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tamburello
03-18-2007, 05:50 AM
Michael Jordan stated the other day the Charlotte Bobcats want to keep valuable forward Gerald Wallace, something that really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who follows the Cats and knows how much the young player brings to the team. Wallace can be a free agent this season if he chooses to opt out of his contract, one that pays him $5.5 million this season and moderately more next.

However, that amount of money is lower than market value for Wallace's production, so him opting out of his deal this summer to sign a new long-term contract should be treated as a foregone conclusion; no agent would allow a client in Wallace's position NOT to opt out and test the free agent waters with his skills and being only 24 years old.

"When you look at our nucleus, they are all 25 years and younger," said Jordan in a press conference. "We've got some decisions to make in the summer, such as tying up (Emeka) Okafor long term, if (Gerald) Wallace opts out we have to do something with him, and Matt Carroll is a component we feel makes a very good impact on the franchise. There's also Primoz Brezec. We've got a lot of things we need to secure in terms of the nucleus, which in essence gives the fans an understanding that we are close. We want to sustain this long term, and I think that we have to make that commitment financially to show them that we are willing to do that. When the time comes, we will spend, with the right people we feel are going to benefit this organization. Whatever free agent we feel that we can go out and get that we feel will get us over the hump, we will make sure that it's a solidified situation so that we give ourselves some time to succeed over a period of time, not one year or two years. That's our plan."

Not a bad plan - but all plans need more parameters, such as a budget. How to establish the value of a 24-year-old star whose future is nothing but bright? Let's take a look at Wallace's current statistics, his efficiency rating, and see what other players with his types of skills and experience are making. His 2006-07 stats:

17.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.8 blocks, 49% shooting, 31% three-point shooting, and 69% free throw shooting, 18.1 player efficiency rating

Wallace also, if he plays in all of the Bobcats remaining games, will play the most games of his career (his injury issues are well-documented). But what types of players can Wallace be compared to for the Bobcats to ascertain his market value?

Wallace can't be measured just by numbers, because his defense is top-notch. He can score, he rebounds, and his shooting has improved each of his season's in the league. To compare a player to Wallace they have to be considered a two-way player, very good on offense and defense.

The closest players to Wallace in scoring at the small forward position are Luol Deng, Mike Miller, Shawn Marion, and Al Harrington. When it comes to rebounds, the closest players are Deng, Josh Howard, Rashard Lewis, LeBron James, and Harrington. In steals the closest players are Andre Iguodala, Marion, James, and Josh Smith. In blocks the players are Howard and Rudy Gay - not many small forwards average blocks that high.

When it comes down to player efficiency the closest small forwards to Wallace are Deng, Smith, Howard, and Miller.

Looking at that list of players it's fairly evident Wallace is in good company. For this purpose we need to discard Deng and Smith because despite their outstanding talents they are still on their rookie contracts; their teams will use the contract Wallace signs to help establish their value. So what players showed up most often? That would be Marion, Howard, and Miller. Of that group Miller is by far the worst defender, while Marion and Howard are good defenders - like Wallace.

So how much do Howard and Marion make?

Marion is pulling down a tad over $15 million this season. Howard is making only $1.7 million, but last summer inked a four-year, $40 million extension. Howard has followed up that signing with his first All-Star season in 2006-07; Marion has been an All-Star multiple times. No, Wallace hasn't been an All-Star yet but given the fact his numbers are right there with Howard and Marion it's pretty clear the lack of success of the Bobcats has something to do with that. Well, that and the injury problems.

If Marion and Howard are the best players to compare Wallace too - and the numbers say they are - the value of the Bobcats seems to be somewhere around $10 million per to start. That's more than anyone can offer him, but it basically means a maximum contract is something Wallace will be looking for.

Consider the Cats also have to pay Emeka Okafor this season - another surefire maximum contract - and they might be spending their surplus of cash fairly quick on just their own players. What Jordan needs to really think about is if they are willing to spend maximum contract money on Wallace.

That's where the market is going to be set - and there will be some teams looking for a swingman who can score and defend that can make a maximum offer (though less than Charlotte can).

Either way, Gerald Wallace is going to make himself a very rich young man.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_21279.shtml (by Jason Fleming)

We've been talking about 7-8 per year contracts but in this article dude says we need to start from 10 millions. Is it realistic, or inflated? What's possible market value for Crash?

ziggy
03-18-2007, 07:25 AM
I have a bad feeling that this summer the Bobcats are not going to pay Gerald what it takes to keep him.
If that happens then the best case scenario would be a sign and trade.

Tamburello, what effect would having to sign Gerald to a $10 million a year deal and Emeka to a Max deal have on our cap space?

tamburello
03-18-2007, 08:43 AM
I have a bad feeling that this summer the Bobcats are not going to pay Gerald what it takes to keep him.
If that happens then the best case scenario would be a sign and trade.

Tamburello, what effect would having to sign Gerald to a $10 million a year deal and Emeka to a Max deal have on our cap space?

According to http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/06-07salaries.htm

We have 7 guaranteed contracts(Knight, Okafor, Morrison, Felton, Harrington, Voskuhl, May) for 2007-08 season, which totals around $ 23.076.000.

I'm also assuming that before moratorium ends;

-Wallace opts out of his contract(6.050.000), he'll count 9.075.000 against the cap before someone signs him.

-Brezec opts out of his contract(2.500.000), if we won't renounce him, he'll count 5.000.000 against the cap before someone signs him.

-After some strong display, I believe we'll pick up the team option for Walter Herrmann, which values $1.944.000.

-We'll probably use T.O. for Ryan Hollins, which values $687.456.

-We'll renounce Jeff McInnis and Derek Anderson, but not Matt Carroll. So he'll count against the cap $2.376.000.

-Unfortunately first round picks are included in the salary even if we don't sign. Suppose we get 5th and 20th picks, this year they are paid approx. 4.1 millions. Assume that this year that'll rise up to 5 millions.
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After all these, we'll enter the market with roughly 47 millions, which means around 9 millions left to sign frees. At this point we have to decide our priorities:

1st step: My impression is that our 1st aim will be Gerald Wallace. Think we sign him to a 10 mil contract. We rise up 48 mils.

I don't like to go further because it looks like our decision on Brezec will be crucial on our activities this summer. We just have to decide very quickly about him. If he goes away we clear 5 millions, and subsequently sign Rashard Lewis type player or two MLE players. After these all, we can look at Okafor and offer him extension.

Summary:
7 guaranteed players = 23 mils
Gerald = 10 mils
Carroll = 4 mils
Other FA signings = 13 mils
Draft picks = 5 mils
Herrmann+Hollins = 3 mils
Total = 58 mils We'll finish this year around Cap Border.

I made loads of approximations so you might see some miscalculations. But that's the situation in my perspective. About Okafor;
There are two max players from 2002 Draft: Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire they are both recieving 12.000.000(according to some websites, that's also 12.455.000) in their first year of extensions.
There are 4 max players from 2003 draft: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade they will all receive 12.455.000 in their first year of extensions.

For 2004 draft maximums, we may expect a roughly 13 millions beginning. After Okafor extension to max, for 2008-09 season we'll again be around the cap border. I don't think we'll go over luxury tax limit at least for 2 more years. But after that, Felton extension, maybe May extension, maybe Morrison extension, maybe Joakim Noah extension and then... oops maybe around 75-80 millions in 2012.

Slam
03-18-2007, 12:15 PM
Crash is worth what ever a team is willing to pay him.

CaptainCrunch
03-18-2007, 12:18 PM
i have a bad feeling that we won't be able to re-sign g-force too.. i hope i'm wrong but thats just my guy feeling

DaFlameking
03-18-2007, 01:47 PM
i swear, we better sign gerald wallace next year. I dont know what im gonna do if we dont.

dvdbumpus
03-18-2007, 05:29 PM
I believe that Brevin's contract is a team option of 4.4 million which will probably be declined.

I could see Crash in a sign and trade now, or Adam in a sign and trade in a few years based on both playing the same position.

rallydurham
03-19-2007, 12:37 AM
I'm thinking we re-sign Gerald and Okafor and dont get any free agents (beyond a $2-$3 million one)

They will certainly let Brezec go.

Honestly by letting Brevin, Carroll, and Hermann go we could sign VC for only a few million more per season. That would be the smart move. We need to shake things up because its obvious things arent working.

We won't be hitting the luxury tax anytime soon don't worry. With our low ticket sales/wins we're not gonna even consider that.

There's no way they let Crash go, the fans would mutiny. You don't let a 24 year old semistar walk.

Morrison we could get rid of after next year if we really wanted to but that would be admitting failure. I bet we'll give him 3-4 years before moving him.

Mustachio
03-19-2007, 09:02 AM
adam morrison is just as big of a star as gerald is. im not saying adam is as good... but i am saying that i can guarentee they sell more Morrison Jerseys than they do gerald wallace jerseys.
so i mean if you think the fans would mutiny over wallace leaving,...

and honestly letting a back up pg, a budding sg, and whatever Hermann is go... for an aging and never very good sg/sf... would be the worst move ever. VC should never be a bobcat. and with the cap situation i very seriously doubt he will.

spectre
03-19-2007, 10:29 AM
To have this discussion you also need a list of the teams who will be able to offer Crash a contract better than ours...which is only like 2 or 3 teams. Orlando would be one, but everything points at them going after either VC or Lewis. Maybe Milwaukee, but I think they'll have to release/move some players to clear the space. Toronto doesn't have the cap available. Any other teams would require a S&T which we're under no obligation to do.

I'm thinking 9 million for 5-6 years should do it.

123together
03-19-2007, 01:41 PM
i think the force can be easily resigned if the team makes the effort. he is not worth a max contract and no one will give him one because of his injury history (but if sam cassell can be traded for marko jaric anything can happen) hopefully. i think we could give him 10-12 million a year for about 4-5 years.

sfflc
03-19-2007, 03:40 PM
i think the force can be easily resigned if the team makes the effort. he is not worth a max contract and no one will give him one because of his injury history (but if sam cassell can be traded for marko jaric anything can happen) hopefully. i think we could give him 10-12 million a year for about 4-5 years.

$12mil/year? Ouch, if it takes that much. I love Wallace's game, because he plays all out. That block of his on Golden State was about the nastiest I've seen in years.
That said, my only concern is the wear and tear on his body as he goes kamakazi out there. Anyone worried that he will have a very shortened career due to earlier injuries and reckless abandon that he plays with?

ziggy
03-19-2007, 03:53 PM
Paul, I love his style of play but his injury history concerns me also. But with that being said, I would still hate to see him go, He and Emeka are the heart and soul of this team.

123together
03-19-2007, 05:41 PM
i can't wait to watch how awesome south carolina is gonna be in football this year. they may beat carolina, but you aren't winning any titles (sec or national) like CAROLINA has in their sport. and remember just like 5 years ago south carolina owned the longest losing streak in the nation at over 20 games. hope your as proud of that as you are all of your national titles (0)

Mustachio
03-19-2007, 05:51 PM
can you block this d-bag


this is an NBA site... if you wanna go off thinking about UNC then go to the appropriate space.

POST IN THE CAROLINA SECTION IF YOUR GONNA TALK ABOUT EITHER ONE.

North Carolina fans have such an over inflated sense of how great they are its ridiculous. If you couldnt get into UNC, you shouldnt be allowed to cheer for them. ... sorry dav your cool.