Hollinger's ratings [Archive] - Bobcatsplanet Forum

biz

12-27-2008, 06:45 AM

For all the stat geeks like myself, after the win last night we jumped from 21st to 15th in Hollinger's NBA rankings.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking We have all seen with our own eyes the improved play, but nice to finally have some statistical support. Moving up more is going to be rather difficult, with #14 Dallas being almost 3 points ahead of us... but they are marked men! Dallas, we are coming for you!

MattD

12-27-2008, 02:03 PM

we are now 15 in hollingers power rankings, which are based strictly off math... NICE

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking

it doesnt mean anything yet in terms of our record, but it means we are playing much better and improving, well at least statistically.

thoughts?

ammofan

12-27-2008, 03:55 PM

sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeettttt

BIGCatBobcat

12-27-2008, 04:03 PM

I don't really know what it means but, umm cool? We'd be 6th in the east based on this list.

BRNC

12-27-2008, 10:48 PM

ohara831

12-27-2008, 11:56 PM

Well, we just pooped on our chance to move up more. Crappy home loss to the Nets. We have the Knicks next, so perhaps LB will have these guys motivated to play with more focus at that game.

And now we are back at #20.

biz

12-29-2008, 07:42 AM

The problem is the 3-4 teams right behind (and they are all in the east) us have higher SOS...which means they will face more bad teams as the season goes on...whereas we'll probably have a slightly tougher schedule compared to those teams...

SOS is already accounted for in the rankings. Having a low SOS makes our stats inflated, true, but the stats are adjusted for that and "count" less.

BRNC

12-29-2008, 11:43 AM

SOS is already accounted for in the rankings. Having a low SOS makes our stats inflated, true, but the stats are adjusted for that and "count" less.

I was speaking in terms of the teams we will have to play (better teams) the rest of the season vs. who those 3-4 teams will have to play...not the effect of the current SOS on where we are (were) ranked...

biz

12-29-2008, 11:44 PM

I was speaking in terms of the teams we will have to play (better teams) the rest of the season vs. who those 3-4 teams will have to play...not the effect of the current SOS on where we are (were) ranked...

That's the entire point of the rankings, to incorporate SOS and other variables, and even them out amongst all the teams, creating even comparisons. The rankings boil down to SOS vs. point margin, so as those 3-4 teams play easier teams, that will hurt their rankings, unless their point margins increase equivalently. The low SOS the Bobcats have at the moment hurts their ranking, but they had a high enough point margin to compensate. That's the equalizer, if a team has an easy schedule, they should have a high point margin to show for it, and if they don't, then they aren't a good team. In the future if the Bobcats are forced to play better teams, their SOS increase will HELP their rankings, but their decreased point margin will hurt their rankings. It all comes down to how much their SOS increases compared to how much their point margin decreases. As far as the rankings are concerned, SOS by itself is an irrelevant stat and is only useful when looking at it compared to point margin.

To simplify the formula, Let's say every .1 of SOS is worth +/- 2 points. So you beat a .2 SOS team by +6 points, so to bring that .2 SOS up to a .5 is worth -6 points, so that win is actually is worth +/- 0 points. If a team loses to a .8 SOS team by 2 points, to bring that .8 SOS down to .5 is +6, so in reality that loss is worth +4 points. If every game is evened out to a .5 SOS, all teams have played an even schedule, and it all comes down to who has the highest point margin. It is impossible to use a future increase or decrease in SOS as a predictor for changes in the ratings, because as far as the ratings are concerned all teams have played a .500 SOS so far, and all teams will continue to play a .500 SOS.

BRNC

12-30-2008, 07:57 AM

You did simplify to the point of excluding wins...if SOS was more important all the teams (3-4) that were behind us at the time had a higher SOS...I understand the weighting of SOS as Hollinger uses it and that the SOS as stated at any given point in time is the SOS against teams played not for the entire season...Bobcats SOS=.508...Pacers SOS=.553...it is likely that the Pacers will have more games against teams with a crappy recors than we will the rest of the season...that is my point...those 3-4 teams (at the time) that were below us in his ranking all had a higher SOS and it would be likely that they would have an easier schedule..that is it...