playoffs...PLAYOFFS?
01-07-2009, 04:24 PM
There's been plenty of discussions about DJ being a great pick for us and the game he played against Rose last time the Bulls where in town..and how DJ should be the starting PG
But...outside the Bobcats world, things are a bit different.
Here are Hollinger's predictions for 2009 from ESPN. You'll need insider access, so I've copied paste sections that are relevant
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Predictions-090107
Are we just plain dillusional about DJ's merits? Or is ESPN really not in tune with the Bobcats?
1. This season's best rookie guard will not be Mayo or Rose
Since everyone sees this rookie of the year race as a two-man chase between Derrick Rose (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3456) and O.J. Mayo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3450), let me steal a page from Rob Neyer and present this comparison:
Player A: 37.3 min., 16.3 pts., 6.2 ast., 45.9 FG%, 13.58 PER
Player B: 36.4 min., 17.7 pts., 3.8 ast., 43.8 FG%, 14.03 PER
Player C: 33.1 min., 15.5 pts., 5.1 ast., 46.2 FG%, 16.23 PER
Player A is Rose in the month of December. Player B is Mayo in the month of December.
And Player C, who has more combined points and assists per minute than either Rose or Mayo, a better shooting percentage and a higher Player Efficiency Rating? That would be Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3468) in the month of December.
He's getting zero attention because he had a dreadful November and his team has won only five games. But Westbrook has been spectacular over the past month -- he shot 34.5 percent in November but 46.2 percent in December and hung 22 points, nine assists and six rebounds on the Knicks on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Rose and Mayo have cooled off from their hot starts.
Westbrook also is the youngest of the three, the best defender and the only one who had to change positions upon arriving in the NBA. All of which suggests he's only scratching the surface of his potential -- as does the fact that he has a higher turnover ratio than the other two, which, in a paradoxical twist of logic, is actually a good thing for a rookie. Historically, those with high turnover rates have had much higher rates of improvement in subsequent seasons.
So 12 months from now, don't be surprised if we're calling Westbrook the top guard from this rookie class.
3. The rookies will beat the sophs at All-Star Weekend
Although it might not match the awesome individual talents of the 2003 draft, this has been perhaps the deepest rookie class in memory, and we'll get to see why next month in Phoenix.
The sophomores usually dominate this event, but this is the first time in a while that the matchup looks fair on paper. In fact, the biggest problem for the rookies might be narrowing their ranks to a nine-man roster -- 12 rookies have PERs greater than 13 while playing more than 20 minute a game, and that doesn't include defensive ace Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3451) in Milwaukee.
The likely roster will be Greg Oden (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3225), Brook Lopez (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3448), Marc Gasol (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3206) and Michael Beasley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3418) up front, Rose, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3204) and Westbrook in the backcourt and Mbah a Moute on the wing. Compare that lineup to the sophomores'. They will be giving up size with Al Horford (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3213) as the lone center -- Carl Landry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3217) and Luis Scola (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1781) are his likely cohorts on the front line -- and will have only one real guard, Rodney Stuckey (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3235). The rest of the roster figures to be forwards Kevin Durant (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3202), Jeff Green (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3209), Thaddeus Young (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3244), Al Thornton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3237) and Wilson Chandler (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3194).
On paper, it seems like the rookies should be able to make quite a game of it. And since these usually are guard-dominated affairs and the sophs basically have no guards, the game might be even more in the rookies' favor.
But...outside the Bobcats world, things are a bit different.
Here are Hollinger's predictions for 2009 from ESPN. You'll need insider access, so I've copied paste sections that are relevant
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Predictions-090107
Are we just plain dillusional about DJ's merits? Or is ESPN really not in tune with the Bobcats?
1. This season's best rookie guard will not be Mayo or Rose
Since everyone sees this rookie of the year race as a two-man chase between Derrick Rose (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3456) and O.J. Mayo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3450), let me steal a page from Rob Neyer and present this comparison:
Player A: 37.3 min., 16.3 pts., 6.2 ast., 45.9 FG%, 13.58 PER
Player B: 36.4 min., 17.7 pts., 3.8 ast., 43.8 FG%, 14.03 PER
Player C: 33.1 min., 15.5 pts., 5.1 ast., 46.2 FG%, 16.23 PER
Player A is Rose in the month of December. Player B is Mayo in the month of December.
And Player C, who has more combined points and assists per minute than either Rose or Mayo, a better shooting percentage and a higher Player Efficiency Rating? That would be Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3468) in the month of December.
He's getting zero attention because he had a dreadful November and his team has won only five games. But Westbrook has been spectacular over the past month -- he shot 34.5 percent in November but 46.2 percent in December and hung 22 points, nine assists and six rebounds on the Knicks on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Rose and Mayo have cooled off from their hot starts.
Westbrook also is the youngest of the three, the best defender and the only one who had to change positions upon arriving in the NBA. All of which suggests he's only scratching the surface of his potential -- as does the fact that he has a higher turnover ratio than the other two, which, in a paradoxical twist of logic, is actually a good thing for a rookie. Historically, those with high turnover rates have had much higher rates of improvement in subsequent seasons.
So 12 months from now, don't be surprised if we're calling Westbrook the top guard from this rookie class.
3. The rookies will beat the sophs at All-Star Weekend
Although it might not match the awesome individual talents of the 2003 draft, this has been perhaps the deepest rookie class in memory, and we'll get to see why next month in Phoenix.
The sophomores usually dominate this event, but this is the first time in a while that the matchup looks fair on paper. In fact, the biggest problem for the rookies might be narrowing their ranks to a nine-man roster -- 12 rookies have PERs greater than 13 while playing more than 20 minute a game, and that doesn't include defensive ace Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3451) in Milwaukee.
The likely roster will be Greg Oden (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3225), Brook Lopez (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3448), Marc Gasol (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3206) and Michael Beasley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3418) up front, Rose, Mayo, Rudy Fernandez (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3204) and Westbrook in the backcourt and Mbah a Moute on the wing. Compare that lineup to the sophomores'. They will be giving up size with Al Horford (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3213) as the lone center -- Carl Landry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3217) and Luis Scola (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1781) are his likely cohorts on the front line -- and will have only one real guard, Rodney Stuckey (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3235). The rest of the roster figures to be forwards Kevin Durant (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3202), Jeff Green (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3209), Thaddeus Young (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3244), Al Thornton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3237) and Wilson Chandler (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3194).
On paper, it seems like the rookies should be able to make quite a game of it. And since these usually are guard-dominated affairs and the sophs basically have no guards, the game might be even more in the rookies' favor.