Bill Simmons: NBA's think, know and prove

[SWedd523]

Great read in general that had some little nuggets that I found interesting: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/part1/100416&sportCat=nba




I think Larry Brown could absolutely outcoach his first and second round opponents this spring. Stan Van Gundy in Round 1, Mike Woodson in Round 2 ... and Mike Brown looming in Round 3. I'm just sayin'.


I know Hedo Turkoglu was the 2009-10 LVP (Least Valuable Player)
~~~
Emeka Okafor (No. 2) deserves his own paragraph. His career arc looks like something you'd see from a guy in his mid-30's. His contract ($10.6 million this year, $38 million over the next three) is a salary cap tsunami for a small market team. He's a horrible match for a Hornets team that once loved having its big guys set picks for its point guards, then roll to the hoop for alley-oops. (Okafor can't do it. Not in his skill set.) Since he can't post up or shoot free throws, he's useless for them offensively. (According to hoopdata.com, he was a 38% shooter inside 10 feet.) Defensively, his shotblocking/rebounding numbers dipped and his athleticism made you think, "Wait, is that Theo Ratliff?" Maybe Okafor hasn't been a bust on the Pervis/Darko/Bowie/LaRue/Kwame/Oden (sorry, he has to be thrown in at least for now) level, but at the very least, he's been profoundly disappointing. I'm just glad I never wrote that Orlando should have taken him over Dwight Howard. (What?) (I did?!?!?!?!?) (Expunge that from my archives, ESPN.com editors! DO IT RIGHT NOW! I MEAN IT!)


NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
ROUND ONE
Cavs over Bulls in 4
Magic over Bobcats in 7
Hawks over Bucks in 5
Heat over Celtics in 7
Lakers over OKC in 6
Mavs over Spurs in 6
Suns over Blazers in 5
Jazz over Nuggets in 7


I can prove that you can't win four straight playoff series by relying on Vince Carter. You know why? Because he's Vince Carter! Ask the Nets fans about him. Ask the Raptors fans about him. They know.


I can prove that Magic fans just muttered to themselves, "We don't need to rely on Vince to win four straight series -- we had a +12.2 point differential after the All-Star Break, you jackass."

My counter to your muttering: Where are you going in the last three minutes of a tight game? Last spring, you cleared out for Hedo and let him create shots for himself or someone else. Worked all the way to the Finals. What about this spring? Dwight Howard takes ten shots a game and disappears down the stretch. According to 82games.com, Howard averaged 16.0 crunch-time points per 48 minutes, such a staggeringly low number that Al Horford (17.0) and Udonis Haslem (23.9) topped him, Andrew Bogut (16.0) tied him and Joakim Noah (15.6) nearly tied him. And that's fine. He was still the third-most valuable player in the league. (At least in my opinion.) But you can't win in the playoffs without someone creating quality shots in the last four minutes.

So where's it coming from? Jameer Nelson has slipped since his shoulder injury last season. Lewis's numbers have fallen off without Turkoglu. That leaves Vince. (See the sidebar to the right.) Is anyone buying this? What happens the first time someone gives him a hard playoff foul on a drive? What happens if he tweaks his ankle and has to play through pain? What happens if he has menstrual cramps? (Jokes! I'm joking. Stop it. Settle down.) What happens (hypothetically) in a Game 6 in Charlotte or Atlanta, with Orlando trailing 3 games to 2 and facing a giant upset, tie game, two minutes to play, win or go home? Who gets the ball? Who takes over? Who is everyone looking at and saying, "Save us?" That's right … Vince Carter. The most disappointing superstar of his generation.
~~~
I am a pessimist. At least when Vince is involved. Even playing for his most talented team ever, I can prove that he will destroy them in the end. Why? Because he's Vince Carter. Did you miss the last 12 years or something? Why do you think Orlando got him for 20 cents on the dollar? Why do you think Toronto fans still jeer him lustily even though he left six years ago? Why do you think Kidd pushed for a trade to Dallas? Orlando fans, remember we had this conversation when there's a big playoff game in a few weeks and Vince is rolling around on the floor like he's been shot as you're screaming, "Get up! GET UP VINCE! HE BARELY FOULED YOU! IT'S GAME SEVEN! GET THE EFF UP!!!!!!!!!!!!"

[jdsingar]

Yes, that was a very good read. Simmons is easily my favorite sportswriter. I like the bit about Okafor. It is debatable as to whether we got the best out of that trade in the short term. Okafor provides steady rebounds and low, reliable scoring. But the fact that we can even have a discussion about the short term effects of the trade are very telling.

The bit on Vince Carter is absolutely right. There's no way anyone is getting in the way of Cleveland this year as long as the second best team has VC as their clutch performer. Without Hedo's clutch performances last year, the Magic don't make the finals. Well guess what...they will be without any clutch performances this year.

Not that keeping Hedo would have been the better option. LVP...haha.

[Chef]

be very careful fellow planeteers. before the "i love simmons" stuff comes in, many are on record as him being a complete tool when he was critical of the cats and called us a joke.

[spectre]

Nice find Swedd!

I'm starting to wonder if that Memphis rumor was true after all (Mek for 4th + we wanted to include Nazr)...maybe the deal we took was really the best deal out there?

On Lewis...well, I always come back to this:

http://i229.photobucket.com/albums/ee136/bobcats_spectre/wallace_rashard_chart_tz.jpg

[jdsingar]

That picture is hilarious. Lewis is way overpaid, and it is going to hurt now that he is on the downside of his career. He is young in age but high on mileage.

As for Simmons hating on the Cats, do we have any references there? If he was calling us a joke during the Sam Vincent era and prior, he would probably be right. Simmons is the wittiest writer out there. He thinks of the most random stuff, and I love it when he brings up comparisons to former players and such.

[Keetch]

I've printed this article out for later reading, but on Simmons, I've got to say that overall I like his writing. But, like nearly all sports writers (Hollinger recently), under deadline he'll revert to some easy cheap shots based on simple impressions over reality.

And I don't read any of his articles concerning the Celtics (BLEEEECH).

I've got a serious feeling that the Cats will give the Magic fits in this series:

- our frontline may not have a marquee name on it; but you KNOW that our guys are going to make sure Dwight earns everything. Howard's an incredible player; but he's not a huge competitor.

- I'm praying that Larry Hughes is reigned in and doesn't burn us with wasted possessions. I've been a Hughes fan since his days as a St. Louis U. Billiken, but understand his offensive limitations in the NBA. Worried.

- Carter and Lewis are boom and bust players and lack the toughness of Wallace, Jackson and even Diaw (did I just say Diaw? MAN has this roster come full around or what?). We can get into their heads; especially at home. But can we do that in Orlando? Probably not :P but we only need to do it once.

- If the Magic win this thing, it'll be because of their outside shooting. They're clearly superior at that and have depth to put shooter after shooter on the floor. As a Bobcat it'll be frightening (I can't look!)

- The Bobcats HAVE to play efficiently with Jackson/Wallace leading the way and Felton/Augustin filling the gaps with daggers. Tyrus, Tyson and even Theo have to be athletic in the paint annoying Howard as much as possible.

[teej]

Simmons is ESPN's best writer, and is more often right than wrong. I don't think anyone can say David Kahn was a better choice than Simmons for the Minny GM job, and had Postolos bought the 'Cats, I would've tried like hell to get Simmons into the GM running here. He's brilliant, and is stat-heavy enough to show it, but is also witty enough to be entertaining (take note, Hollinger). And anything he said about us being a joke prior to LB was right. I've read/listened to him ever since LB came on board, and I don't remember him bashing the team.

[fatlever]

for any of you super-hardcore NBA history fans out there... i highly recommend simmon's book "the book of basketball". its amazingly awesome. you will not be disappointed and you will learn more about the NBA than you ever imagined. go get it.

[Felton for Prez]

for any of you super-hardcore NBA history fans out there... i highly recommend simmon's book "the book of basketball". its amazingly awesome. you will not be disappointed and you will learn more about the NBA than you ever imagined. go get it.

I bought the book but its huge. Is it an easy read? I'm not all that excited about a 700+ pg book.

[Dunk]

Simmons stinks.

[teej]

Simmons stinks.

You've met him? Funny, B.O. never came out as one of his problems :p

Then again, if I got paid over a million dollars a year to write comedic sports articles, I wouldn't care about my appearance that much either. :biggrin:

[TheBeagle]

Nice find Swedd!

I'm starting to wonder if that Memphis rumor was true after all (Mek for 4th + we wanted to include Nazr)...maybe the deal we took was really the best deal out there?

On Lewis...well, I always come back to this:

http://i229.photobucket.com/albums/ee136/bobcats_spectre/wallace_rashard_chart_tz.jpg spectre, did you find that pic from the BCP forum archives? I ask because I vaguley remember imbedding a link to a similar (if not the same pic) in one of my first posts as a member back in summer '07. I'm enough of an archive dork, I think I'll go back and check, but regardless, it was as appropriate and true then as it is now....

Keetcher! Glad to hear from you, man. Great analysis as usual.

And also as usual, fatlever speaks from the mouth of god....if you at all like NBA history (and I love it), it's an absolute must-have for the vaunted "Throne" library ;) to browse through at your leisure.


EDIT: OH NO! I can't go back farther than my last 500 posts! So my soothsaying post on drafting JD and the Lewis/GW chart is lost forever! Say it ain't so, ziggy...

[spectre]

Heh, nah...I just remembered and did a google search on "gerald wallace, rashard lewis, WTF" and it came right up.

I have it in my photobucket account now...so you'll probably be seeing it more often!

[Toocool]

Nice find Swedd!

I'm starting to wonder if that Memphis rumor was true after all (Mek for 4th + we wanted to include Nazr)...maybe the deal we took was really the best deal out there?

On Lewis...well, I always come back to this:

http://i229.photobucket.com/albums/ee136/bobcats_spectre/wallace_rashard_chart_tz.jpg
Brilliant find that picture.
It is utterly hilarious...gotta love how Gdub beats Shard in almost every aspect.

[spectre]

It really needs to be updated as Crash's numbers have gotten better and Lewis' have gotten slightly worse.

Even more of a steal!

Seriously...dollar for dollar Crash probably has one of the best non rookie deals from a team's standpoint in the league.

[G Force]

from December, 2009; Bill Simmons on the Bobcats...


VP's Take: I don't mind watching these guys. They play hard, they're well-coached and Gerald Wallace's rebounding binge ranks up there with Kevin Porter's being a four-time assist leader and E.C. Coleman making first-team All-Defense as one of the most random NBA things that's ever happened. If the Bobcats upgraded Boris Diaw ($27 million through 2012), they might even be a mildly frisky Round 1 opponent. On the flip side, they're leading the league in Monets and paying $50.5 million combined through 2011 to Tyson Chandler, DeSagana Diop and Nazr Mohammed … or as they're more commonly known, "50.5 Million That We Should Have Just Set On Fire." (Important note: Did you know Diop will earn $7.342 million just for the 2012-13 season? I think the Mark Cuban Big Man Scholarship Fund is my favorite NBA charity. The NBA really DOES care.)
• Mitigating Factor: Larry Brown is permanently wired in "short-term right now we gotta fix this and get better!" mode, only they're getting destroyed financially and can only hope to win 37 to 40 games (good enough to make the playoffs in the crappy Eastern Conference, but still).
• VP's Verdict: Go for it this year and tank long-term. For example …
Fake Trade 4A: Diaw, D.J. Augustin and Gerald Henderson to Phoenix for Amar'e Stoudemire and Taylor Griffin (cap throw-in). Charlotte satiates Brown's short-term competitive disorder, gets a 20-point scorer AND gets out of Diaw's deal. If Amar'e leaves after the season, so be it. Phoenix saves $6 million (including the tax), adds two young assets and gets something for Amar'e. One danger: Steve Nash pulls a "BROOKS WAS HERE" in his hotel room when he hears about the trade. Otherwise, I like it.
Fake Trade 4B: Tyson Chandler and Gerald Wallace to the Clippers for Marcus Camby, Al Thornton and the Rasual Butler/Ricky Davis ECs. Camby is a one-year upgrade on Chandler who replaces Wallace's rebounding; Thornton/Butler could replace Wallace's scoring; and the deal saves Charlotte $3 million-plus this year, then another $20 million next year. Again, have you seen their home games? They hosted Detroit on Tuesday, and it looked as if there was "Get Your Own Row Night."

[Chef]

I bought the book but its huge. Is it an easy read? I'm not all that excited about a 700+ pg book.

great book. it has been flagged "a'la seinfeld". i have a general rule about once a piece of reading material is flagged it can not leave the bathroom unless it is a garbage can. this book was the only one to break the rule or else it would have taken me decades to read it.

as for his column in part 2, i would have definitely put Charlotte in the chemistry column.

[Ampsportsduo]

Emeka Okafor (No. 2) deserves his own paragraph. His career arc looks like something you'd see from a guy in his mid-30's. His contract ($10.6 million this year, $38 million over the next three) is a salary cap tsunami for a small market team. He's a horrible match for a Hornets team that once loved having its big guys set picks for its point guards, then roll to the hoop for alley-oops. (Okafor can't do it. Not in his skill set.) Since he can't post up or shoot free throws, he's useless for them offensively. (According to hoopdata.com, he was a 38% shooter inside 10 feet.) Defensively, his shotblocking/rebounding numbers dipped and his athleticism made you think, "Wait, is that Theo Ratliff?" Maybe Okafor hasn't been a bust on the Pervis/Darko/Bowie/LaRue/Kwame/Oden (sorry, he has to be thrown in at least for now) level, but at the very least, he's been profoundly disappointing

Who doesn't want to invest $52 million over the next four years for this guy? Seriously.

I just resisted the urge to post in the EO for TC thread (I'm trying to show restraint so Walt won't facepalm).

[fatlever]

I bought the book but its huge. Is it an easy read? I'm not all that excited about a 700+ pg book.

yeah its an easy read. something you read a few pages at a time. im about halfway through. i knocked out about 200 pages at the beach last week. now im back to ready a few pages each day. once you get through the first 50 pages (which is mainly about his childhood as a celtics fan, wilt vs russell and "the secret of basketball" as told by isiah thomas at a topless pool in las vegas", the book breaks down into lots of short segments.