Bonnell's blog on the summer league prospects

[Veteran_Picksetter]

I thought this was a nice little read considering how boring the summer has been for Bobcat fans--apart from rampant speculation. It's just too bad Rick could not get the month right.

http://blogs.charlotte.com/inside_the_nba/2010/07/an-earlyjune-bobcats-scrimmage.html

Bonnell really nailed Ajinca's problems here. He can't read plays well enough to react. Guys, A.A. is simply not a basketball player. (MY words, not Rick's) When other kids were learning the game during crucial developmental years, Ajinca was BMX-ing or whatever. I fear that he'll never overcome that.

Also, should we start getting used to Shawne Williams and Nathan Jawai in Bobcats uniforms?

late edit: Observer corrected the headline from "early June" to "early July".

[ND22]

If Ajinca doesn't even have a feel for the game, that's a major problem and doesn't give me a lot of confidence in him.

[Demon DeaCat]

With just a quick head count, we've only got 11 guys under contract. If I'm not mistaken we're required to carry a minimum of 13 so we'll have to sign at least 2 guys. I'd love for one of them to be Flip, but I'm doutbfull we can even afford him. One spot will obviously have to be a PG, if we don't address that through a trade. So if it was between Jawai and Williams, strictly based on Bonnell's write up, I'd like to see us go with Jawai. If you can get your hands on a young center with potential you have to give him a shot. I don't care how many we currently have. 2 of our 3 centers may not even be here after this year and the other one can't play, so if there's any chance this guy is servicable he deserves a roster spot.

Very disappointing report on Ajinca.

[BRNC]

LB made clear last year this guy (AA) would not play for him so no one should be surprised...it was a wasted pick...nothing more...nothing less...

I hope someone shows some promise from SL...I could care less if it is another center...might help us pull a deal if we have another in the wings...then we could afford to use TC or Nazr to bring back someone (hopefully) to fill a need...

[Veteran_Picksetter]

I'm most intrigued by Shawne Williams. Okay, so he's had behavior problems. Some kids grow out of that before it's too late.

6'9" with a 7'3" wingspan. Combo forward possibilities. Versatility is important in this league for teams who can't spend the big bucks.

[WAM9]

I'm not a Bonnell hater like a lot of folks. As a matter of fact, I think Bonnell gets way over-critiqued a lot of the times but...

There is no way I can have an inteligent conversation about Ajinca, Williams or anyone else at the summer scrimage based on an assessment from Bonnell. He has shown on way to many occasions to really not have a firm grasp on the finer points of basketball.

Is what he is reporting actually true or just something to fill a blog with? Who knows...and that is my point.

I will have to wait until I see these guys for myself to have an opinion.

[GoBobs]

I'm not a Bonnell hater like a lot of folks. As a matter of fact, I think Bonnell gets way over-critiqued a lot of the times but...

There is no way I can have an inteligent conversation about Ajinca, Williams or anyone else at the summer scrimage based on an assessment from Bonnell. He has shown on way to many occasions to really not have a firm grasp on the finer points of basketball.

Is what he is reporting actually true or just something to fill a blog with? Who knows...and that is my point.

I will have to wait until I see these guys for myself to have an opinion.

+1

although I will not be terribly surprised if he is right

[Veteran_Picksetter]

I'm not a Bonnell hater like a lot of folks. As a matter of fact, I think Bonnell gets way over-critiqued a lot of the times but...

There is no way I can have an inteligent conversation about Ajinca, Williams or anyone else at the summer scrimage based on an assessment from Bonnell. He has shown on way to many occasions to really not have a firm grasp on the finer points of basketball.

Is what he is reporting actually true or just something to fill a blog with? Who knows...and that is my point.

I will have to wait until I see these guys for myself to have an opinion.


You know, I DO wonder sometimes whether Bonnell ever actually PLAYED the game of basketball at any level, however....

I think he's on point about Ajinca. He basically articulated what I've felt about Ajinca everytime I saw him play.

Further with Bonnell: I've enjoyed some of his writing. But he definitely gets it wrong sometimes. He was a big proponent of DJ Augustin early on. Here's one example in his answer to the first question here:

http://www.bobcatsweb.com/news/the-charlotte-observer-n-c-rick-bonnell-column-answers-to-bobcats-questions-.php?act=print

Now we're looking at whether Augustin can even start in this league, while the question on Lopez is whether he'll be an All-Star.

To think that we might have been worried about how Lopez would have gelled with Okafor. Lopez would have made Okafor expendable within a matter of months.

[dnbman]

ON SPORTS WRITING:
Most writers probably fall within 5 points of .500 on their predictions and analysis on any topic that is debateable. Sports isn't science. There are trends and statistics that give us guesses. That's it. Nothing is unquestionably repeatable. As they say, "on any given Sunday..." That being said, I think Bonnell is in line with most sports writers; we just judge him a lot more than any other sports writer.

ON AJINCA:
Brown was the one who wanted Ajinca. I don't think Brown gave up on him, so much as told him that he wouldn't play unless he made some changes. Of course, if there's a quote to the contrary, I'd like to see it.

ON SUMMER LEAGUE:
A few days of summer league is not a good way to evaluate talent from anyone. However, we all want some news, and insights about those days is better than nothing.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

The Augustin/Lopez mistake was glaringly obvious to a lot of us amateurs from the start. But Bonnell didn't get it.

In fact, Bonnell and I traded "testy" emails about it. :)

Now he has no choice but to admit the Bobcats failed that night.

[dnbman]

The Augustin/Lopez mistake was glaringly obvious to a lot of us amateurs from the start. But Bonnell didn't get it.

In fact, Bonnell and I traded "testy" emails about it. :)

Now he has no choice but to admit the Bobcats failed that night.

What was glaringly obvious about it? Many thought Augustin was the best pg in the draft. Many considered Lopez a stiff big that would be the C equivalent of Adam Morrison, which is why Lopez slid in the weeks preceeding the draft.

More to the point, even those that nail a specific instance like Augustin/Lopez will miss others. Case in point: Oden vs. Durant. Virtually everyone picked Oden as the 1st pick because the C vs. wing hierarchy, even if Durant was "1a," as people called it. The people that claimed Durant was the true better player can say how they understood the players better now, but what if Oden doesn't get hurt? What if Lopez plays with Okafor and they don't work out?

There are too many variables, and anyone claiming to know for certain what is going to happen is either lying or delusional.

[SWedd523]

I don't understand where all the hypocrisy comes from. We certainly couldn't have drafted Lopez after giving Okafor his massive contract. The two couldn't play together and the FO recognized that and decided that Okafor was the better bet than Lopez.

In DJ's rookie year he more than performed capably. The kid put up fantastic numbers whenever he was given the opportunity to start.

In fact, all during his rookie year the majority of people on here were on HIS bandwagon. Start DJ. Trade Ray. Then he comes out and has a lackluster year and everybody starts saying how bad he is and how he can't be a starter.

Stop being hypocrites and stop trying to cover your tracks after the fact.

[Plowright]

2 points:

1) Why dont we just wait and see how Ajinca does in SL before saying he is a failure

2) Rick Bonnell is not going to write loads of story's about how we made a huge mistake in the draft with Lopez even if we did, he will always put a positive spin on it.

[dnbman]

2) Rick Bonnell is not going to write loads of story's about how we made a huge mistake in the draft with Lopez even if we did, he will always put a positive spin on it.

I'm not sure that's true either. In fact, many people used to wonder why he hated the Bobcats so much and couldn't say anything positive about the Bobcats.

I think Bonnell is actually consistently level headed. He writes about his opinions, but he tries to always separate the hype from reality.

For a local sports beat writer, I think he actually does a much better job than people give him credit, especially in our age of hyper connectivity, where a guy sneezes and half the world knows about it before the spray hits the floor.

[Demon DeaCat]

What was glaringly obvious about it? Many thought Augustin was the best pg in the draft. Many considered Lopez a stiff big that would be the C equivalent of Adam Morrison, which is why Lopez slid in the weeks preceeding the draft.

More to the point, even those that nail a specific instance like Augustin/Lopez will miss others. Case in point: Oden vs. Durant. Virtually everyone picked Oden as the 1st pick because the C vs. wing hierarchy, even if Durant was "1a," as people called it. The people that claimed Durant was the true better player can say how they understood the players better now, but what if Oden doesn't get hurt? What if Lopez plays with Okafor and they don't work out?

There are too many variables, and anyone claiming to know for certain what is going to happen is either lying or delusional.

This is a great post. There was certainly plently of logic behind taking DJ over Lopez. 2 years after the fact that doesn't look like the best decision, but at the time it made plenty of sense. As was said, it's not as if Lopez was a can't miss prospect. After all, eight other teams passed on him too. And it's also not like DJ was a reach. I totally agree that once all the scouting is done, it's still a lot of guess work.

With all that said, I'm not convinced that DJ still can't be a good player in this league, or even a capable starter. I know I'm in the minority with that opinion, but we didn't all just imagine his rookie year. He's got some limitations, but he did some great things 2 years ago and he's capable of doing that again. Barring some late summer maneuvering by the FO, it's looking like he'll get his shot. I hope for his sake and ours, he proves the naysayers wrong.

[CatNation]

Lopez is a great player.




On a team that won 12 games.

[ND22]

Lopez is a great player.




On a team that won 12 games.

Good, good point. Its called stat stuffing. He's the 2nd option on a terrible team, he plays insane minutes, he's going to get good stats. I'm not saying he isn't a capable player but...you get my point.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

What was glaringly obvious about it? Many thought Augustin was the best pg in the draft. Many considered Lopez a stiff big that would be the C equivalent of Adam Morrison, which is why Lopez slid in the weeks preceeding the draft.

More to the point, even those that nail a specific instance like Augustin/Lopez will miss others. Case in point: Oden vs. Durant. Virtually everyone picked Oden as the 1st pick because the C vs. wing hierarchy, even if Durant was "1a," as people called it. The people that claimed Durant was the true better player can say how they understood the players better now, but what if Oden doesn't get hurt? What if Lopez plays with Okafor and they don't work out?

There are too many variables, and anyone claiming to know for certain what is going to happen is either lying or delusional.

I beg your pardon. I watched a lot of PAC-10 ball during Lopez's college days, since Ryan Anderson, Kevin Love, Jordan Hill, Robin Lopez, and Devon Hardin were also in the league. I was sold on the guy by the time the measurements came out.

1. Center is the one position where it's okay to possibly be a stiff, especially when you have massive length and bone structure the way Lopez does. Think Brad Daugherty, who did well when the Center position was REALLY athletic in the NBA.

2. DJ is way undersized AND he can't jump very well. In general, 5'11" guys need to be elite athletes to warrant a lottery pick. Look at the other undersized PG's who actually do well. They are simply better overall athletes than DJ is. Chris Paul and Nate Robinson get up way higher. Jameer Nelson is built like a tank with a quicker shot release. Aaron Brooks is way quicker. Bobcats scouts need to take this kind of stuff into consideration. But they seemed to have liked college all-stars with physical limitations year after year.

3. Who in their right mind thought DJ Augustin was better than Derrick Rose, or even combo guard OJ Mayo for that matter? Not to mention Russell Westbrook. You've got to be kidding me, dnbman.

4. A lot of us over at the Charlotte Observer's forum were screaming "should have been Lopez/Chalmers!" as soon as that draft went down. We knew what was up.

5. You'll never catch me saying "I told you so" on Adam Morrison, or many other botched picks. I honestly didn't research that pick. But I knew enough about Lopez to be seriously bummed out on draft night 2008.

6. You asked, "What if Lopez plays with Okafor and they don't work out?"

Who cares? The point of the draft is to add quality assets, whether they fit an immediate positional need or not. That roster was messed up anyway they way we DID draft. Lopez was clearly more valued around the league than DJ Augustin.

Draft a Lopez, realize he's the real deal, and then all of a sudden Emeka is possibly expendable.....OR, you simply don't take on that ridiculous Diop contract later in the season because you have big Brook Lopez for the dirt cheap rookie salary.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

I don't understand where all the hypocrisy comes from. We certainly couldn't have drafted Lopez after giving Okafor his massive contract. The two couldn't play together and the FO recognized that and decided that Okafor was the better bet than Lopez.

In DJ's rookie year he more than performed capably. The kid put up fantastic numbers whenever he was given the opportunity to start.

In fact, all during his rookie year the majority of people on here were on HIS bandwagon. Start DJ. Trade Ray. Then he comes out and has a lackluster year and everybody starts saying how bad he is and how he can't be a starter.

Stop being hypocrites and stop trying to cover your tracks after the fact.

I'm not being a hypocrite. I was never on the DJ bandwagon. I wanted Lopez from day one, and I've always maintained that.

And yes, we could have drafted Lopez with Emeka getting that massive contract. Remember, Brook is getting paid a rookie salary. What's wrong with paying a rookie salary to a backup Center (Lopez) who might even be better than your starting Center at the time (Emeka)? It's not like we had any massive 7-footers on the team at the time. Draft Lopez and Chalmers, then you never even think about adding Diop's ridiculous contract to the team.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

Good, good point. Its called stat stuffing. He's the 2nd option on a terrible team, he plays insane minutes, he's going to get good stats. I'm not saying he isn't a capable player but...you get my point.

He's also on a team where the defense can severely focus on him every night. Yet he still gets it done.

Also, he blocks a ton of shots.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

This is a great post. There was certainly plently of logic behind taking DJ over Lopez. 2 years after the fact that doesn't look like the best decision, but at the time it made plenty of sense. As was said, it's not as if Lopez was a can't miss prospect. After all, eight other teams passed on him too. And it's also not like DJ was a reach. I totally agree that once all the scouting is done, it's still a lot of guess work.

With all that said, I'm not convinced that DJ still can't be a good player in this league, or even a capable starter. I know I'm in the minority with that opinion, but we didn't all just imagine his rookie year. He's got some limitations, but he did some great things 2 years ago and he's capable of doing that again. Barring some late summer maneuvering by the FO, it's looking like he'll get his shot. I hope for his sake and ours, he proves the naysayers wrong.

The bottom line is, you have to draft a player with the appropriate LENGTH and size for his position.

DJ, being 5'11" with a 7'11"ish standing reach, was not gonna be anything special considering that he also lacks world class athleticism, with a slow release on his shot. Heck, he's not even a fully skill-setted PG. We basically got ourselves a SG who's undersized for even the PG position.

[dnbman]

I beg your pardon. I watched a lot of PAC-10 ball during Lopez's college days, since Ryan Anderson, Kevin Love, Jordan Hill, Robin Lopez, and Devon Hardin were also in the league. I was sold on the guy by the time the measurements came out.

1. Center is the one position where it's okay to possibly be a stiff, especially when you have massive length and bone structure the way Lopez does. Think Brad Daugherty, who did well when the Center position was REALLY athletic in the NBA.

2. DJ is way undersized AND he can't jump very well. In general, 5'11" guys need to be elite athletes to warrant a lottery pick. Look at the other undersized PG's who actually do well. They are simply better overall athletes than DJ is. Chris Paul and Nate Robinson get up way higher. Jameer Nelson is built like a tank with a quicker shot release. Aaron Brooks is way quicker. Bobcats scouts need to take this kind of stuff into consideration. But they seemed to have liked college all-stars with physical limitations year after year.

3. Who in their right mind thought DJ Augustin was better than Derrick Rose, or even combo guard OJ Mayo for that matter? Not to mention Russell Westbrook. You've got to be kidding me, dnbman.

4. A lot of us over at the Charlotte Observer's forum were screaming "should have been Lopez/Chalmers!" as soon as that draft went down. We knew what was up.

5. You'll never catch me saying "I told you so" on Adam Morrison, or many other botched picks. I honestly didn't research that pick. But I knew enough about Lopez to be seriously bummed out on draft night 2008.

6. You asked, "What if Lopez plays with Okafor and they don't work out?"

Who cares? The point of the draft is to add quality assets, whether they fit an immediate positional need or not. That roster was messed up anyway they way we DID draft. Lopez was clearly more valued around the league than DJ Augustin.

Draft a Lopez, realize he's the real deal, and then all of a sudden Emeka is possibly expendable.....OR, you simply don't take on that ridiculous Diop contract later in the season because you have big Brook Lopez for the dirt cheap rookie salary.

You're missing the point. Who cares if you were right about this one? You took an educated guess that happened to work out. I'll bet if you had to write about an NBA column, you wouldn't get all of the educated guesses right. I didn't want DJ either. I would have rather had Lopez. It doesn't matter. It's one isolated instance. We don't keep a record of all of the things Bonnell gets right. We just foam at the mouth and post links to old columns when he gets it wrong.

Great sports writers aren't the ones that predict. Great sports writers are the ones that explain what already has been in an insightful way. That's why most of the credible sports writers are saying "we don't know" about free agency, because they don't! Instead, they're reporting how things COULD happen and what sources are telling them.

[Demon DeaCat]

The bottom line is, you have to draft a player with the appropriate LENGTH and size for his position.

DJ, being 5'11" with a 7'11"ish standing reach, was not gonna be anything special considering that he also lacks world class athleticism, with a slow release on his shot. Heck, he's not even a fully skill-setted PG. We basically got ourselves a SG who's undersized for even the PG position.

And despite being 5'11" with a 7'11"ish standing reach and lacking world class athleticism, he still had a heck of a rookie year. The point is that it isn't an exact science. You need look no further than the NFL to see that the combine mentality doesn't always acurately predict who will pan out and who won't. DJ's had one good year and one that was sub-par. IMO, it's still too early to say what kind of player he'll become.

The other point is that reasonable minds can disagree. I thought it was idiotic to trade for Diop, regardless of our concerns about depth at that position. I said so as soon as it happened. It looks like I was right about that one, but the fact that we made that trade and that LB pushed for it doesn't mean LB is an idiot, nor does it mean I'm John Wooden. To dnbman's point, sometimes you get it right and sometimes you don't.

[DY_nasty]

Oh no - a guy didn't bring playoff intensity to a summer league scrimmage

Waste of a pick, fire everyone, boycott the season

[Plowright]

But they seemed to have liked college all-stars with physical limitations year after year.

[/QUOTE]

So what are Derrick Brown and Gerald Henderson??? physical limitations? i think not. 1-0....

[GoBobs]

2. DJ is way undersized AND he can't jump very well. In general, 5'11" guys need to be elite athletes to warrant a lottery pick. Look at the other undersized PG's who actually do well. They are simply better overall athletes than DJ is. Chris Paul and Nate Robinson get up way higher. Jameer Nelson is built like a tank with a quicker shot release. Aaron Brooks is way quicker.

What about Steve Nash or John Stockton? The jury is still out on DJ, lets see what he does next year. I agree he doesn't have the tools to be a top defender, but he can still turn into a great player.

[BETCATS]

Haha we are still arguing about the Lopez snub/drafting DJ instead. Just move on. Even if we were wrong their is nothing to do about it. What do you gain by being right about something that was done wrong and cannot be undone?

[Veteran_Picksetter]

You're missing the point. Who cares if you were right about this one? You took an educated guess that happened to work out. I'll bet if you had to write about an NBA column, you wouldn't get all of the educated guesses right. I didn't want DJ either. I would have rather had Lopez. It doesn't matter. It's one isolated instance. We don't keep a record of all of the things Bonnell gets right. We just foam at the mouth and post links to old columns when he gets it wrong.

Great sports writers aren't the ones that predict. Great sports writers are the ones that explain what already has been in an insightful way. That's why most of the credible sports writers are saying "we don't know" about free agency, because they don't! Instead, they're reporting how things COULD happen and what sources are telling them.

Missing the point? I was simply addressing your following paragraph:




What was glaringly obvious about it? Many thought Augustin was the best pg in the draft. Many considered Lopez a stiff big that would be the C equivalent of Adam Morrison, which is why Lopez slid in the weeks preceeding the draft.

You also wrote this:




There are too many variables, and anyone claiming to know for certain what is going to happen is either lying or delusional.

This applies to my issue with Bonnell. Merely halfway through their rookie season, he decided to declare the DJ Augustin pick as the right one. Never mind the fact that BOTH Augustin and Lopez were having solid rookie campaigns. Never mind the fact that big men usually take longer to develop because they haven't faced a lot of other guys as big/bigger than them on the college level.

Bonnell really jumped the gun on that one. He simply shouldn't have declared DJ the right pick that early. That is my issue with him on this. And yes, I'm a bit emotional about it, because that really was the most disappointing NBA draft I've ever watched as a Bobcats fan. I'd actually done my research that year, and I believed in Lopez.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

And despite being 5'11" with a 7'11"ish standing reach and lacking world class athleticism, he still had a heck of a rookie year. The point is that it isn't an exact science. You need look no further than the NFL to see that the combine mentality doesn't always acurately predict who will pan out and who won't. DJ's had one good year and one that was sub-par. IMO, it's still too early to say what kind of player he'll become.

The other point is that reasonable minds can disagree. I thought it was idiotic to trade for Diop, regardless of our concerns about depth at that position. I said so as soon as it happened. It looks like I was right about that one, but the fact that we made that trade and that LB pushed for it doesn't mean LB is an idiot, nor does it mean I'm John Wooden. To dnbman's point, sometimes you get it right and sometimes you don't.

He had a solid rookie year from an offensive standpoint, playing a lot off-the-ball. Perhaps we need to get a 6'5"ish poor man's Tyreke Evans to run point next to him.

But we all know he's one of the biggest defensive liabilities in the league. And that isn't gonna change due to his physical limitations, which are documented in the combine measurements. Mainly, due to his lack of reach and vertical leap, he can't get a hand in any shooter's face.

You just don't use a lottery pick on 5'11" guy who isn't a world class athlete.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

What about Steve Nash or John Stockton? The jury is still out on DJ, lets see what he does next year. I agree he doesn't have the tools to be a top defender, but he can still turn into a great player.


Stockton and Nash:

What about them? Both are at least 2 inches bigger than DJ, enabling them to see over the defense. I daresay they have higher standing reaches. Both have pure PG/floor general skill-sets, which DJ does not.

And why do you assume they are not good athletes? Do you have some combine measurements on them?

My point is, if you are gonna draft a 5'11" guy into the NBA, he had better be an awesome athlete. But a 6'2" guy doesn't necessarily have to be.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

So what are Derrick Brown and Gerald Henderson??? physical limitations? i think not. 1-0....

I was actually pleased with that draft. I think the Bobcats got it right after the 2006 and 2008 debacles. Both Henderson and Brown have immense physical tools.

But it's hard to deny that we've drafted a lot of physically-limited college All-Stars:

Sean May: 8'9" standing reach is simply Small Forward territory.

Adam Morrison: No bulk or vertical explosiveness. Very low weight and slight bone structure for his size. Generally considered one of the worst athletes in the league.

Jared Dudley: Solid, savvy role player, I'll admit, despite limited wingspan, limited standing reach, limited quickness, and limited vertical explosiveness for his position. Can play with a team like the Suns, who have some excellent NBA players.

DJ Augustin: I've already been over his limitations.

That's 4 first rounders in 4 different drafts of our brief history with glaring physical limitations. It's okay to have ONE of these guys in your lineup as long as you are surrounding him with superior length/athleticism. But you don't build a lineup with a bunch of these guys. They are college All-stars, not superior NBA prospects.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

Haha we are still arguing about the Lopez snub/drafting DJ instead. Just move on. Even if we were wrong their is nothing to do about it. What do you gain by being right about something that was done wrong and cannot be undone?

Why don't we take the subject of History out of our public schools while we're at it?

There are lessons to be gained here. The major one is this:

1. Draft for quality rather than immediate positional need. The draft is about building for the future.

Others:

Use a lottery pick on a player with the appropriate length for his position, unless he is simply an "All-World" type of player (See Chris Paul as one of the "All-World" exceptions)

[Veteran_Picksetter]

Adding to my previous post, here is what to look for in a prospect:

1. appropriate Length for one's position.

2. appropriate Size for one's position.

3. appropriate Athleticism for one's position.

4. appropriate Skill-Set for one's position.

If a lottery prospect is deficient in any one of these categories, he had better be vastly superior in the other three.

And by size, I mean the right mix of height, weight, and bulk for one's position. Adam Morrison had the height, but not the weight/bulk, for his SF skill-set. Combine this with his sub-par athleticism, and he was probably never gonna be an elite scorer.

[dnbman]

Why don't we take the subject of History out of our public schools while we're at it?

There are lessons to be gained here. The major one is this:

1. Draft for quality rather than immediate positional need. The draft is about building for the future.

Others:

Use a lottery pick on a player with the appropriate length for his position, unless he is simply an "All-World" type of player (See Chris Paul as one of the "All-World" exceptions)

A couple of other ideas we should learn in school are "main idea" and "relevance." The point of this thread started about Bonnell's coverage of the summer league and turned into a general criticism of his writing. Now we're rehashing the same debates that have happened innumerable times on this board: who we should have picked. While there are lessons to be learned from evaluating those drafts, they're virtually moot now because they have been discussed to death.

Once again, the main point is that predicting success in professional sports isn't much more scientific than rolling dice. There are some predictions that are extremely likely: Lebron is a better pick than Darko. The Colts will probably beat the Lions. However, when anything is questionably, there is no science of certainty, which is the degree that many hold sports writers accountable. Bringing up one example of the sports writer being wrong no more discredits the writer than evaluating his/her March Madness brackets.

Again, too many variables.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

A couple of other ideas we should learn in school are "main idea" and "relevance." The point of this thread started about Bonnell's coverage of the summer league and turned into a general criticism of his writing. Now we're rehashing the same debates that have happened innumerable times on this board: who we should have picked. While there are lessons to be learned from evaluating those drafts, they're virtually moot now because they have been discussed to death.

Once again, the main point is that predicting success in professional sports isn't much more scientific than rolling dice. There are some predictions that are extremely likely: Lebron is a better pick than Darko. The Colts will probably beat the Lions. However, when anything is questionably, there is no science of certainty, which is the degree that many hold sports writers accountable. Bringing up one example of the sports writer being wrong no more discredits the writer than evaluating his/her March Madness brackets.

Again, too many variables.


Just because there is a roll-of-the-dice element to the draft, it doesn't mean we should stop studying and evaluating the criteria for making a draft pick. Through the Bobcats' mistakes, I've personally learned the importance of appropriate length, size, athleticism, and skill-set in making a pick. What's wrong with throwing this idea out there? If the Bobcats begin with that simple 4-part criteria, they don't make the Morrison, May, and Augustin lottery mistakes again. I'm sorry if that's too scientific for some of the people here.

If you read my earlier posts, I gave some "props" to Bonnell. I merely pointed out that he got it wrong with Augustin. I'm not trying to get Bonnell completely discredited. Although I am astonished that after all of his years in the league, he was ready to pronounce DJ the right pick so early on....


If a thread takes on a different path, I don't see the problem. This thread has not turned into something vulgar. It's still talking about Bobcats basketball and general basketball concepts. I honestly don't see the problem. Plus, it's summer and nothing much is happening. Why not re-hash stuff a little bit? Apparently there are some people out there who still don't understand what makes a good prospect. The Bobcats made mistakes and they need to learn from them. We can't keep drafting the way we do. We can't rely solely on veteran contracts for the long haul. We HAVE to draft better. And there's a science to it.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

A couple of other ideas we should learn in school are "main idea" and "relevance." The point of this thread started about Bonnell's coverage of the summer league and turned into a general criticism of his writing. Now we're rehashing the same debates that have happened innumerable times on this board: who we should have picked. While there are lessons to be learned from evaluating those drafts, they're virtually moot now because they have been discussed to death.

Once again, the main point is that predicting success in professional sports isn't much more scientific than rolling dice. There are some predictions that are extremely likely: Lebron is a better pick than Darko. The Colts will probably beat the Lions. However, when anything is questionably, there is no science of certainty, which is the degree that many hold sports writers accountable. Bringing up one example of the sports writer being wrong no more discredits the writer than evaluating his/her March Madness brackets.

Again, too many variables.

And by the way, I started this thread. But it was another poster who started up the criticism of Bonnell. And I am quite okay with that. I'm glad he contributed that to the thread if it's what he sincerely believes.

[dnbman]

And by the way, I started this thread. But it was another poster who started up the criticism of Bonnell. And I am quite okay with that. I'm glad he contributed that to the thread if it's what he sincerely believes.

That's cool. I'm just tired of past draft debates, which have been discussed to death on this board, DJ vs Lopez not withstanding.

[Ghost Kat]

Maybe next game but i'm clearly not impressed with our PG's for SL. Ummm...they don't seem to pass the ball very well.

Nice seeing Super Jamario again. Still has he's Predator locks.....Lorda Mercy Bumba Clot

[GoBobs]

Stockton and Nash:

What about them? Both are at least 2 inches bigger than DJ, enabling them to see over the defense. I daresay they have higher standing reaches. Both have pure PG/floor general skill-sets, which DJ does not.

And why do you assume they are not good athletes? Do you have some combine measurements on them?

My point is, if you are gonna draft a 5'11" guy into the NBA, he had better be an awesome athlete. But a 6'2" guy doesn't necessarily have to be.

Nash is obviously not a superior athlete by nba standards. He doesn't dunk or block shots. Nash is poor on defense but excels due to his craftiness, ability to change speeds and natural feel for the game. None of those things have anything to do with being a great athlete.

The Idea that DJ could never be as good as Nash because he doesn't have the required 2 extra inches he needs to see over the defense is laughable. How does Nate Robinson's athletic ability allow him to compensate for his lack of height when it comes to seeing over the defense? Height and standing reach are important for playing D not great court vision.

As far as having pure pg/floor general skill sets, DJ not having that is debatable. Nash's numbers his first few years in the league are not that different from DJ's. In any case this has nothing to do with size or athleticism. You said he wouldn't succeed because he is 5'11'' and not a good athlete. Now you are say the problem is he isn't a pure pg/floor general. Which is it?

[WAM9]

I was the one who brought up Bonnell but not as much to have a Bonnell debate as to just say that I wasn't ready to have an inteligent conversation about Ajinca or any other players in summer league based solely on a single blog by Bonnell.

If Jerry West is giving his opinion about what he saw, or Hubie Brown, or Larry Brown, I will listen with everything I have but when it is Bonnell, I just take it with a grain of salt, that is all I was saying.

Didn't mean to get this started.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

Nash is obviously not a superior athlete by nba standards. He doesn't dunk or block shots. Nash is poor on defense but excels due to his craftiness, ability to change speeds and natural feel for the game. None of those things have anything to do with being a great athlete.

The Idea that DJ could never be as good as Nash because he doesn't have the required 2 extra inches he needs to see over the defense is laughable. How does Nate Robinson's athletic ability allow him to compensate for his lack of height when it comes to seeing over the defense? Height and standing reach are important for playing D not great court vision.

As far as having pure pg/floor general skill sets, DJ not having that is debatable. Nash's numbers his first few years in the league are not that different from DJ's. In any case this has nothing to do with size or athleticism. You said he wouldn't succeed because he is 5'11'' and not a good athlete. Now you are say the problem is he isn't a pure pg/floor general. Which is it?

The ability to change speeds is an athletic ability. Also, Nash and Stockton are very strong individuals. Stockton had some of the strongest hands in the league. Also, we don't have access to their sprinting numbers. They never striked me as particularly slow individuals in their prime.

Second of all, if a guy is 6'2" or 6'3" with great ballhandling ability, it gives him a great advantage over a 5'11" guy with equal ballhandling ability. And by the way that's a 3" to 4" difference between Nash and DJ--not 2" as you wrote.

With all due respect, have you played a lot of basketball? Height and standing reach help with the following on offense:

Seeing over people.
Passing over people.
Scoring over people, especially around/near the lane.


Nate Robinson's insane athletic ability allows him to rise high for shots and attack the basket as a scoring threat. He is a scoring mentality PG, not a pure distributing PG. Take his athleticism down a notch or so, thus lessening his ability to score, and he's no longer effective in the NBA.

It's possible that DJ could improve somewhat as a distributor. But you'd like to see a 5'11" guy who has likely already played a lot of PG in his life enter the league as a pure distributing PG. But at the same time, he has his physical limitations that should be a red-flag for a lottery-level pick. It doesn't have to be one or the other as you imply. The skill set AND the physicality are both concerns.

Really, he needs to be on a team that runs nonstop. He does have straight ahead speed. His lack of verticality and physical presence hinder him somewhat as a creator in the halfcourt offense. He'd be more effective gunslinging for Mike A'antoni or Don Nelson.

[CatNation]

You guys need to look up Mahmoud Abdul Rauf. Just like DJ (though he had a higher vertical which doesnt mean much cause he never really used it). I dont see any reason DJ couldnt become a player like him and be really successul. elite shooter and good passer

R-w3vbrj7KQ

[Veteran_Picksetter]

That's cool. I'm just tired of past draft debates, which have been discussed to death on this board, DJ vs Lopez not withstanding.

It's a traumatic draft night experience that I'm still trying to work through, man. I can't get past it. I just need everyone's love and understanding. :)!

Maybe if Ajinca suddenly makes strides and DJ gets back to his rookie production, it will heal the pain.

By the way, we used to team up on the great Felton debates with W_Hamilton over on the Observer's forum back in the day--unless there are 2 dnbmans. I was under a different username over there.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

You guys need to look up Mahmoud Abdul Rauf. Just like DJ (though he had a higher vertical which doesnt mean much cause he never really used it). I dont see any reason DJ couldnt become a player like him and be really successul. elite shooter and good passer

R-w3vbrj7KQ

That's a hopeful comparison and thanks for the research.

But honestly if you play this game, you use whatever verticality you have in subtle ways, whether it's finishing a little higher in the lane, jumping up to prevent a good pass from being attempted, or skying to keep a loose ball alive for your team....

But maybe DJ can take heart in Mahmoud's production. He produced a lot in Denver. Weren't they playing a run-and-gun style back then? I might be wrong. They were definitely doing that during a lot of seasons.

Like I mentioned in an other post, I think DJ will do best on a run-and-gun team. It's puzzling that LB lobbied for him when LB values defense and a pass-first skill-set from his PG, not to mention tall, long PG's.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

I also see that Abdul-Rauf (sp?) was listed at 6'1". Hard to say how he really measured up to DJ. But he excelled in an era when tall PG's and Hall-of-Fame caliber 7-footers were the norm, where a Dwight Howard or Emeka Okafor would have been a straight up PF, unlike today's "smaller" version of basketball. So the comparison could still be fair.

[CatNation]

I also see that Abdul-Rauf (sp?) was listed at 6'1". Hard to say how he really measured up to DJ. But he excelled in an era when tall PG's and Hall-of-Fame caliber 7-footers were the norm, where a Dwight Howard or Emeka Okafor would have been a straight up PF, unlike today's "smaller" version of basketball. So the comparison could still be fair.

Well I think DJ would be a lot better off if we just said, "Hey, go out there and shoot. If you're not open, give it to Stephen or Boris. If they give it back to you, shoot." But he's still young and has aspirations of being a team-running point guard and you can't really take that away from him. If he just doesn't have the ability it'll probably work itself out eventually or he'll be out of the league.

[dnbman]

ay, we used to team up on the great Felton debates with W_Hamilton over on the Observer's forum back in the day--unless there are 2 dnbmans. I was under a different username over there.

I understand the pain. I've never been a DJ supporter, especially since he seemed to epitomize the things that people used to criticize Felton for. However, it's not worth it to me to keep revisiting these ideas. Ultimately, you hope your organization makes the best decision they can with all of the information they have, which can go beyond basic evaluations of a player.

At this point, I just don't see any other option other than to give DJ a shot and see what happens.

What was your handle back then?

[spectre]

Well I think DJ would be a lot better off if we just said, "Hey, go out there and shoot. If you're not open, give it to Stephen or Boris. If they give it back to you, shoot." But he's still young and has aspirations of being a team-running point guard and you can't really take that away from him. If he just doesn't have the ability it'll probably work itself out eventually or he'll be out of the league.

Y'all think Larry Brown is that flexible?

My thing with letting DJ start was that it'd really be difficult to do so long as LB is here. LB WILL chew his starting PGs arse out occasionally (probably being conservative with that) and said PG will have to have the fortitude to deal with it. Up til now DJ has not been able to.

If LB wasn't coming back and due to the limited options I think it'd be a viable alternative to let him determine if he can handle it. As it is though I think that if we're put into the position where DJ is the best PG on the roster odds are LB will break him.

Who knows though...maybe the 3rd year being around LB is the charm.

[CatNation]

Y'all think Larry Brown is that flexible?


Probably not because Larry is hell bent on playing the "right way." Obviously Larry has more bball knowledge in his asshairs than I have in my whole body but sometimes you gotta just realize that if a guy has limited talents you gotta just let him go out there and do what he's good at. Better to excel in one thing than be mediocre at everything. Not everyone has to be a complete player. He did the same thing with Theo Ratliff last year telling him to get involved in the offense and he started shooting those 12 footers. All you wanna do is :facepalm:. If DJ can't run an offense, fine, but he CAN shoot like a mofo so let him go out there and stretch the offense, do some catch-and-shoot and get some swagger goin

[Proudiddy]

In all honesty, I think DJ needs more minutes to maximize his potential anyway. With Flip and Larry Hughes around last year, they filled in for Ray a lot more than anyone else did at PG in DJ's rookie year.

There is a direct correlation between DJ's reduced role/minutes and his drop in productivity. If you played bball before, some guys are better than others at coming in a game and making an immediate impact (offensively OR defensively), while some guys have to get in the game, pick up on the flow of it and then make an impact but it takes a few minutes to spark them. DJ is the latter...

He lost about 8 minutes a game from his rookie year to his soph. year. Everything dropped form there. And to me, having experience as a PG (regardless of level), DJ strikes me as a guy that feeds off his scoring ability. Once he drops a bucket, he could hit the next 10 in a row... And on top of that, his confidence grows once he scores, the defense has to pay attention, and both of those factors combined open up opportunities for passes/assists. But, he's gotta score and be in the game to have an impact.

Also, if you remember from his rookie year, DJ has always been a standup guy. So him taking responsibility for last year's shortcomings doesn't surprise me, even though I believe he feels it wasn't completely on him. Confidence makes a huge difference in basketball. My best friend played professionally and always told me bball is "10% physical and 90% mental." I've heard it other places as well, and it holds true much more than people realize.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

In all honesty, I think DJ needs more minutes to maximize his potential anyway. With Flip and Larry Hughes around last year, they filled in for Ray a lot more than anyone else did at PG in DJ's rookie year.

There is a direct correlation between DJ's reduced role/minutes and his drop in productivity. If you played bball before, some guys are better than others at coming in a game and making an immediate impact (offensively OR defensively), while some guys have to get in the game, pick up on the flow of it and then make an impact but it takes a few minutes to spark them. DJ is the latter...

He lost about 8 minutes a game from his rookie year to his soph. year. Everything dropped form there. And to me, having experience as a PG (regardless of level), DJ strikes me as a guy that feeds off his scoring ability. Once he drops a bucket, he could hit the next 10 in a row... And on top of that, his confidence grows once he scores, the defense has to pay attention, and both of those factors combined open up opportunities for passes/assists. But, he's gotta score and be in the game to have an impact.

Also, if you remember from his rookie year, DJ has always been a standup guy. So him taking responsibility for last year's shortcomings doesn't surprise me, even though I believe he feels it wasn't completely on him. Confidence makes a huge difference in basketball. My best friend played professionally and always told me bball is "10% physical and 90% mental." I've heard it other places as well, and it holds true much more than people realize.

Quality post. I enjoyed reading this.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

Probably not because Larry is hell bent on playing the "right way." Obviously Larry has more bball knowledge in his asshairs than I have in my whole body but sometimes you gotta just realize that if a guy has limited talents you gotta just let him go out there and do what he's good at. Better to excel in one thing than be mediocre at everything. Not everyone has to be a complete player. He did the same thing with Theo Ratliff last year telling him to get involved in the offense and he started shooting those 12 footers. All you wanna do is :facepalm:. If DJ can't run an offense, fine, but he CAN shoot like a mofo so let him go out there and stretch the offense, do some catch-and-shoot and get some swagger goin

Well put. I say get a running game going and give DJ some leeway to be an aggressive shooter. That's how to use him. Running a halfcourt offense? That's not DJ's strongest area, in my humble opinion. He needs to learn how to do it, but at the same time Coach ought to meet his personnel halfway and fashion a strategy that suits their strengths.

I say run-and-gun every chance you get with DJ in the lineup, and then let Boris/Jack handle it more in the halfcourt sets.