Espn Lotto and draft simulator

[superb1]

The simulator is up on ESPN and I spinned it a few times. I was not a given all the time that we had the 1st pick. don't remember the total times (I think about 20) I used it but we got the top pick about 5 times. depressing if it was the real thing. But we picked Anthony Davis with it. once with the third, we got Andre Drummond. Harrison Barnes and Thomas Robinson the rest.

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2012/mockdraft

[murphman]

Just did it five times and we got the first pick with 3 of those. 4th pick with the other 2.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

I would be VERY content with Barnes, Davis, or Drummond.

[Keetch]

I think having the worst record means we get 25% of the ping pong balls; i.e. 25% of getting Davis.

2nd worst has a 20% chance.

Our most likely scenario is the 4th pick at 36%. We could do no worse than 4th. 2nd worst can do no worse than 5th, though picking 4th is most likely for that spot as well.

Everybody picks 4th!

[BlockParty]

I guess it depends on how you look at it, and your numbers are all true, but if we have a 36% chance of picking 4th, and with the worst record, 4th is the worst pick we would have, we have a 64% chance of getting one of the top 3 picks.

Depending on how the top prospects pan out, if any of those prospects go on a roll during March Madness...I could see Cho taking the #2 or #3 pick and turning it into 2 picks a spot or two down the draft board..say making #2 turn into #4 and #5 depending on the pieces (and we definitely need the plural sense of pieces).

[Veteran_Picksetter]

I guess it depends on how you look at it, and your numbers are all true, but if we have a 36% chance of picking 4th, and with the worst record, 4th is the worst pick we would have, we have a 64% chance of getting one of the top 3 picks.

Depending on how the top prospects pan out, if any of those prospects go on a roll during March Madness...I could see Cho taking the #2 or #3 pick and turning it into 2 picks a spot or two down the draft board..say making #2 turn into #4 and #5 depending on the pieces (and we definitely need the plural sense of pieces).

But AT THIS POINT, do you feel that the top 2-3 prospects are clearly head and shoulders above the rest?? Like you say, that could easily change.

You raise an interesting question. Is this a good draft to trade down in, or is it not? When Seattle(OKC) had a chance at Durant, I'm sure trading down to fill 2 roster spots looked like a terrible idea....

[Keetch]

As good as this draft is espoused to be; I only see Davis as a good bet to become an elite NBA player. So I don't think we should trade out of #1 if we get it. Frankly, it would really piss me off if Cho did that.

Otherwise, if we dont get the first maybe trading down could be a good move. I'm still waiting for one of the rest of the players to rise up, but so far only TRobb is playing above expectations.

Barnes, Lamb, Sullinger and Drummond have all been pretty far below expectations it seems. Move down and take MKG and Henson. Id be thrilled.

[spectre]

Depending on how the top prospects pan out, if any of those prospects go on a roll during March Madness...I could see Cho taking the #2 or #3 pick and turning it into 2 picks a spot or two down the draft board..say making #2 turn into #4 and #5 depending on the pieces (and we definitely need the plural sense of pieces).

Boy would that move be questioned after our 2005 draft. I know it's something of a crap shoot (and I supported Bernie's decision) but that non move sure bit us in the ass.

[Mustachio]

I would be VERY content with Barnes, Davis, or Drummond.


Exactly. I will take any one of those guys. 3 best prospects and they all fit a need. After this horrible season, if we end up with 4th and Kidd-Gilchrist... Suicide might be an option.

[BlockParty]

But AT THIS POINT, do you feel that the top 2-3 prospects are clearly head and shoulders above the rest?? Like you say, that could easily change.
..

At this point..I don't think there is much difference between 2-7...so if it means getting #3 & #5 instead of #2....I look at it more of we have twice the opportunity to have one of the players turn into an all-star. Davis, at this point is #1 and would've warrant moving the pick under any circumstances.

[BlockParty]

Boy would that move be questioned after our 2005 draft. I know it's something of a crap shoot (and I supported Bernie's decision) but that non move sure bit us in the ass.

I didn't support his decision at the time, I thought CP3 was better than Felton and May was just overweight enough as a college player that he'd struggle in the pro game (though they never asked my opinion). I did like Bernie as a GM though, for a expansion team. This is a different scenario though, this taking a high lottery pick and turning it into 2 lottery picks...similar to taking #3 Adam Morrison's slot and turning him into #8 Rudy Gay and #6 Brandon Roy (minus all the health issues). Cho can do it.

[SWedd523]

I hope I'm not the only one who doesn't consider Barnes to be one of the three best prospects.

[Veteran_Picksetter]

I hope I'm not the only one who doesn't consider Barnes to be one of the three best prospects.

Perhaps UNC bias permeates Bobcat land.

Do you have a personal top 5?

[SWedd523]

I kind of update my big board on a week to week basis. Similar to what the draft sites do, but of course I don't have any clout


As of Monday, My personal top-ish list by tiers:


1. Anthony Davis
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2. Andre Drummond
3. Jeremy Lamb
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4. Perry Jones
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5. Jared Sullinger
6. Harrison Barnes
7. Michael Gilchrist
8. Quincy Miller
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9. Brad Beal
10. Thomas Robinson
11. John Henson
12. Terrence Jones