Hollinger's Playoff Predictions: Meh.

[jdsingar]

Here's the prediciton from Hollinger for our series

(2) Orlando vs. (7) Charlotte
Season series: 3-1 Orlando.
Odds say: Magic 91.9%; Bobcats 8.1%
Orlando was the best team in the league in the second half of the season, so it's a little odd that nobody seems to want to talk about it. Over the final quarter of the season, its average scoring margin was a jaw-dropping plus-12.8, and for the whole season, it led the NBA at plus-7.4. Make no mistake: This is a formidable, championship-caliber outfit.
For Charlotte, here's Larry Brown in a nutshell: He took the team to its first playoff appearance, and he might be already lining up his next gig. The Bobcats likely will take one game from Orlando, given Charlotte's phenomenally large home-road splits this season (31 home wins against just 13 on the road, an 18-game differential that was the league's largest this season). However, things will take a turn for the worse for Charlotte when Brown leaves the bench in the second quarter of Game 4 to take the Philadelphia job.
Pick: Magic in five


I can't say I disagree much with his assessment of Orlando. It did piss me off that he devoted much of his talk about us to LB. I am hoping we stretch it to 6, but his pick may be right. Still, we have even more reason to shock the world.

[bing!]

... shock the world.

^ you got that from Noah, right? :biggrin:

[jdsingar]

^ you got that from Noah, right? :biggrin:

Haha oh yeah. The Bulls are going to "*expletive* shock the world"... by winning one game.

[ebrown]

I wish they would actually talk about our team instead of beating a dead horse with the whole Larry Brown job situation. Give our guys some freaking credit here instead of focusing on a non-issue

[ohara831]

If we are strongly competitive in each game, then I will be happy. I think odds are good we stretch it to 5 or possibly games. But we are realistically not at Orlando's level. If we pull off the upset in Round 1, it would likely be due to Orlando losing Howard to an injury early in the series. Not something I want to happen, but I dont see Charlotte winning a best of 7 with Orlando with the current rosters. But if we somehow get hot and run off a stretch of games playing great ball, it could be a surprise. One thing we have going for us - no one other than the team and its fans think the Bobcats have a prayer. Maybe Orlando has its guard down and is overlooking us.

[Ampsportsduo]

After 30 games the Bobcats were 6 games under .500. This was the low water mark for the team this season. Since then...

Bobcats were 12-18 and went 32-20 over the last 52 games.
Magic were 22-8 and went 37-15 over the last 52.

So since the new year, there's a difference of only 5 games between the team's records. Is it arbitrary? Yes. Is Hollinger's argument just an arbitrary record grab that supports his case? Also yes.

Hollinger dropping some more Larry jokes instead of any analysis of our team. Maybe it's because... HE NEVER WATCHES OUR TEAM PLAY!

[spectre]

After 30 games the Bobcats were 6 games under .500. This was the low water mark for the team this season. Since then...

Bobcats were 12-18 and went 32-20 over the last 52 games.
Magic were 22-8 and went 37-15 over the last 52.

So since the new year, there's a difference of only 5 games between the team's records. Is it arbitrary? Yes. Is Hollinger's argument just an arbitrary record grab that supports his case? Also yes.

Hollinger dropping some more Larry jokes instead of any analysis of our team. Maybe it's because... HE NEVER WATCHES OUR TEAM PLAY!

Now that's very interesting. Considering that the Magic was "the hottest team post all star break" that would mean we weren't that far behind.

[teej]

To be fair, Amp, that's a 12-4 January.

From February to now, we were 20-16.

Post ASG we're 18-13.

[jdsingar]

Hollinger's little rant was just disrespectful. By my estimation, we're the 5th best squad in the East right now, and that should garner some attention. The Bucks without Bogut are an afterthought. The Bulls have outplayed us recently, but we have more talent. The Heat are a joke and only have the 5 seed because their last 10 games were cupcake central. We have a decent squad, and he completely overlooked us.

If we drew anyone BUT the Magic, I think we would have a decent shot at winning the series. But after watching the games with Orlando, it is clear that we do not match up well and have little chance.

[teej]

But after watching the games with Orlando, it is clear that we do not match up well and have little chance.

:confused:

We played them very tightly all 3 games Jack played. The first one was Jack's first game, and we were in in until Vince hit an insane 3, they won 97-91. The second one went to OT. And most recently, we beat them without Nazr, Gana, Hughes, or CRASH.

We match up much better than we would with Boston and about as well as Cleveland or ATL.

[Ampsportsduo]

To be fair, Amp, that's a 12-4 January.

From February to now, we were 20-16.

Post ASG we're 18-13.

All arbitrary and all paint different pictures. That's my point.

It's like the 10 of 12 Magic wins that people keep mentioning. Walter Hermann was the leading scorer and Jeff McInnis played 30+ minutes in the first game in this "streak." It all means nothing. This series comes down to execution, not history because our roster has had too much change to establish a reliable track record against this Magic team.

[EC123]

I hope EEEEEEEEVERYBODY says the Bobcats will lose in 5 or 6.

That's the only way the Bobcats will come out strong.

If people say they have a chance, they will come out as poorly as they did last night.

They have to hear over and over again that they CANNOT DO IT.

That's how this team is. That's one reason they play better against the best teams.

So, keep picking Orlando in five.

That's what I want to keep hearing.

[davcbow]

ILBIT should be a good series no matter who wins it....:cool:

[jdsingar]

:confused:

We played them very tightly all 3 games Jack played. The first one was Jack's first game, and we were in in until Vince hit an insane 3, they won 97-91. The second one went to OT. And most recently, we beat them without Nazr, Gana, Hughes, or CRASH.

We match up much better than we would with Boston and about as well as Cleveland or ATL.

I went to the OT game and the Cats played fairly well, but Orlando had a decent lead for the majority of the game. We staged a great rally, but got dominated in OT. Early on, it was tough to watch because guys would drive the lane and either get rejected or just completely turn around. I believe Dwight had 10 blocks that game. Most of our offense relies on taking it straight to the basket, so I sense a real problem there. Moreover, that Orlando game was on the second half of a back to back for them, and I believe they were coming off of a tough one.

Boston has beaten the crap out of us, but I think we could wear them out. We probably wouldn't win that one either though. I do think we could beat ATL though.

[dav7z]

Im thinking we win at least two , Its going at least six games . If not seven , This should be the best match up of the first round in the east. I still belive we can stick it to them . We are a very dangerous team to play.

[Walt Cronkite]

Hollinger dropping some more Larry jokes instead of any analysis of our team. Maybe it's because... HE NEVER WATCHES OUR TEAM PLAY!

He watched every team at least 10 times and saw all of them live... except for the Bobcats. Was from a PER diem the other day.
And, as always, then there's the subjective component. On this front, I'll at least mention that I've put in the legwork. I saw all these teams play start-to-finish on the tube at least 10 times, and saw all but one of the top 17 defensive teams in person, most of them more than once. (Sorry, Bobcats, the schedule didn't work out for us this season. Maybe in the playoffs.) http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100406

I think it's funny that he accurately predicted that for us to make the playoffs, we'd have to have the top defense in the league to make up for our potentially league worst offense before the season began (and thus, pre Jackson), while some were predicting a top 4 finish in the East or a Division championship... but he's the out of touch one.

Anyway, in regards to this actual blurb, not much to see here. The shot at LB is pretty lame, but so is the media bringing up LB's potential interest in the Philly and Clipper jobs, but what else are those teams supposed to do but dream for the next couple of months?

I'm hoping we can keep up our stellar home record and push this series to 7. Fingers crossed for the upset!

[Ampsportsduo]

I think it's funny that he accurately predicted that for us to make the playoffs, we'd have to have the top defense in the league to make up for our potentially league worst offense before the season began (and thus, pre Jackson), while some were predicting a top 4 finish in the East or a Division championship... but he's the out of touch one.

He puts the numbers into a computer and his formulas indicated a playoff berth. I give him credit as a statistician, but not a basketball observer. It doesn't change the fact that I've been correct all year long that he just doesn't watch this team and his analysis shows it. There's only 16 playoff teams, he was predicting the Cats would make it and somehow he couldn't fit them into his viewing schedule? Forgive me for not praising him.

/Leaves his hand up

[Walt Cronkite]

He puts the numbers into a computer and his formulas indicated a playoff berth. I give him credit as a statistician, but not a basketball observer. It doesn't change the fact that I've been correct all year long that he just doesn't watch this team and his analysis shows it. There's only 16 playoff teams, he was predicting the Cats would make it and somehow he couldn't fit them into his viewing schedule? Forgive me for not praising him.

/Leaves his hand up


??? Reread what I wrote. Hollinger watched every team in the league AT LEAST 10 times. He also saw every team live, in person at least once, just not the Bobcats. Anyway, no, he didn't just plug numbers into his formula, his analysis was that our offense was going to be so bad that we'd probably have to have the best defense in the league to overcompensate.

/Leaves his hand up :facepalm: (b/c when I read your posts I'm in a perpetual state of facepalmedness)

[BRNC]

Both teams had good second halves and I expect a good series...I'd love it if our guys pull and upset...but I'd really like it to go 6-7...

[teej]

He puts the numbers into a computer and his formulas indicated a playoff berth. I give him credit as a statistician, but not a basketball observer. It doesn't change the fact that I've been correct all year long that he just doesn't watch this team and his analysis shows it. There's only 16 playoff teams, he was predicting the Cats would make it and somehow he couldn't fit them into his viewing schedule? Forgive me for not praising him.

/Leaves his hand up

Yeah Amp, Walt's right here. Hollinger's stats predicted us to have like 19 wins, but he wrote that we were able to make the playoffs. He didn't predict us as one of the 16, though.

However, the fact he couldn't even make it to a Hawks-'Cats game in Atlanta is somewhat sad.

[Ampsportsduo]

saw all but one of the top 17 defensive teams in person, most of them more than once.

So he made it a priority to watch the best defensive teams, most more than once and the one he didn't seem to find time to watch was the Bobcats? Coincidence? Hell no. You can talk about facepalm all you want, but it's pretty clear he hasn't respected this team all along and time and again his analysis, or should I say, cheap LB and MJ jokes showed it. My bad on misunderstanding your defense of him, but for the record, who was predicting a division championship? Over the Magic? Come on. You keep defending someone that has not offered any credible analysis on this team and now you're doing it by inventing arguments that no one was making? He loves Crash because he's a stat sheet stuffer, but beyond that he's shown very little respect to anyone on this team.

Walt, I know that you know your stuff (otherwise I would just ignore you), but you've said it yourself his player analysis is miles ahead of his team analysis, yet you seem to be self-appointed Hollinger defender (does that get you free Insider?) when the majority of his team analysis regarding the Cats has been off the mark. He's ripped almost every trade (Jack lone exception if memory serves), including the TC trade which QCH used Hollinger's own metrics to illustrate how it could be a good trade. I have no desire to derail this thread with TC/EO talk, but a healthy TC makes this team a lot more dangerous in this series. Hollinger was also on the DJ > Raymond bandwagon and considered Boris Diaw not even starter worthy going into this season. All these plus so much more have lead to me not putting a lot of stock in Hollinger's analysis and I do feel validated in questioning him along the way, instead of taking it as gospel because he works for ESPN. That's why I left my hand up.

BTW, what ever happened to your Curb Your Enthusiasm signature?