Stern Expects 2010 Cap to be 56.1 Million

[spectre]

Per Ken Berger of CBS via RGM Wiretap (http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/66010/20100416/stern_expects_10_11_cap_to_be_at_$561m/#)


David Stern places revised '10-'11 cap figure at $56.1 million, a boon to teams pursuing free agents. Stern's new cap estimate is up dramatically from last summer's projection of $50.4M-$53.6M.

It's based on a 0.5 pct decline in league revenue (BRI), source tells CBSSports.com. Previous estimates feared a 2.5-5 pct. decline.

That's 1.6 million lower than this year (57.7 million) which will mean we should see a relative drop in the LT from 69.92 million to around 68.32 million.


Great news!!!

[teej]

Very good news. Especially for Raymond and Tyrus.

[mj4life]

we should be able to bring back everybody if they want to be here and be right at the lux tax limit. would like to see what this team can do with a little more time together

[CatNation]

bring back everyone but hughes...resign flip.

[spectre]

In order to retain TT & Felton we'll still go over. 59 + TT's QO is still 65. If we gave Felton a convention contract it should start in the 5-5.5 range and that would be 70+ million.

It's still a lot better having to lose 2 million vs 5 million before the next deadline to get under the LT. You can do that with the 80% + 100k rule in trades...meaning we shouldn't have to trade an asset for relief.

[Toocool]

In order to retain TT & Felton we'll still go over. 59 + TT's QO is still 65. If we gave Felton a convention contract it should start in the 5-5.5 range and that would be 70+ million.

It's still a lot better having to lose 2 million vs 5 million before the next deadline to get under the LT. You can do that with the 80% + 100k rule in trades...meaning we shouldn't have to trade an asset for relief.

Spec (or anyone else), can you explain to me why the LT threshold lowering is good?

I will be first to admit I know jackall about Luxury Tax...and about cap situations too :facepalm:

[spectre]

A lowered LT isn't good, but the estimates before now was that it was going to be about 5-7 million lower.

We're sitting at around 59 million with 10 players. We need around 6.3 to QO TT (that pushes our salary to around 65.3) and around 5-5.5 for a starting salary for Felton assuming he gets around 7 per average on a conventional deal (figure 10% raises...lower at the beginning of his contract and higher in the latter stages). That would put our salary right at/just above 70 million.

By working a trade and taking back less (which you're allowed to do; trades have to be within 80% + 100k of each other, so theoretically you can move a 10 million salary for 8.1 million) you can get below the LT fairly easily.

That's MUCH easier than trying to make up 5 or 6 million.

And again...we don't have to be under the LT until the end of the season, so a trade to get that extra relief doesn't have to happen until next year's trade deadline. We CAN be over the LT during the season with no penalty.

[mj4life]

i think with TT qualifying offer we are at 59 million on next years cap, if felton gets a contract starting in the 7 million range that puts us at 65 million with a few million left to add lower level players. and with chandler and mohammed having expiring contracts we could go a number of routes to get under the tax by the trade deadline.

[mj4life]

A lowered LT isn't good, but the estimates before now was that it was going to be about 5-7 million lower.

We're sitting at around 59 million with 10 players. We need around 6.3 to QO TT (that pushes our salary to around 65.3) and around 5-5.5 for a starting salary for Felton assuming he gets around 7 per average on a conventional deal (figure 10% raises...lower at the beginning of his contract and higher in the latter stages). That would put our salary right at/just above 70 million.

By working a trade and taking back less (which you're allowed to do; trades have to be within 80% + 100k of each other, so theoretically you can move a 10 million salary for 8.1 million) you can get below the LT fairly easily.

That's MUCH easier than trying to make up 5 or 6 million.

And again...we don't have to be under the LT until the end of the season, so a trade to get that extra relief doesn't have to happen until next year's trade deadline. We CAN be over the LT during the season with no penalty.
we could also buyout nazr contract at the trade deadline and bring him back if needed

[bing!]

http://i42.tinypic.com/24lvg3s.png

Yeah, Stern is full of it.

[Fred Williamson]

"bring back everyone but hughes...resign flip"

co-signed

[spankymoore7]

I believe with keeping UPS and offering TT, we will be at about 66 million. Resigning felton would certainly put us in luxury tax land. The good thing is we would have until the end of the season to get it figured out

One option would be to find a team with cap space, and trade a large expiring contract for a longer, smaller per year deal. For example, chandler to sacramento for nocioni. We can do this since sac is under the cap. Would give sacramento a ton of space a year from now, they move nocioni who wants out(gonna be hard to move a guy making that kind of money), and they get a servicable, motivated big in a contract year. We would save 5.75 million this year, which would get us really really close to the luxury tax line with felton resigned, only slight adjustments to get there. We have a lot of centers, so i think we would be ok, especially if we play diaw at center with TT at the 4. Yes we take on more money long term(nocioni is guaranteed through 2012, with a team option for '12-'13), but we would get mohammad coming off in a year so we wont be in too bad shape.

[spectre]

Yeah, we're between 65-66 WITH TT's qualifying offer.

With us being within a couple million of the LT we won't need to do one of those salary dumping trades unless it's fiscally prudent to do so. Now we can look at a trade that will make us better AND bring us under the LT.

[spectre]

http://blogs.charlotte.com/inside_the_nba/2010/04/some-thoughts-entering-game-1.html


The day he was formally announced as majority owner, Jordan hinted the Bobcats might have to make a trade this summer that might not look great basketball-wise, but which is valuable in cap management. They already did one of those last summer in the Tyson Chandler-Emeka Okafor deal.

I don't think I realized Jordan actually hinted that...tho we've all been beating this idea around for a while now.

Maybe now with the new projections we can focus more on value vs salary in a potential trade.

[ammofan]

I say maybe let Ray walk....sign another good pg to back up DJ. Then resign Hughes and Tyrus, dump Stevie Graham and resign Flip.

[BRNC]

spectre...quick question...

I know we have to be "under" when next season ends...but Chandler and Nazzy both expire don't they come off the books the day the "season" ends?

[spectre]

spectre...quick question...

I know we have to be "under" when next season ends...but Chandler and Nazzy both expire don't they come off the books the day the "season" ends?

If only. Nah, their salary for the 2010/2011 season will be added in with all the rest.

Wouldn't we want to cash out on TC's huge expiring anyway? Jordan has already stated his position in regards to acquiring talent...well a big expiring has been a very nice asset to have lately.

I really don't think it's going to be a big deal anymore.

[BRNC]

Thanks spectre...but if we can "cash out" TC and take significantly less back in salary we could get under the luxury tax...would be nice...:rolleyes:

[SWedd523]

Why don't we make a deal with Tyson. Let us buy your contract out for $5mil. Then resign you for a longer contract in a month or however long we're supposed to wait, starting at $6mil.

He get's his $11mil full salary, we get the difference in cap relief and avoid going over the limit. :g:






;)

[superb1]

i liked that idea if we can do this, if Theo retires I say sign Flip and keep everyone else also.

[Marvel]

I also don't understand the LT but this has to be a good thing.Like Spec said we can now focus more on value vs salary through trades.

[BRNC]

If we are going to use Tyson as a "value" trade chip we need to keep Theo...trading Tyson would leave us with Nazr (is fine with me) and Diop:facepalm:...not much depth so Theo would be an important keep if Tyson is a trade chip...:g:

[spectre]

Keeping Theo is a no brainer at the vet min. We could also bring back Hughes or Flip plus probably another cheap deal.

I think cashing out on TC was their plan all along. Don't forget we can also get some value from Nazr too.

Marvel...it's not a good thing for us as a team in general. What is a good thing is that it's not as low as it was being projected all thru the season. They were saying earlier that it was going to be about 4-5 million less than they are saying now.