BRNC
06-18-2009, 08:02 PM
I'm trying to cut and paste as much as I can find...I will paste in more as I can...for those who love DeRozan...well...do you think he is a potential huge bust?
“To review for the uninitiated, the Draft Rater looks at a player’s college production in a variety of metrics and a few other salient facts (such as his height, birth date and years of college experience), and from that projects what a player’s Player Efficiency Rating will be when he reaches his peak.
According to Hollinger, the Draft Rater also has spotted some of the biggest steals in recent years:
• Carlos Boozer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1703) was the 26th collegian taken in 2002; Draft Rater had him second.
• Josh Howard (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2006) was 17th in 2003; Draft Rater had him fifth.
• Danny Granger (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2760) was the 13th collegian in 2005; Draft Rater had him third.
• Rajon Rondo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3026) was the 16th collegian taken in 2006, but Draft Rater had him second.
• Rodney Stuckey (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3235) was the 14th collegian chosen in 2007; Draft Rater had him fifth.
• And last year, two players the Draft Rater had rated much higher than others did, Mario Chalmers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3419) and George Hill (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3438), had productive rookie seasons.
Top 12 Player According to Hollinger’s Device:
1. Ty Lawson, 2. Blake Griffin, 3. Ty Evans, 4. Austin Daye, 5. Steph Curry, 6. Nick Calathes, 7. Dejuan Blair, 8. Danny Green, 9. Flynn, 10. James Harden, 11. Hasheem Thabeet, 12. Earl Clark
This only rates college players, so Rubio is not on the list. He highlights DeMar DeRozan as one of the biggest potential busts, something that I can agree with after seeing him play.
One problem that I have with Hollinger’s mechanisms is that they are so, well, mechanical. They are clever and complex, sure, but there is a lot more to basketball than stats.
he pleasant surprise: Ty Lawson There are two players who are neck-and-neck for the top spot in this year's Draft Rater. You could easily guess that one of them is Blake Griffin, but most folks never would have guessed that the other is Lawson.
Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Though he's short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.
The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn't mean a team should take Lawson first -- the standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don't think Lawson's statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we've heard questions about Lawson's work ethic and injuries.
But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague and Co. (If you're wondering about Ricky Rubio, I'll have more on him next week.)
The unpleasant surprise: DeMar DeRozan
I'd be hard-pressed to name a potential high lottery pick through the years that the Draft Rater has been less excited about. I rated 90 prospects for this draft, and DeRozan ranked 54th among them. Two of his teammates -- Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson -- outranked him, as did assorted other non-entities like Kevin Rogers, Chinemelu Elonu and Ben Woodside. I'll wait here while you Google them.
Why? Because there really isn't anything in DeRozan's statistical profile that makes you think "NBA star." He rarely took or made 3-pointers and he had a strongly negative pure point rating, which are two powerful indicators for a wing player, and his numbers in other areas were unimpressive, too. In particular, he was a bad free-throw shooter, which indicates that his outside shot might not ever be a strong suit.
Some scouts I have talked to have compared DeRozan to Rudy Gay in terms of being an NBA athlete but having a questionable motor, but that comparison falls flat, according to the Draft Rater: Gay was the top-rated player in his draft class, while DeRozan is nowhere close. And while he's supposed to be a great athlete, he didn't show it on the court often enough: His rebound, block and steal totals were all very ordinary.
As I mentioned above, one-and-done players sometimes fool the system -- they're the youngest, least experienced guys in the pool, and, thus, a major factor is how much they improve post-draft rather than just how good they are pre-draft.
Nonetheless, I'd back away from DeRozan if the 12 relatively safe guys at the top of the Draft Rater are still on the board.
Speaking of which, let's take a look at the collegians for 2009.
Rankings: The Top 12
Top 12-Rated Collegians For 2009
Player School Draft Rater
1. Ty Lawson North Carolina 16.34
2. Blake Griffin Oklahoma 16.21
3. Tyreke Evans Memphis 15.02
4. Austin Daye Gonzaga 14.24
5. Stephen Curry Davidson 14.18
6. Nick Calathes Florida 13.66
7. DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh 13.56
8. Danny Green North Carolina 13.28
9. Jonny Flynn Syracuse 12.99
10. James Harden Arizona St. 12.97
11. Hasheem Thabeet Connecticut 12.90
12. Earl Clark Louisville 12.88
For starters, let's talk about two of the players who play multiple positions -- this matters now that we're rating players in part based on position.
Stephen Curry graded out at 14.18 as a wing, but only 12.86 a point guard. Either way it puts him in the top dozen players, but by this rating he's a much better prospect if he's able to defend against wings.
The difference for Earl Clark was less dramatic, but he rated slightly better as a wing than as a big man (12.14), which would have dropped him from 12th to 15th.
A couple other names on here are likely to raise eyebrows:
Austin Daye may not have had a great season, but the Draft Rater looks favorably upon a 6-11 small forward who can shoot (assuming he can play the 3 in the NBA). His numbers were strongest in the categories that project best to the pros, including 42.9 percent on 3s and 2.1 blocks per game, which is why he moves all the way up to No. 4 on this list.
Nick Calathes is under contract in Greece but still will be draft-eligible, and he rates higher than the hot point guards most teams are discussing in the top 15. Though knocked for his athleticism, he had high rates of rebounds and steals and a strong 2-point shooting percentage. Teams in luxury tax trouble should look particularly hard at him since he can be stashed in Europe for a year or so.
Danny Green is the other surprise on this list. He's rated highly every year I've done this, so seeing him doesn't shock me anymore, but he's received little attention nationally. Still, he's a great shooter who can defend and he rates as the third-best wing after Daye and Tyreke Evans.
Rankings: 13 To 25
Collegians: No. 13 through 25
Player School Draft Rater
13. Jrue Holiday UCLA 12.73
14. Jeff Teague Wake Forest 12.50
15. Gerald Henderson Duke 12.17
16. Paul Delaney UAB 11.85
17. Aaron Jackson Duquesne 11.83
18. Darren Collison UCLA 11.80
19. Terrence Williams Louisville 11.80
20. Leo Lyons Missouri 11.53
21. Eric Maynor VCU 11.35
22. John Bryant Santa Clara 11.30
23. DeMarre Carroll Missouri 11.18
24. Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina 11.11
25. Wayne Ellington North Carolina 11.04
This part of the list is an interesting mishmash of potential sleepers and potential busts. In general, players in this range have some kind of NBA career but can always count on getting some quality time with the family during All-Star Weekend.
We're awash in point guards in this draft and the six of the top nine names in this section play the position. The lesson is this: If you're in the market for a point guard, one will fall to you and they're more or less the same after the first couple.
Down at No. 13, Holiday is a bit of a surprise -- given that he's projected to go higher -- but he has the two characteristics that produce the greatest error rate in the Draft Rater: he's a point guard and he's played only one year. In other words, his real value might be much higher or much lower, and since the consensus is much higher, it wouldn't bother me to use a top-8 pick on him.
Delaney and Jackson are second-round sleepers at the point, but since projections for point guards are a bit more volatile, perhaps they shouldn't really be this high. The other "who's he?" on the list, Bryant, is a 6-11, 275-pound center from Santa Clara who could have a fine 10-year career as a third center in the Greg Kite/Aaron Gray mold.
“To review for the uninitiated, the Draft Rater looks at a player’s college production in a variety of metrics and a few other salient facts (such as his height, birth date and years of college experience), and from that projects what a player’s Player Efficiency Rating will be when he reaches his peak.
According to Hollinger, the Draft Rater also has spotted some of the biggest steals in recent years:
• Carlos Boozer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1703) was the 26th collegian taken in 2002; Draft Rater had him second.
• Josh Howard (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2006) was 17th in 2003; Draft Rater had him fifth.
• Danny Granger (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2760) was the 13th collegian in 2005; Draft Rater had him third.
• Rajon Rondo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3026) was the 16th collegian taken in 2006, but Draft Rater had him second.
• Rodney Stuckey (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3235) was the 14th collegian chosen in 2007; Draft Rater had him fifth.
• And last year, two players the Draft Rater had rated much higher than others did, Mario Chalmers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3419) and George Hill (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3438), had productive rookie seasons.
Top 12 Player According to Hollinger’s Device:
1. Ty Lawson, 2. Blake Griffin, 3. Ty Evans, 4. Austin Daye, 5. Steph Curry, 6. Nick Calathes, 7. Dejuan Blair, 8. Danny Green, 9. Flynn, 10. James Harden, 11. Hasheem Thabeet, 12. Earl Clark
This only rates college players, so Rubio is not on the list. He highlights DeMar DeRozan as one of the biggest potential busts, something that I can agree with after seeing him play.
One problem that I have with Hollinger’s mechanisms is that they are so, well, mechanical. They are clever and complex, sure, but there is a lot more to basketball than stats.
he pleasant surprise: Ty Lawson There are two players who are neck-and-neck for the top spot in this year's Draft Rater. You could easily guess that one of them is Blake Griffin, but most folks never would have guessed that the other is Lawson.
Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Though he's short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.
The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn't mean a team should take Lawson first -- the standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don't think Lawson's statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we've heard questions about Lawson's work ethic and injuries.
But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague and Co. (If you're wondering about Ricky Rubio, I'll have more on him next week.)
The unpleasant surprise: DeMar DeRozan
I'd be hard-pressed to name a potential high lottery pick through the years that the Draft Rater has been less excited about. I rated 90 prospects for this draft, and DeRozan ranked 54th among them. Two of his teammates -- Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson -- outranked him, as did assorted other non-entities like Kevin Rogers, Chinemelu Elonu and Ben Woodside. I'll wait here while you Google them.
Why? Because there really isn't anything in DeRozan's statistical profile that makes you think "NBA star." He rarely took or made 3-pointers and he had a strongly negative pure point rating, which are two powerful indicators for a wing player, and his numbers in other areas were unimpressive, too. In particular, he was a bad free-throw shooter, which indicates that his outside shot might not ever be a strong suit.
Some scouts I have talked to have compared DeRozan to Rudy Gay in terms of being an NBA athlete but having a questionable motor, but that comparison falls flat, according to the Draft Rater: Gay was the top-rated player in his draft class, while DeRozan is nowhere close. And while he's supposed to be a great athlete, he didn't show it on the court often enough: His rebound, block and steal totals were all very ordinary.
As I mentioned above, one-and-done players sometimes fool the system -- they're the youngest, least experienced guys in the pool, and, thus, a major factor is how much they improve post-draft rather than just how good they are pre-draft.
Nonetheless, I'd back away from DeRozan if the 12 relatively safe guys at the top of the Draft Rater are still on the board.
Speaking of which, let's take a look at the collegians for 2009.
Rankings: The Top 12
Top 12-Rated Collegians For 2009
Player School Draft Rater
1. Ty Lawson North Carolina 16.34
2. Blake Griffin Oklahoma 16.21
3. Tyreke Evans Memphis 15.02
4. Austin Daye Gonzaga 14.24
5. Stephen Curry Davidson 14.18
6. Nick Calathes Florida 13.66
7. DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh 13.56
8. Danny Green North Carolina 13.28
9. Jonny Flynn Syracuse 12.99
10. James Harden Arizona St. 12.97
11. Hasheem Thabeet Connecticut 12.90
12. Earl Clark Louisville 12.88
For starters, let's talk about two of the players who play multiple positions -- this matters now that we're rating players in part based on position.
Stephen Curry graded out at 14.18 as a wing, but only 12.86 a point guard. Either way it puts him in the top dozen players, but by this rating he's a much better prospect if he's able to defend against wings.
The difference for Earl Clark was less dramatic, but he rated slightly better as a wing than as a big man (12.14), which would have dropped him from 12th to 15th.
A couple other names on here are likely to raise eyebrows:
Austin Daye may not have had a great season, but the Draft Rater looks favorably upon a 6-11 small forward who can shoot (assuming he can play the 3 in the NBA). His numbers were strongest in the categories that project best to the pros, including 42.9 percent on 3s and 2.1 blocks per game, which is why he moves all the way up to No. 4 on this list.
Nick Calathes is under contract in Greece but still will be draft-eligible, and he rates higher than the hot point guards most teams are discussing in the top 15. Though knocked for his athleticism, he had high rates of rebounds and steals and a strong 2-point shooting percentage. Teams in luxury tax trouble should look particularly hard at him since he can be stashed in Europe for a year or so.
Danny Green is the other surprise on this list. He's rated highly every year I've done this, so seeing him doesn't shock me anymore, but he's received little attention nationally. Still, he's a great shooter who can defend and he rates as the third-best wing after Daye and Tyreke Evans.
Rankings: 13 To 25
Collegians: No. 13 through 25
Player School Draft Rater
13. Jrue Holiday UCLA 12.73
14. Jeff Teague Wake Forest 12.50
15. Gerald Henderson Duke 12.17
16. Paul Delaney UAB 11.85
17. Aaron Jackson Duquesne 11.83
18. Darren Collison UCLA 11.80
19. Terrence Williams Louisville 11.80
20. Leo Lyons Missouri 11.53
21. Eric Maynor VCU 11.35
22. John Bryant Santa Clara 11.30
23. DeMarre Carroll Missouri 11.18
24. Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina 11.11
25. Wayne Ellington North Carolina 11.04
This part of the list is an interesting mishmash of potential sleepers and potential busts. In general, players in this range have some kind of NBA career but can always count on getting some quality time with the family during All-Star Weekend.
We're awash in point guards in this draft and the six of the top nine names in this section play the position. The lesson is this: If you're in the market for a point guard, one will fall to you and they're more or less the same after the first couple.
Down at No. 13, Holiday is a bit of a surprise -- given that he's projected to go higher -- but he has the two characteristics that produce the greatest error rate in the Draft Rater: he's a point guard and he's played only one year. In other words, his real value might be much higher or much lower, and since the consensus is much higher, it wouldn't bother me to use a top-8 pick on him.
Delaney and Jackson are second-round sleepers at the point, but since projections for point guards are a bit more volatile, perhaps they shouldn't really be this high. The other "who's he?" on the list, Bryant, is a 6-11, 275-pound center from Santa Clara who could have a fine 10-year career as a third center in the Greg Kite/Aaron Gray mold.