Analysis on Felton (since McGinnis was released)

[Alex]

Raymond Felton's stats since he's taken over the PG spot full time:
14.7 ppg
8.2 apg
3.1 rpg
39.4% FG-shooting

The span expands over 21 games over which our record is 11-10. We had a very similar record last season when BK was out and Felton played full time PG. Even though those stats aren't much changed than what he produces when he plays off the ball (except for better assists numbers obviously) I believe that if given the opportunity to play PG for 82 games he can lead our team to at least 40 victories. I truly believe that. I don't understand why it took so long for him to get the chance to play the position that he was drafted to play but now he's got it and it's showing in our record. The team responds better to him running the show just like a football team responds better to certain QBs over others.

So what do you guys think? Based on those stats and our play since he's had the keys, should we keep Felton long term, can we win a championship with him (I don't think we can, but I certainly believe we can make the playoffs)?

Discuss.

[ohara831]

Can Felton be a starting PG on a championship team? Yes. Can he be the main cog to get us there? No.
Ray can be a major contributor to the team, but cannot be the "go to guy". J-Rich and Crash are huge, and Okafor could be if he stays and starts playing full time. But we really need one more front line scoring impact player. If we can give Ray one more option, it will not only help him, but make it easier on the others as well since the opposition would have an extra threat to have to deal with on Defense.

[MattD]

hes good but he trys to do waaayyy too much. He is clutch on occasion, but last night showed us why he can hurt us sometimes, he needs to not shoot every game winner and every buzzer beater. But yeah, he looks better, which means hes a better trade piece.

[Slam]

Hes good but he trys to do waaayyy too much.

--------------------------

Yup, yup and yup.

There is a lot of potential there. I thought (short of a couple of bone headed plays) he played the point really well last night against the Wolves and his offense looked good.

He needs to work on some stuff, but I really like what I saw last night.

[ziggy]

Raymond Felton's stats since he's taken over the PG spot full time:
14.7 ppg
8.2 apg
3.1 rpg
39.4% FG-shooting

That FG% is flat out killing me. I agree with you guys that its probably a result of him trying to do too much. If he can do something to reduce those tendencies then we should keep him long term... Unless Derrick Rose falls in our lap.

[ohara831]

Unless Derrick Rose falls in our laps.
Unless Derrick Rose falls in our laps.
Unless Derrick Rose falls in our laps.

I figure if I just keep repeating this phrase all day long every day up until the Lottery balls are selected, then it may please the basketball Gods enough to give us the #1 or #2 selection. Frankly, I'd be happy as a pig in mud with either Rose or Beasley. Hey, I'm not asking that much, am I?

[davcbow]

Let us pray! Dear Basketball gods please bless the Bobcats with the 1st or 2nd pick in this years draft also "fine ham biscuit". :g:

[Mustachio]

Felton is the PG for the Bobcats future. its a system, some organization and coaching leadership that he lacks to make him a top tier guy. and thats it. hes got speed, can pass, has vision, can score when needed. he has all the tools... but no where to show those tools.

If the coaching staff does their job, the results will come.

[Dlpz87]

^^What he said^^

I feel like we should give Felts one more year at full-time at the point. He does try to do too much, but with some more 1st hand experience (and J-Rich's crazy 3 pointers) he'll learn to dish more often than not. We've already seen a result like that with his assist avg climbing slowly. I love his killer instinct, he truly is not afraid to pull the trigger, which, when he is clutch, does impact whether or not we win a close one. When not clutch, not so nice.

Then again, Rose wouldn't be so bad either...

[MattD]

sorry but im still pitching ray for sean williams and marcus williams, and possibly a nets pick (maybe second round or we could push for a restricted 1st)

[CMc$]

His assists would be higher if Mek caught more passes. I think part of the reason he takes so many freaking shots is because he knows that if he drives and kicks or lobs it to a big man that it is going to end up out of bounds. He'll lay it right in Mek's hands, perfectly, and it's a turnover from then on.

He also gets to the foul line like crazy. I know he missed some shots last night, but overall he is one of our better free throw shooters. Granted he gets clobbered when he goes against the bigs and usually ends up missing the shot, he still gets to the line and points are points are points.

Who knows, maybe he is doomed for his life in the NBA. Maybe he'll always be crazy Ray who tries to hard. All I know is I'd rather have a guy that tries too hard than one who doesn't try enough. If the right deal comes through, then let him go, but don't let him go for chump change. Give him a year to play the point. Give him guidance. He'll be a FA next year and if he doesn't put up, then let him go. I don't think his trade stock will go down unless he's injured. He should only improve.

[ohara831]

His assists would be higher if Mek caught more passes. I think part of the reason he takes so many freaking shots is because he knows that if he drives and kicks or lobs it to a big man that it is going to end up out of bounds. He'll lay it right in Mek's hands, perfectly, and it's a turnover from then on.

He also gets to the foul line like crazy. I know he missed some shots last night, but overall he is one of our better free throw shooters. Granted he gets clobbered when he goes against the bigs and usually ends up missing the shot, he still gets to the line and points are points are points.

Who knows, maybe he is doomed for his life in the NBA. Maybe he'll always be crazy Ray who tries to hard. All I know is I'd rather have a guy that tries too hard than one who doesn't try enough. If the right deal comes through, then let him go, but don't let him go for chump change. Give him a year to play the point. Give him guidance. He'll be a FA next year and if he doesn't put up, then let him go. I don't think his trade stock will go down unless he's injured. He should only improve.
_________________________________________________

+1 CMc$. Great arguments and analysis.

[Alex]

Final results:

13-12 record since McGinnis left and Felton took over PG. Anybody else think that we would of gotten 40 wins had Felton been playing PG all season long?

[MattD]

no, I dont. He made the offense way to stagnant everytime he ran the point. He made decent passes, but he still is doing too much. He shoots every buzzer beater, runs too many isolations for himself, and basically dribbles way to much. Earl on the other had drives and kicks. Ray dribbles at the top, waits, dribbles, dribbles, dribbles, and then either pulls up from the top of the key or dishes it to a semi covered man.

I dont like his game or his decision making, maybe its because we give him too much time to overthink what he is doing, but an effective NBA offense cannot be stagnant like we were tonight.

Hes a tough guy, but he wants to lead this team so badly he actually hurts us.

[dnbman]

no, I dont. He made the offense way to stagnant everytime he ran the point. He made decent passes, but he still is doing too much. He shoots every buzzer beater, runs too many isolations for himself, and basically dribbles way to much. Earl on the other had drives and kicks. Ray dribbles at the top, waits, dribbles, dribbles, dribbles, and then either pulls up from the top of the key or dishes it to a semi covered man.

I dont like his game or his decision making, maybe its because we give him too much time to overthink what he is doing, but an effective NBA offense cannot be stagnant like we were tonight.

Hes a tough guy, but he wants to lead this team so badly he actually hurts us.


I don't think that's true at all of either player.

Boykins will dribble most of the possession, as that's one of his few assets. He's just as guilty as Ray of dribbling too much and not getting others involved.

The offensive schemes have been generally terrible, with the team usually be stagnant and occasionally frantic, which isn't to be confused with active and effective. You're right that he does try to do to much and probably tries to do the pick and roll too much. However, that's what they have to work with. There's usually not a lot of movement by anyone other than some simple screens for JRich or Carroll.

Felton's been pretty darn good in the second half. He's made mistakes, but so has everyone on the team. We're not exactly a well oiled machine.

[MattD]

your right on a general term boykins is not a great assist man, but either way, I like he plays the pg position better then ray. I dont know its a really tough situation

If we dont deal him then ray deserves 1 full season at pg under a good system before we really can judge him i guess.

[ohara831]

sorry but im still pitching ray for sean williams and marcus williams, and possibly a nets pick (maybe second round or we could push for a restricted 1st)

__________________________________________________ ________

I am more inclined to give Ray the helm for another yr and let him play the point all yr. That said:

If we got their 1st rounder this yr with Sean and Marcus, then I'd do it. That would give us the two quality bench players along with the #8 and #10 picks. If we did not get love from the BB Gods and one of the balls get us up to get Rose, them we can still land Augustin as a PG and then a PF/C with the other. Two quality bench players and a Top 10 pick would be extremely fair return for Ray. Coupling that with our pick and we can make some quality changes.

[Dead_Real]

Since it's kind of rare to see our players show emotion when they ball it was great seeing Ray so pumped up after he put the nail in the coffin for the Sixers with that drive and lay up in the 4th last night. But yea I'm on the side that thinks with 82 games running the point (even with Sam Vincent) he SHOULD breakout dude just keeps improving we all know Felts can be clutch when the team needs it but his decision making is becoming better and better watching how he connects with Rich, Hollins and Okafor with all those sick passes/allys makes me really excited for the future Felton is our point.

[Mustachio]

its all about chemistry. and i dont know about you guys... but just watching ray play yesterday was awesome.

he wants to play here and he is REALLY FREAKIN GOOD. give him a system, get the team some chemistry let it develop and im telling you WE HAVE OUR PG for the future.

[Slam]

Earl sucks and usually kills out mo when he checks in.

Felts is showing progession. He's now using his speed and a change a speed more effectively. He's finishing at the rim better and his passing has improved.

He still makes some bone headed plays and tries to do too much, but he is getting better.

He needs to be more consistant too - from qtr to qtr and also from game to game, but all in all I think he is a keeper.

With more maturity and time as well as being around a guy like Swish I think a long term investment in him ($30m/5yrs) would be worth while.

Plus he is a warrior and really wants to be here.

I dig that.

[dnbman]

Earl sucks and usually kills out mo when he checks in.

Felts is showing progession. He's now using his speed and a change a speed more effectively. He's finishing at the rim better and his passing has improved.

He still makes some bone headed plays and tries to do too much, but he is getting better.

He needs to be more consistant too - from qtr to qtr and also from game to game, but all in all I think he is a keeper.

With more maturity and time as well as being around a guy like Swish I think a long term investment in him ($30m/5yrs) would be worth while.

Plus he is a warrior and really wants to be here.

I dig that.


I think it's going to be more than $30M; that's Kapono money.

My guess is somewhere in the 7-8M a year category, maybe starting in the high $6M.

Players are expensive.

[110oldeast]

In the final 25 games (13-12 record; 7-9 on the road where they had been TERRIBLE; and 8-4 w/o Gerald Wallace) when the Bobcats made a commitment to playing Felton at pg:

15.5 pts 8.5 assists 2.9 TOs 2.9 A/T ratio 1.2 stl 3.1 reb 42% FG 31% 3pt 81% FT

He did not have great field shooting numbers, but these are not always as instrumental as made out to be for pgs unless you're a pure fantasy analyst. To be a high level pg you don't have to shoot 50% from the floor (44 is a nice target, but you have to look at the sum of the parts). The biggest stat is the difference in winning, an ultimate judge of a pg, especially a guy like Felton who plays better in the 2nd half and 4th quarter. I can say easily that he has easily helped them win more games than he has helped them lose and that as a pg he helps elevate the team closer to their potential than McInnis w/o question.

[MattD]

ok, Ill repost my felton rant here:





Matt,
Admit that you have a Raymond Felton picture that you use for dart practice.

Just having some fun with you, btw.



still the only person i know of that doesnt support Raymond Felton.

i dont have one single worry about PG, SG, SF. its C and PF that concerns me oh and HC.

I know most dont agree with me here, but I think you need to look beyond Rays great 4th quarter moments. There is no doubt he has skill. He is a tough dude who can get into the paint and drive with tremendous skill. He can hit the mid range jumpshot (shooting 41%) and since he has finally been put into his "true" position at PG his numbers have gone up.

However his shooting is still crap, and sometimes when evaluating a player, you have to look beyond the stat sheet. You also have to get passed you UNC/Bobcats biases to look at what it really is. Ray does not run an offense very well. What's the number one rule of Highschool basketball? (Well at least at my highschool?) Dont dribble the ball without purpose.

Ray, who like other great basketball players, is used to being the best on the court, has not gotten past this mentality in the NBA. He stagnates at the top of the key, and litterally his decision making process goes something like this:

1. Wait to see if anyone gets open without me doing anything but dribbling here at the top of the key (If yes, kicks the ball to the guy, generally someone around the three point arc, and then waits to see what happens)
2. Okay no one is open can I drive it (If yes, drive, dont dish, put your head down with reckless abandon and go to the rim, maybe at the last second try to kick it to okafor if he is two feet away from me) hell sometimes that does work though :)
3. If none of these options are open, I can always rely on the trusty 39% jumper, just pull up (making 41%)

Now obviously, Ray makes great plays, great passes, and great shoots from time to time, and his mid range jumper was looking better and better as the year progressed. He is a hard worker, but it doenst change the fact that the offense under ray did not look like a strong offense centered around ball movement.

On Wednesday our offense looked better under Earl. That was when we were up by 23. Earl, who is not the best decision maker either, and is much more centered around scoring, did a better job distributing (no matter the assist numbers, he was able to free up other guys by his own actions)

Ray trys to do way to much. Its obvious in his game, but when we start to get down, he trys to takeover, something he just is not able to do very well. Maybe he is over confident, I dont know, but often when he gets into the mentality I am going to shoot/drive us back into this game, we just get beat even worse, and we start to ignore our other assets and skills.

My last point about Ray will be his irrating comments about how he is the leader of the team and how he wants to be the leader. Leadership really isnt to effective when one says, "Hey I am the leader, I am going to lead this team". I really love that he wants to lead the team, but seriously, earn the leadership. And claiming your the leader doesnt mean you have to shoot every single buzzer beater at the quarter, the half, and for the game. It drove me nuts when with 15 seconds left Ray would run the clock down, wait for it, then do his usual 17 foot pull up. His "leadership" appears way to forced, but granted I am not in the locker room so I cannot know.

These are just my observations. If you guys disagree with me, thats fine. I really dont have any beef with Ray, I even have a game worn signed jersey of his in my closet.


Can you imagine a starting line of Felton/Swish/Crash/Beasley/Okafor? The "lowly Bobcats" would never be so lucky, but for the hell of it now imagine that line-up with an actual coach too.

This is the most common mentality I see on the bobcats board and I am sorry to say but I think its a wee bit crazy. To think one player put into our team will make us great seems far fetched. No doubt I would be excited to see that lineup, even recently I saw Emeka put into a commercial coupled with Vince Carter, Chauncy Billups, Kobe, Lebron, and Tmac, that puts him way up there, but there is a reason why we lost 50 games this season.

Lets not forget how the Mavs are still very good even with a ehh coach, lets not forget how the Cavs are the 4th seed with an ehh coach.

Were not there, I will come back to this post next season, when if we havent made big moves, we will be dealing with the same problem, a sub 40 win team. I thought we could push above .500 this season. We didnt. There is a reason, and it is way to easy to blame the coach, I know he is a nut, but a team that is this close to making real noise in the playoffs as you guys have said, would be able to swing at least an 8th seed with the east being so weak.

Undoubtedly we had our moments this season, beating boston, nearly beating boston, but we also had our moments getting blown out by the knicks and Memphis.

Lets be real here.

God I hope you guys are right, otherwise next year will be hell.


So as I watch the Mavs vs. the Hornets, the announcers are talking about what makes Chris Paul so good, purely, its his decision making, one of Felton's primary weaknesses...

[dnbman]

So as I watch the Mavs vs. the Hornets, the announcers are talking about what makes Chris Paul so good, purely, its his decision making, one of Felton's primary weaknesses...

I'm not trying to take anything away from Chris Paul, because he's fantastic. However, he has the luxury of making great decisions with a great mix of talent around him. At all four positions, he has players that know their roles and are extremely effective at accomplishing them.

We don't have a real four, which great affects both how we play and how teams play us. We don't keep defenses honest like other teams unless Carroll and Richardson are both in the game and hitting shots. During many of our worst losses, guys would get the ball with an open look and simply miss.

Don't get me wrong: Felton made plenty of poor decisions, often overdribbling unnecessarily or gambling on a drive that didn't work. He tried to make some passes that might have been a little too difficult. However, all pgs make bad decisions, including Nash and Paul. I think Felton would have received much less criticism if he had a solid group of players around him, playing clear roles in a defined offense.

[CMc$]

I think Ray may not be the "pg of the future" in regards to the Cats, but I think he is definately the "pg of the immediate future".

There are many better, and better will come along, however, I think most of us here are not willing to start a revolving door of average pg's in and out for the next few years.

Also, in regards to him wanting to be "a leader". You can't really fault him for that. He didn't say "im a superstar" or "im our best offensive option". He simply states that he wants to be a leader. There's a reason he's a co-captain of the team. His peers and the staff think of him as a leader.

And no, Raymond's name is not Chris Paul, nor is it Deron Williams, it is Raymond Felton. We've been saying it awhile now, but give him one flipping year as the floor general, the sole starting pg. His play during that year (if it ever happens) will be his test. Management won't keep him around if he plays poorly.

[110oldeast]

GREAT post. Chris Paul is terrific, but he also receives a disproportionate amount of credit based on a false pretense. People have this bogus notion that he came into New Orleans and just turned the team who was a lottery team into a #2 seed in the West. WRONG. And again, what I am about to post doesn't make him not great, it just points out the flaw in all this Chris Paul would "fix us," Felton is "breaking us" rhetoric.

New Orleans MANAGEMENT DUMPED their ENTIRE roster from the year before Paul except for......David West who is clearly their 2nd best player and a guy I would kill for. They went out and spent money to get shooters around Paul in Peja and MoPete and also got an over the top catch and finish with authority guy in Chandler. Their coach and management had a VISION and have executed it.

2nd their lineup is an IDEAL lineup for a pick and roll pg like Paul and like Felton. They have 2 shooters on the wing who spread the floor, a pick and pop guy who can also finish inside in West and a guy in Chandler who can jump over top of his competition and dunk. Felton is nowhere near the scorer that Paul is, but a lot of Paul's distributing success has to do with the COHESION of the UNIT around him and how they fit the clear AGENDA and SYSTEM of the coach. He is no doubt a great decision maker, but it helps when you have guys on the floor who can complete SIMPLE plays, something the Bobcats don't have a lot of.

This is also the reason that in the final 25 games where we 13-12 that we went 8-4 without Wallace and that Felton had some of his best games, especially distributing. His stats without Wallace in those 12 games were 17.2 pts and 9.8 assists a game with a 3.2 a/t ratio! It's not about Wallace not being better overall than Caroll and Dudley, it's about their abilities to knock down shots and make simple plays that don't require isolation and don't clog the lane. It makes the offense more fluid and better illustrates Felton's potential as a playmaker.

BTW, his TOs (while always having room to improve) at times are overrated as Nash, Kidd, Williams, etc. all easily avg. more TOs than he does even with better offensive weapons, especially in the frontcourt. He can stand to improve, but the Bobcats issues have to do with their inability to except and recognize the value of SHOOTING in the halfcourt. And using Boykins work against Philly's B team (the starters only played when Felton was in) is a reach to me to say that he the better pg for the team. He provides a nice backup option, but at some point the Bobcats need to let the back up pg be the backup pg.






So as I watch the Mavs vs. the Hornets, the announcers are talking about what makes Chris Paul so good, purely, its his decision making, one of Felton's primary weaknesses...

I'm not trying to take anything away from Chris Paul, because he's fantastic. However, he has the luxury of making great decisions with a great mix of talent around him. At all four positions, he has players that know their roles and are extremely effective at accomplishing them.

We don't have a real four, which great affects both how we play and how teams play us. We don't keep defenses honest like other teams unless Carroll and Richardson are both in the game and hitting shots. During many of our worst losses, guys would get the ball with an open look and simply miss.

Don't get me wrong: Felton made plenty of poor decisions, often overdribbling unnecessarily or gambling on a drive that didn't work. He tried to make some passes that might have been a little too difficult. However, all pgs make bad decisions, including Nash and Paul. I think Felton would have received much less criticism if he had a solid group of players around him, playing clear roles in a defined offense.

[110oldeast]

BTW Matt D, most pgs who don't have guys who create well or don't have a post guy to dump it into can dominate the ball at times. Nash and Paul often have the ball for most of their team's possession which is a large part of why they score and assist on so many of the points. This can reduce when teams have a more open, free flowing lineup with various shooters to whom teams have to react. That's why the ball moves so well when Dudley is in at the 4 alongside Carroll and Richardson on the wings. If Felton penetrates with this group and throws to one of them, the defense HAS to react (unlike with Crash), b/c they are a threat to hit the shot, meaning they have to help and rotate creating more opportunities for ball rotations, extra passes, etc. as the defense is now in reactionary mode.

Felton can definitely grow in the halfcourt, but he is best when using the pick and roll (as are Paul, Williams, Nash, etc.) and when attacking the lane. His shot selection will need to improve as he should spend the offseason working on his in between and midrange game that are available via the pick and roll and 3s off of kickouts and ball rotations as opposed to off the dribble. The other part of the equation is the Bobcats surrounding him with the right pieces that properly balance the floor and fit into this system in the halfcourt. We need legitimate frontcourt scoring, preferably a 4 who can step out and knock down the jumper as well as finish around the rim.

The funny thing is that he and the team tend to play better when he is ATTACKING, driving to the basket, to finish, kick out, or dish. He tends to do it more in the 4th quarter and contrary to what you said this doesn't usually increase our deficit. In fact it usually does the opposite and often has played a role in close wins down the stretch, as it blends multiple elements: 1) The ability to get in the lane and finish or get fouled and make late FTs; 2) Opening up the offensive rebound lanes for Okafor; 3) Forcing help off of Carroll and/or Richardson, giving them better looks; amd 4) Allowing a dish to Okafor when he catches and goes up quickly and aggressively. Now if he is SETTLING for jumpers, that is a different situation and may result in the deficit growing. But as far as him being in attack mode, driving and being aggressive, it does tend to yield better results than him being passive.

[ReesieNCPantherCatfan1]

+1 110oldeast. Good arguments about felton. I think we are fairly solid at PG. I hate the play where Ray holds the ball for 15 seconds, drives and shoots a fadeaway as much as anyone else, but if even Bonnell can come around on Ray (he of the man crush on BK) then we should be able to as well.

Ray has certainly progressed this season and with a full run at ONLY pg next year I think he will do well. There are certainly guys that are better, but ray is in the upper half of PG's at least. I think we need to spend more time worrying about our rebounding differential, lack of effort from Mek (even though he came around at the end -contract push), and our atrocious head coach than we do with Ray.

[QCHeel]

Someone will have to explain to me the finer points of the Bobcats' offense. I don't recognize an actual offense being run, except a few isos on the wing.

I can't expect Ray to run an offense that is stagnant, and in the halfcourt, has no real post scoring threat. Ray's jumpshot is very inconsistent, but I have trouble critiquing his decision-making when I personally have no idea what the Bobcats are attempting to accomplish offensively.

Vincent has not implemented an actual scheme or purpose to the offense. All the top teams execute one way in the fullcourt and one way in the halfcourt. You can see the checkoffs within the flow of the offense. Watch the Bobcats and watch the crapshoot. Anything can happen any possession.