draw FAs. Management (quality and stability of FO, ownership, coaching) is probably penalized for us going through an ownership exchange while the article was being revised for a 3rd time and because we've had a lot of hits and misses from the fo. Coaching is great for now, but LB is pretty old and hoping Hanners or Ford can run the show after him is a pretty big great unknown.

FWIW, the article definitely isn't suggesting we'll be a top 5 lotto team, as shown by our draft category. It's penalized for the picks we owe to other teams, sure, but it's middle of the pack because we're going to be one of those middle of the range teams.

[teej]

This exercise isn't about who is the worst or best team in the league, it's about the future of the franchises. We don't have too many players on our roster with much potential to improve significantly. Unless DJ turns it around or Jinx "gets it" we don't have any young guys with potential to be more than starter quality (maybe UPS could be above average, maybe). The rest of the guys are going to stay constant or get worse. Consider we have a gaping hole at center as well.

Our money rank is so low because we're capped out for the entirety of the projection and it would be silly to go very far above the luxury tax. Our market is so low because of our franchise success and inability to draw FAs. Management (quality and stability of FO, ownership, coaching) is probably penalized for us going through an ownership exchange while the article was being revised for a 3rd time and because we've had a lot of hits and misses from the fo. Coaching is great for now, but LB is pretty old and hoping Hanners or Ford can run the show after him is a pretty big great unknown.

FWIW, the article definitely isn't suggesting we'll be a top 5 lotto team, as shown by our draft category. It's penalized for the picks we owe to other teams, sure, but it's middle of the pack because we're going to be one of those middle of the range teams.

Ok, maybe I'm confused, which is entirely possible if not probable.

Please help me here: Does the article not place us 30 out of 30 (or "bottom") for the "future" of the franchise?

And what is the length of the projection? We have the huge expirings that Amp talked about for next season, so unless the projection covers the summer and fall, I have no clue how them discounting the possibility of us re-signing Ray and Tyrus is good journalism.

Also,


We don't have too many players on our roster with much potential to improve significantly. Unless DJ turns it around or Jinx "gets it" we don't have any young guys with potential to be more than starter quality (maybe UPS could be above average, maybe). The rest of the guys are going to stay constant or get worse.

A) LB claims Crash can get better. I don't know how much I'd put into that, but it's at least worth listening to.

B) Tyrus Thomas, 23, can't get better and become starter quality? He was only a top pick in the draft and has huge upside...

C) Ray can't get better? He's shown signs of that this year...

Look, I don't want a major debate. I just don't think that you can look at this team and legitimately say we have the bleakest future.

Just out of interest, what did they say about Boston, Detroit, and New Orleans? If you remember.

[jdsingar]

Ok, maybe I'm confused, which is entirely possible if not probable.

Please help me here: Does the article not place us 30 out of 30 (or "bottom") for the "future" of the franchise?

And what is the length of the projection? We have the huge expirings that Amp talked about for next season, so unless the projection covers the summer and fall, I have no clue how them discounting the possibility of us re-signing Ray and Tyrus is good journalism.

Also,



A) LB claims Crash can get better. I don't know how much I'd put into that, but it's at least worth listening to.

B) Tyrus Thomas, 23, can't get better and become starter quality? He was only a top pick in the draft and has huge upside...

C) Ray can't get better? He's shown signs of that this year...

Look, I don't want a major debate. I just don't think that you can look at this team and legitimately say we have the bleakest future.

Just out of interest, what did they say about Boston, Detroit, and New Orleans? If you remember.

On point B..I think Tyrus definitely has alot of upside, but I don't think he can develop the skill set to match a guy with similar athleticism such as Stoudemire. I hope I am wrong on this.

I'm not sure about Ray either. His improvement seems to have come from addition by subtraction. He's turning into a good PG, but never will be great unless he pulls a Chauncey.

Here's a few squads that we might have a better future than...
1) Warriors - As long as Nellie is there, I think they continue to suck.
2) 76ers - Loaded up on contracts, their talent hasn't gotten them very far
3) Pistons - Huge cap issues for a team that just isn't that good
4) Wizards - Not many assets left. IF Arenas comes back and plays well, they could be an average team.
5) Pacers - Granger needs pieces around him.
6) Grizzlies - Gay is probably gone and this year could prove to be a fluke.
7) Hornets - It is basically Chris Paul, David West, and that overpaid crew. Collison is looking good though, and should get them something.

[Walt Cronkite]

And what is the length of the projection? We have the huge expirings that Amp talked about for next season, so unless the projection covers the summer and fall, I have no clue how them discounting the possibility of us re-signing Ray and Tyrus is good journalism.

A) LB claims Crash can get better. I don't know how much I'd put into that, but it's at least worth listening to.

B) Tyrus Thomas, 23, can't get better and become starter quality? He was only a top pick in the draft and has huge upside...

C) Ray can't get better? He's shown signs of that this year...

I don't have much time right now, so I'll come back to most of this, but I can c&p quickly.

"The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team during the 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons."

"...the most important category was a team's current players and the future potential of those players. That category accounted for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating. At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future."


"PLAYERS (0 to 400 points): Current players and their potential for the future, factoring in expected departures
MANAGEMENT (0 to 200 points): Quality and stability of front office, ownership, coaching
MONEY (0 to 200 points): Projected salary-cap situation; ability and willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury tax
MARKET (0 to 100 points): Appeal to future acquisitions based on team quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fans
DRAFT (0 to 100 points): Future draft picks; draft positioning"

Players, MGMT, Money, Market, Draft
Bos 21, 10, 12, 8, 24
Det 23, 11, 24, 19, 8
NO 11, 23, 29, 24, 16

Bos 15th Ovr:

In the present, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo are keeping Boston among the East's elite, but age and injuries are, more and more, catching up with the Celtics. Of the team's famed Big Three, Garnett will be 34 when next season starts; Pierce will be 33; and Allen will be 35, presuming he returns. Boston's lack of action at the trade deadline, particularly its inability to move Allen's expiring contract for assets to carry the franchise forward, puts into serious question whether the Celtics will be able to stay near the top and keep their championship hopes alive in future seasons. The addition of spark plug Nate Robinson in place of Eddie House isn't a difference maker.
Among the key players, only Rondo -- age 24, now an All-Star and probably the Celts' best player -- and Perkins (25) are young enough to build a bridge to the future. That's why the Celtics have a mediocre Future Power Rating despite being a storied franchise and still a contender with deep pockets and good management.


Detroit 20th ovr:

t's hard to find much good news in Detroit. After years of being a contender, the Pistons are struggling, and fans are no longer flocking to the Palace. And after their high hopes that Pistons president Joe Dumars (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3689) would make a big trade at the deadline, Pistons fans didn't get anything. The Pistons have played better of late now that Richard Hamilton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=294) and Tayshaun Prince (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1724) are finally healthy. But for the team to avoid a future full of mediocrity, it needs Dumars to find some big men to score and balance out the roster.


NO ovr:24


New Orleans has to be excited about the development of rookies Darren Collison (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3973) and Marcus Thornton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=4017), especially because those two might let the team slither out of a salary-cap noose that otherwise would have it bleeding money next season.
The small-market Hornets could find themselves more than $10 million over the luxury-tax line next season thanks to a series of awful contracts (Peja Stojakovic (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=813), Morris Peterson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=656), James Posey (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=671)), but if they can trade point guard sensation Collison -- who won't be needed once superstar Chris Paul (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2779) comes back -- and/or Thornton and dump a couple of bad contracts in the process, they might be able to avoid the hit and protect the roster's core, particularly CP3.
This team doesn't make a lot at the gate, doesn't have wealthy owners and is only a borderline playoff team as presently constructed. Paul is the league's best point guard, and one hopes the Hornets can get out of their financial quagmire without trading him.



Quick points
1. notes that if we re-sign Tyrus we'll have no cap space this offseason or next, not that we won't resign him. Just that doing so will tie up what could otherwise be available. We're 10m over a cap that is expected to drop right now. Naz and Chandler are ~20m in expiring, so we'd be 10 under except that Jackson's deal increases a million, so 9. Tyson gets a deal around what Naz is currently making (maybe more, maybe less, just for the sake of argument), so now we're looking at 3mio in space. Consider that we have to sign new players to fill in for the contributions of Naz and Chandler (one of those is no small task) and...


2. "Plus, they have serious-enough luxury-tax issues that they're likely to lose guard Raymond Felton as an unrestricted free agent and be unable to use their midlevel exception in the summer." Not that we will let Felton go, just that it's a likely scenario. Ray is a UFA after all, so he has the advantage in pricing his contract and none of us know if MJ is willing to go into the luxury tax. The tax is at 71 this year and will fall... we're right there for next season resigning Felts to a no raise deal and Tyrus to the QO. We can trade Naz and/or Chandler to a team with cap space and take back less salary to get under the tax, but we'll still be capped out while losing one productive player for nothing, so that isn't really going to make the team play any better.



I think Tyrus is a starter level player already. He has the most potential to improve, but he'll be reaching his peak while Wallace has declined, so they'll sort of cancel out. Felton has been consistent for 5 years now... if the improved shooting is around to stay, that's great, but he's not going to get that much more of an improvement and we're going to be re-signing him before the CBA is restructured, so it's possible we could be really overpaying.



Anyway, like I've said before, I don't put much into this, mostly because I have the feeling we're going to do something drastic again this summer that makes us look totally different, since we have a history of doing that ever since MJ has been around (JRich to Boris/Bell to Chandler to Jack)

[spectre]

Anyway, like I've said before, I don't put much into this, mostly because I have the feeling we're going to do something drastic again this summer that makes us look totally different, since we have a history of doing that ever since MJ has been around (JRich to Boris/Bell to Chandler to Jack)

We know they can re-make the lineup in an instant by adding salary. It'll be interesting to see them trying to reduce it and still maintain a playoff calibre team.

[BRNC]

We know they can re-make the lineup in an instant by adding salary. It'll be interesting to see them trying to reduce it and still maintain a playoff calibre team.

spectre..."rabbit" and "hat" instantly popped into my head when I read this...:biggrin:

[teej]

Thanks for the info Walt.

Not going to debate anything you said, you're mostly right.

Hollinger/Ford, however:

How on earth can Detroit be in a worse situation than us, yet be higher in the ratings??? We have younger and better "stars" than them, better prospects (since they have Daye and Jerebko, which makes 1 good prospect), the same salary cap situation, a better coach, a better financial situation (if that's possible for us :P), and their ownership isn't exactly stable...

[deepeast79]

I would much rather be in Detroit with three rings and a lousy future than be in Charlotte with an expansion team (or whatever) and a lousy future.