tamburello
03-18-2007, 05:50 AM
Michael Jordan stated the other day the Charlotte Bobcats want to keep valuable forward Gerald Wallace, something that really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who follows the Cats and knows how much the young player brings to the team. Wallace can be a free agent this season if he chooses to opt out of his contract, one that pays him $5.5 million this season and moderately more next.
However, that amount of money is lower than market value for Wallace's production, so him opting out of his deal this summer to sign a new long-term contract should be treated as a foregone conclusion; no agent would allow a client in Wallace's position NOT to opt out and test the free agent waters with his skills and being only 24 years old.
"When you look at our nucleus, they are all 25 years and younger," said Jordan in a press conference. "We've got some decisions to make in the summer, such as tying up (Emeka) Okafor long term, if (Gerald) Wallace opts out we have to do something with him, and Matt Carroll is a component we feel makes a very good impact on the franchise. There's also Primoz Brezec. We've got a lot of things we need to secure in terms of the nucleus, which in essence gives the fans an understanding that we are close. We want to sustain this long term, and I think that we have to make that commitment financially to show them that we are willing to do that. When the time comes, we will spend, with the right people we feel are going to benefit this organization. Whatever free agent we feel that we can go out and get that we feel will get us over the hump, we will make sure that it's a solidified situation so that we give ourselves some time to succeed over a period of time, not one year or two years. That's our plan."
Not a bad plan - but all plans need more parameters, such as a budget. How to establish the value of a 24-year-old star whose future is nothing but bright? Let's take a look at Wallace's current statistics, his efficiency rating, and see what other players with his types of skills and experience are making. His 2006-07 stats:
17.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.8 blocks, 49% shooting, 31% three-point shooting, and 69% free throw shooting, 18.1 player efficiency rating
Wallace also, if he plays in all of the Bobcats remaining games, will play the most games of his career (his injury issues are well-documented). But what types of players can Wallace be compared to for the Bobcats to ascertain his market value?
Wallace can't be measured just by numbers, because his defense is top-notch. He can score, he rebounds, and his shooting has improved each of his season's in the league. To compare a player to Wallace they have to be considered a two-way player, very good on offense and defense.
The closest players to Wallace in scoring at the small forward position are Luol Deng, Mike Miller, Shawn Marion, and Al Harrington. When it comes to rebounds, the closest players are Deng, Josh Howard, Rashard Lewis, LeBron James, and Harrington. In steals the closest players are Andre Iguodala, Marion, James, and Josh Smith. In blocks the players are Howard and Rudy Gay - not many small forwards average blocks that high.
When it comes down to player efficiency the closest small forwards to Wallace are Deng, Smith, Howard, and Miller.
Looking at that list of players it's fairly evident Wallace is in good company. For this purpose we need to discard Deng and Smith because despite their outstanding talents they are still on their rookie contracts; their teams will use the contract Wallace signs to help establish their value. So what players showed up most often? That would be Marion, Howard, and Miller. Of that group Miller is by far the worst defender, while Marion and Howard are good defenders - like Wallace.
So how much do Howard and Marion make?
Marion is pulling down a tad over $15 million this season. Howard is making only $1.7 million, but last summer inked a four-year, $40 million extension. Howard has followed up that signing with his first All-Star season in 2006-07; Marion has been an All-Star multiple times. No, Wallace hasn't been an All-Star yet but given the fact his numbers are right there with Howard and Marion it's pretty clear the lack of success of the Bobcats has something to do with that. Well, that and the injury problems.
If Marion and Howard are the best players to compare Wallace too - and the numbers say they are - the value of the Bobcats seems to be somewhere around $10 million per to start. That's more than anyone can offer him, but it basically means a maximum contract is something Wallace will be looking for.
Consider the Cats also have to pay Emeka Okafor this season - another surefire maximum contract - and they might be spending their surplus of cash fairly quick on just their own players. What Jordan needs to really think about is if they are willing to spend maximum contract money on Wallace.
That's where the market is going to be set - and there will be some teams looking for a swingman who can score and defend that can make a maximum offer (though less than Charlotte can).
Either way, Gerald Wallace is going to make himself a very rich young man.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_21279.shtml (by Jason Fleming)
We've been talking about 7-8 per year contracts but in this article dude says we need to start from 10 millions. Is it realistic, or inflated? What's possible market value for Crash?
However, that amount of money is lower than market value for Wallace's production, so him opting out of his deal this summer to sign a new long-term contract should be treated as a foregone conclusion; no agent would allow a client in Wallace's position NOT to opt out and test the free agent waters with his skills and being only 24 years old.
"When you look at our nucleus, they are all 25 years and younger," said Jordan in a press conference. "We've got some decisions to make in the summer, such as tying up (Emeka) Okafor long term, if (Gerald) Wallace opts out we have to do something with him, and Matt Carroll is a component we feel makes a very good impact on the franchise. There's also Primoz Brezec. We've got a lot of things we need to secure in terms of the nucleus, which in essence gives the fans an understanding that we are close. We want to sustain this long term, and I think that we have to make that commitment financially to show them that we are willing to do that. When the time comes, we will spend, with the right people we feel are going to benefit this organization. Whatever free agent we feel that we can go out and get that we feel will get us over the hump, we will make sure that it's a solidified situation so that we give ourselves some time to succeed over a period of time, not one year or two years. That's our plan."
Not a bad plan - but all plans need more parameters, such as a budget. How to establish the value of a 24-year-old star whose future is nothing but bright? Let's take a look at Wallace's current statistics, his efficiency rating, and see what other players with his types of skills and experience are making. His 2006-07 stats:
17.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.8 blocks, 49% shooting, 31% three-point shooting, and 69% free throw shooting, 18.1 player efficiency rating
Wallace also, if he plays in all of the Bobcats remaining games, will play the most games of his career (his injury issues are well-documented). But what types of players can Wallace be compared to for the Bobcats to ascertain his market value?
Wallace can't be measured just by numbers, because his defense is top-notch. He can score, he rebounds, and his shooting has improved each of his season's in the league. To compare a player to Wallace they have to be considered a two-way player, very good on offense and defense.
The closest players to Wallace in scoring at the small forward position are Luol Deng, Mike Miller, Shawn Marion, and Al Harrington. When it comes to rebounds, the closest players are Deng, Josh Howard, Rashard Lewis, LeBron James, and Harrington. In steals the closest players are Andre Iguodala, Marion, James, and Josh Smith. In blocks the players are Howard and Rudy Gay - not many small forwards average blocks that high.
When it comes down to player efficiency the closest small forwards to Wallace are Deng, Smith, Howard, and Miller.
Looking at that list of players it's fairly evident Wallace is in good company. For this purpose we need to discard Deng and Smith because despite their outstanding talents they are still on their rookie contracts; their teams will use the contract Wallace signs to help establish their value. So what players showed up most often? That would be Marion, Howard, and Miller. Of that group Miller is by far the worst defender, while Marion and Howard are good defenders - like Wallace.
So how much do Howard and Marion make?
Marion is pulling down a tad over $15 million this season. Howard is making only $1.7 million, but last summer inked a four-year, $40 million extension. Howard has followed up that signing with his first All-Star season in 2006-07; Marion has been an All-Star multiple times. No, Wallace hasn't been an All-Star yet but given the fact his numbers are right there with Howard and Marion it's pretty clear the lack of success of the Bobcats has something to do with that. Well, that and the injury problems.
If Marion and Howard are the best players to compare Wallace too - and the numbers say they are - the value of the Bobcats seems to be somewhere around $10 million per to start. That's more than anyone can offer him, but it basically means a maximum contract is something Wallace will be looking for.
Consider the Cats also have to pay Emeka Okafor this season - another surefire maximum contract - and they might be spending their surplus of cash fairly quick on just their own players. What Jordan needs to really think about is if they are willing to spend maximum contract money on Wallace.
That's where the market is going to be set - and there will be some teams looking for a swingman who can score and defend that can make a maximum offer (though less than Charlotte can).
Either way, Gerald Wallace is going to make himself a very rich young man.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_21279.shtml (by Jason Fleming)
We've been talking about 7-8 per year contracts but in this article dude says we need to start from 10 millions. Is it realistic, or inflated? What's possible market value for Crash?