Comparing Our Likely #2 Picks to "The Number One"

[Whiz Kid]

I am one to believe that numbers don't lie. You can talk about a guy's heart, work ethic, and motor, which does matter, but show me the production.

So I decided to statistically compare our likely picks at #2 to the sure #1 pick.


http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=bradley-beal&p1=3-anthony-davis&p2=thomas-robinson&p3=harrison-barnes&p4=michael-kidd-gilchrist&p5=andre-drummond

Going by stats, I agree with T-Rob himself; hes the #1 Pick.

Tell me what you guys think based on these numbers...

[dnbman]

Davis is still the one. He was crazy efficient with the exception of three point percentage. He could have done a lot more of everything if he was the single focus on his team and not one of five future NBA players. He was also a freshman.

That being said, Thomas deserves praise for his production.

And the stats t-shirt is the first thing that rubbed me the wrong way about Davis.

[Whiz Kid]

Davis is still the one. He was crazy efficient with the exception of three point percentage. He could have done a lot more of everything if he was the single focus on his team and not one of five future NBA players. He was also a freshman.

That being said, Thomas deserves praise for his production.

And the stats t-shirt is the first thing that rubbed me the wrong way about Davis.

I can't disagree with the efficiency. However, I'd still take Robinson because he may not have been AS efficient as Davis but he was still efficient. Only place these stats don't do him justice in is defensively. But only judging this one thing not using stats, he still played good defense and force bad shots a lot of the time.

[Mustachio]

I am one to believe that numbers don't lie. You can talk about a guy's heart, work ethic, and motor, which does matter, but show me the production.

So I decided to statistically compare our likely picks at #2 to the sure #1 pick.


http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=bradley-beal&p1=3-anthony-davis&p2=thomas-robinson&p3=harrison-barnes&p4=michael-kidd-gilchrist&p5=andre-drummond

Going by stats, I agree with T-Rob himself; hes the #1 Pick.

Tell me what you guys think based on these numbers...


Impressive work! Great way to compare and contrast, I love it. While I agree with DNBman that Davis is still the one... I think its time we stopped looking at Thomas Robinson as a consolation prize for sure. I am the first one to drop some stats on ya to prove a point as I agree that numbers never lie. Robinson produced last year maybe better than anyone in this draft and will be a good NBA player. But Davis is a different beast. You have to consider a couple things, 1. that Davis is 2 years younger so he has "potential" on his side. and 2. defensively Davis was better than anyone we've seen in the last 15 years. He averaged 4.6 blocks a game in the SEC. Thats unbelievable and one of the few true stats to translate to the next level. those two factors keep him firmly at number 1.

And the Davis/Robinson "question" is one example of stats not showing the true nature of each player. What I mean is, while watching Davis play... you could physically notice that he affected every single play. He had other players shook. Scared to go up for put backs, double and triple pumping in the lane, passing out, just generally scared to go up against him because he was such a freak of nature. On offense despite not having much of a game outside the backboard, you constantly had to be aware of him lurking for the alley oop, or him starting the pick and roll. I mean every facet, even when he was on the bench dudes would think twice about taking it to the basket. thats hard to find.

but still, considering all that, when the two went head to head, Thomas Robinson wasn't scared of Davis. And outproduced him. The last time we drafted a player that wasn't scared of Davis and outproduced him in head to head matchup was Biz, and I think we are all super happy about that pick.

[Whiz Kid]

Impressive work! Great way to compare and contrast, I love it. While I agree with DNBman that Davis is still the one... I think its time we stopped looking at Thomas Robinson as a consolation prize for sure. I am the first one to drop some stats on ya to prove a point as I agree that numbers never lie. Robinson produced last year maybe better than anyone in this draft and will be a good NBA player. But Davis is a different beast. You have to consider a couple things, 1. that Davis is 2 years younger so he has "potential" on his side. and 2. defensively Davis was better than anyone we've seen in the last 15 years. He averaged 4.6 blocks a game in the SEC. Thats unbelievable and one of the few true stats to translate to the next level. those two factors keep him firmly at number 1.

And the Davis/Robinson "question" is one example of stats not showing the true nature of each player. What I mean is, while watching Davis play... you could physically notice that he affected every single play. He had other players shook. Scared to go up for put backs, double and triple pumping in the lane, passing out, just generally scared to go up against him because he was such a freak of nature. On offense despite not having much of a game outside the backboard, you constantly had to be aware of him lurking for the alley oop, or him starting the pick and roll. I mean every facet, even when he was on the bench dudes would think twice about taking it to the basket. thats hard to find.

but still, considering all that, when the two went head to head, Thomas Robinson wasn't scared of Davis. And outproduced him. The last time we drafted a player that wasn't scared of Davis and outproduced him in head to head matchup was Biz, and I think we are all super happy about that pick.

In the end, I probably would give the number 1 pick to Davis but since we lost out on number 1 a lot of people are skeptical about what we should do and who we should draft. I was on the Barnes/MKG train but I'm slowly realizing this is our guy. Going away from statistics for a quick statement, we really don't NEED to have a statistically excellent shot blocker because we have Biz. T-Rob still plays hard defense and forces the opponent to really work to score on him. He may not average 2-3 bpg but hes gonna make whoever hes guarding work for every bucket

If we draft him and utilize him to the fullest, I can see his rookie season stats being close to identical to his college stats. My personal predictions are:
-16.8ppg
-12.1rpg
-.9bpg
-1.3spg
-1.8topg

I think that will be a pretty good rookie season and he can only get better.

[adam187]

In the end, I probably would give the number 1 pick to Davis but since we lost out on number 1 a lot of people are skeptical about what we should do and who we should draft. I was on the Barnes/MKG train but I'm slowly realizing this is our guy. Going away from statistics for a quick statement, we really don't NEED to have a statistically excellent shot blocker because we have Biz. T-Rob still plays hard defense and forces the opponent to really work to score on him. He may not average 2-3 bpg but hes gonna make whoever hes guarding work for every bucket

If we draft him and utilize him to the fullest, I can see his rookie season stats being close to identical to his college stats. My personal predictions are:
-16.8ppg
-12.1rpg
-.9bpg
-1.3spg
-1.8topg

I think that will be a pretty good rookie season and he can only get better.

that would be an insane rookie season for this team. for context, pretty sure our highest scorer this season was at 15 points a game and our best rebounder was at 6.

[Mustachio]

I think that will be a pretty good rookie season and he can only get better.

As a Charlotte Bobcats fan... I know this is patently false.


But yeah I agree. I could easily see a situation where NO gets Davis, we draft Robinson. and Robinson wins Rookie of the Year. Thats what happened in 04 after all. Freak standout goes number 1, we get the sure double double guy, Okafor wins ROY... Dwight Howard goes on to win...nothing. So hey maybe that 04 draft worked out better than we thought it did.

[Whiz Kid]

As a Charlotte Bobcats fan... I know this is patently false.


But yeah I agree. I could easily see a situation where NO gets Davis, we draft Robinson. and Robinson wins Rookie of the Year. Thats what happened in 04 after all. Freak standout goes number 1, we get the sure double double guy, Okafor wins ROY... Dwight Howard goes on to win...nothing. So hey maybe that 04 draft worked out better than we thought it did.

I can see that happening.

[Toocool]

Whoa whoa whoa.
16.8/12???
No way son.
Absolutely no way.

1. Robinson lacks a full post-game. Yes he can score in the paint, but not efficiently nor does he have all the moves. His jumper is also very inconsistent.
2. Tim Duncan averaged 21/12 in his rookie year, playing almost 40 minutes. T. Rob is not even close to how polished Duncan is, and I dont expect him to get 40 mins a game.
3. He's gotta compete with Smack+Mullens for rebounds. Mullens showed improving rebounding ability and toughness as the season went on. Smack will be a force on the boards in my opinion. 12 rebounds is out of the equation.

[Whiz Kid]

Whoa whoa whoa.
16.8/12???
No way son.
Absolutely no way.

1. Robinson lacks a full post-game. Yes he can score in the paint, but not efficiently nor does he have all the moves. His jumper is also very inconsistent.
2. Tim Duncan averaged 21/12 in his rookie year, playing almost 40 minutes. T. Rob is not even close to how polished Duncan is, and I dont expect him to get 40 mins a game.
3. He's gotta compete with Smack+Mullens for rebounds. Mullens showed improving rebounding ability and toughness as the season went on. Smack will be a force on the boards in my opinion. 12 rebounds is out of the equation.

That's why I said IF we utilize him fully, meaning playing time, good coaching, development, etc. That's what I was factoring in.

[spectre]

3. He's gotta compete with Smack+Mullens for rebounds. Mullens showed improving rebounding ability and toughness as the season went on. Smack will be a force on the boards in my opinion. 12 rebounds is out of the equation.

Agreed with most of your post but I wanted to touch on this point. In the limited amount I've seen of Robinson the kid REALLY knows how to get into position and block out. He might not average double digit boards but I'll wager our rebound total goes up by a lot.

I also see the possibility of Robinson being the main rebounder and allow Smack to roam and help if you know what I mean. Last year we had no help for the helper...I think Robinson's smarts would go a long way to solving some of that.

[Whiz Kid]

Agreed with most of your post but I wanted to touch on this point. In the limited amount I've seen of Robinson the kid REALLY knows how to get into position and block out. He might not average double digit boards but I'll wager our rebound total goes up by a lot.

I also see the possibility of Robinson being the main rebounder and allow Smack to roam and help if you know what I mean. Last year we had no help for the helper...I think Robinson's smarts would go a long way to solving some of that.

That's what I'm saying. If he happens to not average in double digits we will be our rebounding leader in the 8-9 range

[Veteran_Picksetter]

Whoa whoa whoa.
16.8/12???
No way son.
Absolutely no way.

1. Robinson lacks a full post-game. Yes he can score in the paint, but not efficiently nor does he have all the moves. His jumper is also very inconsistent.
2. Tim Duncan averaged 21/12 in his rookie year, playing almost 40 minutes. T. Rob is not even close to how polished Duncan is, and I dont expect him to get 40 mins a game.
3. He's gotta compete with Smack+Mullens for rebounds. Mullens showed improving rebounding ability and toughness as the season went on. Smack will be a force on the boards in my opinion. 12 rebounds is out of the equation.

I love what you said on number 1.

But number 3? The Bobcats are a HORRIBLE rebounding team. Mullens is not gonna be grabbing a ton of boards anytime soon. There will be plenty of opportunities for Robinson to board with us, if we get him. If he averages 30 minutes a night with the Bobcats, he will get AT LEAST 10 boards a game--minimum.

[Whiz Kid]

He's definitely CAPABLE of achieving 16-12. The only factor is how he's used.