Hollinger's Positional Rankings

[ohara831]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/rankings?pos=1

This was from Insider, so I hope it will paste. But he ranked all positions by the PER. IN case it wont paste, he ranks the Bobcat starters as follows:

PG: DJ at #15, Ray at #28
SG: Bell at #47
SF: Crash at #7
PF: Diaw at #37
C: Chandler at #36 (Okafor is #13)

[Walt Cronkite]

NOW THIS is where I love me some Hollinger. For everyone with insider, you can now click on almost every player in the nba (even rookies) and get a pretty in depth scouting report where you will most certainly learn something you didn't know. Hollinger used to print an annual prospectus, but now it's just online. I do wish there was still a hard copy. He used to do similarity scores too, which was awesome. b-r did at one point as well, not sure why they both dropped them, it was never anything to put too much salt in, but it was a cool reference to keep things in perspective.

[Walt Cronkite]

ex: Raymond Felton

2008-09 season: Well, at least he's consistent. Remarkably consistent, actually, even as his role has constantly shifted from starting point guard to starting shooting guard to something in between. Felton notched his fourth straight year with a PER between 13.55 and 14.30 and once again delivered 40-minute averages of just over 15 points and seven assists.

He's 25 and maintained this pattern long enough to make the evaluation process really easy -- he's a good third guard who has been forced to start for four years because of the Bobcats' lack of quality backcourt options.

Felton is both a poor 3-point shooter (28.5 percent last year) and a bad finisher (45.8 percent in the immediate basket area; only three players with more than 200 attempts fared worse). Those weaknesses make it very difficult for him to score efficiently, with his TS% ranking 55th out of 69 point guards. That, in turn, has kept his PER below the league average in all four of his pro seasons despite decent production in the other categories.

Scouting report: Felton demonstrated a better teardrop shot from closer range last year than in previous seasons, but he remains guilty of trying to go all the way to the basket instead of pulling up. At 6-1 without explosive leaping ability, that tendency too often leaves him trying to finish over and around arms, with tremendously bad results. He's a decent passer and an adequate midrange shooter (41.5 percent on long 2s), but he'd score much more effectively if he'd pull up more often.

Defensively, Felton had the best on-court vs. off-court numbers of his career last season, although Charlotte's starting unit as a whole had very strong differentials, so it's tough to assign individual credit. He does a good job against most point guards but hasn't seemed to fare as well at the 2 the past couple of seasons, which is hardly surprising considering the inches he's giving up.

One other positive is that most Bobcats observers regard him as a tremendous teammate, which is the type of thing that could keep him in the league for several extra years toward the end of his career.

2009-10 outlook: Felton signed the Bobcats' qualifying offer of a one-year, $5.5 million deal after he couldn't find anything better in restricted free agency. He'll try again next summer, when there should be more money chasing the market. Unfortunately, he probably won't help himself much unless he shows significant improvement this season, as he's done nothing in his four seasons to suggest he's more than a third guard on a good team. He'll have to fight to retain his starting gig, too, with second-year pro D.J. Augustin pushing him for playing time. While Felton's per-minute numbers may not change much, his per-game numbers could take a big hit since he's unlikely to average 37 minutes a game again this season.

[ND22]

I'm honestly trying to figure out exactly how these rankings work because according to Hollinger, JJ Reddick is more efficient than Courtney Lee.

[Walt Cronkite]

Also, how it works: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=3055049

Summary: data pool from the past 20 years a comparison is found based on age, hight and statistics over the past 3 seasons. Projections are adjusted based on what the most similar players did the next season. Good qualification to ALWAYS remember: "But consider these numbers a median estimate for what the player might be likely to do this coming season, other things being equal. And then, if other things aren't equal, apply your own logic from there."

[teej]

Walt, can you post the rest of the players here?

[Walt Cronkite]

What's the point, it's written by some moron with no credibility since he's not in an NBA front office...

[ND22]

What's the point, it's written by some moron with no credibility since he's not in an NBA front office...

Who also teases you with headlines for interesting articles then shuts you out by slapping his "ESPN Insider" tag on all of his stuff.

[Walt Cronkite]

ND22, he was hired by ESPN insider. Your issue is with ESPN, not Hollinger. Take it up with his editors I guess, who should make less interesting headlines so you don't think you're missing out on anything.

[spectre]

What's the point, it's written by some moron with no credibility since he's not in an NBA front office...

:hysterical:

Sorry...but that was funny!


he's a good third guard who has been forced to start for four years because of the Bobcats' lack of quality backcourt options.Wait a minute...he IS a moron! :p

Felton certainly isn't "all that"...but he could at least be the 1st guy off the bench on a good team. Saying he's 3rd guard material is just...moronic.

[teej]

What's the point, it's written by some moron with no credibility since he's not in an NBA front office...

It gives me something to read.

And Walt, do YOU think Felton is a third guard in this league?

[SWedd523]

I'm honestly trying to figure out exactly how these rankings work because according to Hollinger, JJ Reddick is more efficient than Courtney Lee.
Also says Brandan Wright is more efficient than Melo, Pierce, and Crash

[Walt Cronkite]

Felton certainly isn't "all that"...but he could at least be the 1st guy off the bench on a good team. Saying he's 3rd guard material is just...moronic.

3rd guard=1st guard off of the bench..

[ND22]

ND22, he was hired by ESPN insider. Your issue is with ESPN, not Hollinger. Take it up with his editors I guess, who should make less interesting headlines so you don't think you're missing out on anything.

I understand that, and I should have worded my post to say, "ESPN" instead of Hollinger. But regardless of who is responsible, it still annoys me.

[teej]

Also says Brandan Wright is more efficient than Melo, Pierce, and Crash

That's just...mentally unstable.

If anyone believes it, anyway.

[Walt Cronkite]

It gives me something to read.

And Walt, do YOU think Felton is a third guard in this league?

A lot depends on this season. He's a really great defender and I love his passion for the game, but he kills us with his inability to shoot. I've gone on record over this summer stating that Felton could be the starting point guard on a championship team because of his poise and defense, but he'd have to be the fifth option on offense... maaaybe fourth if his shooting improves with time. But yea, I'd say he's a pretty average player that you optimally want coming off of the bench.

[Walt Cronkite]

That's just...mentally unstable.

If anyone believes it, anyway.

You guys know about sample size, right? Wright doesn't even appear on the list of pfs. There are always guys that shoot up the overall list because of awesome per minute stats, Wright is one of them. They're usually pfs because they are exceptionally skilled but physically flawed players or hustle guys that are super efficient.

[ND22]

But yea, I'd say he's a pretty average player that you optimally want coming off of the bench.

This part of your post makes me beg the question...considering the potential that Augustin has, I think most of us would agree he is our point guard of the future. Felton has stated that he wants to stay in Charlotte and how much he loves it here, but lets say Augustin really steps up his game this year and earns the starting job, do you think Felton would submit to being the 6th man on this team?

[Walt Cronkite]

I don't really want to ruin a potentially good thread by turning it into a "Felton v. teh world" debate.

I'm gonna get to working on the copy and pasting. Hollinger sells himself in his writing, he's fantastically entertaining.

[SWedd523]

You guys know about sample size, right? Wright doesn't even appear on the list of pfs. There are always guys that shoot up the overall list because of awesome per minute stats, Wright is one of them. They're usually pfs because they are exceptionally skilled but physically flawed players or hustle guys that are super efficient.
Exactly why I think Hollinger should do something to change that. Nobody wants to see a list with players that get ~15 min a game. Take them off and compile a real list with comparable players.

Wasn't Nathan Jawai an example of that last year with like a 32 PER for a few weeks? Maybe I'm wrong

[Walt Cronkite]

In an attempt to preemptively quell the "WATCH TEH GAMES NERD" comments from the team preview thread, here's Holly's player by player profile

2008-09 season: An early season trade to Charlotte thrust Bell into a different offensive role on a scoring-starved Bobcats team, a role in which he couldn't just play off the ball and launch catch-and-shoot 3s. Consequently, he shot a lot more 2s and handled the ball much more, but he ended up with a virtually identical PER and pretty similar numbers across the board. He remains a dangerous 3-point shooter who shredded the nets for 42.1 percent on 3s and 43.0 percent on long 2s, and he still never shoots in the basket area (only 9.2 percent of his attempts) or gets to the line.

Bell also has evolved into one of the league's most right-dominant players, shooting a league-leading 41.5 percent of his 2s from the right side after nearly finishing first a year earlier. Although his right-left differential wasn't as great as T.J. Ford's (see comment), he had the biggest chunk on the right.

Scouting report: While many regard Bell as one of the game's best defensive shooting guards, his performance didn't live up to his reputation last season. The Bobcats defended better with him on the court than off it, but he was the only true shooting guard on the roster after the trade so that isn't really saying much. He didn't seem to pack the same intensity chasing players through screens or challenging shots, and he's clearly lost some athleticism.

Offensively, Bell is a straight jump shooter. He'll pop off one dribble on a pick-and-roll going to his right, but mostly he's a catch-and-shoot guy who hangs out on the weak side waiting for his chances. While he's a low-mistake player, his greatest use is helping to space the floor for others.

2009-10 outlook: Bell is slated to start at shooting guard, but the Bobcats could really use an upgrade here. Bell is a marginal offensive player despite his 3-point shooting because he creates so few shots for himself and others, and his defense began to slip last season. At 33 we shouldn't expect a U-turn, but a cut in minutes to the 15-20 range might do wonders for his energy level.

Alas, that would require somebody else capable of playing those minutes, and rookie Gerald Henderson is the only candidate in sight. As a result, Bell will probably play another 30 minutes a game this season, shoot 40 percent on 3s and barely squeak into double figures in scoring.

[Walt Cronkite]

Exactly why I think Hollinger should do something to change that. Nobody wants to see a list with players that get ~15 min a game. Take them off and compile a real list with comparable players.

Wasn't Nathan Jawai an example of that last year with like a 32 PER for a few weeks? Maybe I'm wrong

The actual list once the season starts will have a qualification to exclude those players, it always does. I'm not sure why B. Wright appears on the overall list and not the pf sorted one. If you're suggesting that PER should be fundamentally altered though, then I fully disagree with that.

[Walt Cronkite]

2008-09 season: I'm not sure Wallace realized that the entire benefit of wearing a mouthpiece disappears if it's not actually in the mouth; he routinely ran around the court with it dangling precipitously over his lower lip. He wears it for a fairly serious reason -- to help prevent another concussion -- and thankfully he was able to avoid that fate, aided by a move back to small forward that spared him some added pounding.

Unfortunately, he wasn't able to avoid Andrew Bynum on Jan. 28, and that hit left him with a partially collapsed lung and caused him to miss seven games. That's about the synopsis of Wallace's career -- he flies up and down the court until he crashes into something, and when that happens he inevitably gets the worst of it. Wallace played 71 games last season and hasn't played more than 72 in any of his eight pro seasons.

When he played, he changed up his shot mix and played a much more complete game, improving his PER despite losing three points off his 40-minute scoring average. Wallace wisely ditched the 3-point attempts that were dragging down his percentages a year earlier, taking half as many, and scaled down the long 2s even more dramatically -- they went from 21.6 percent of his shots to just 9.7 percent.

Instead he became almost a pure inside scorer, slashing to the basket and running in transition. As a result, he finished second among small forwards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt and third in true shooting percentage. Wallace added a monstrous year on the boards, with a 20.2 defensive rebound rate that led all small forwards, and his usual ball-hawking led to the fourth-best rate of steals at his position. It wasn't quite an All-Star season, but it wasn't far off, and if not for the Bobcats' near-total invisibility on the national radar, it would have earned him much more attention.

Scouting report: Wallace is a tremendous athlete who leaps and dunks with the best of them. His talent becomes particularly evident in transition situations in which he flies in for finishes off the wing, but he's also a fantastic rebounder and a strong driver in half court. On the flip side, he launches an awkward jumper from the left side of his body even though he's right-handed, and although he's a good foul shooter, he has never shot consistently from the perimeter.

When Wallace puts the ball on the floor, he demonstrates no in-between game at all, but he's quick enough to get to the rim from either side. Despite a thin build, he murders smaller wings on post-ups when he gets a mismatch and passes well out of the block, though not particularly well from other places.

Wallace is superb in the passing lanes and a spectacular shot-blocker, but he can get caught ball-watching on the weak side and lose track of his man. He's also beatable in isolations despite his athleticism, as he'll leave his feet on shot fakes and as big, physical forwards can overpower him.

2009-10 outlook: Wallace is only 27, which is hard to believe given how long he's been around, so he should have a few good years left in him. I doubt he can improve much on last season's numbers, but the biggest one the Bobcats will be watching is the games column. If he plays at least 70 again and matches last season's numbers, and the Bobcats stay at or near .500, it might be enough to put him over the top for a first-ever All-Star appearance. If so it would provide some national attention for one of the game's most unappreciated stars, but don't count on it. The more probable scenario is that he'll play 65 games with averages of 17 and 7.

[Walt Cronkite]

2008-09 season: Diaw has always been an extreme pass-first guy, but the trade to Charlotte left him with hardly anybody worth passing to so he shot more instead. It was a healthy bargain, as Diaw averaged a career-best 15.6 points per 40 minutes and, to everyone's surprise, hit 41.4 percent of his 3s while taking more than two a game.

Diaw's struggles at the line continued (68.7 percent), but his newfound long-range stroke helped him finish 21st among power forwards in true shooting percentage and more than offset a reduction in assists. Even so, Diaw ranked seventh at his position in pure point rating, but that's a far cry from a year earlier when he led all frontcourt players in that category. Although he played virtually all his minutes up front, Diaw was useless on the boards, with a pathetic 9.6 rebound rate that ranked 56th out of 65 power forwards.

Scouting report: Diaw is one of the most unique players in the league, a 6-foot-8 forward who handles the ball like a point guard, sees the floor and is unselfish to a fault. He's far too passive and coaches constantly cajole him to shoot more frequently, but he's retained a bad habit of passing up easy shots to force passes. Though a poor long-range shooter until last season, Diaw has always shot decently from midrange and hit 42.0 percent of his long 2s last year, his fifth straight year at 42 percent or better.

Diaw doesn't rebound or block many shots but is an excellent frontcourt defender. Because he moves so well, he's money in pick-and-roll coverage, plus he has enough size and toughness to defend most 4s on the block. He also can defend 3s on the wing, where his 6-8 frame becomes a real asset, and his unselfish spirit is helpful on D as he's a willing team defender. Both Phoenix (by 4.5 points per 100 possessions) and Charlotte (by 2.5 points) defended better with him on the court than off it, and this trend has been ongoing for several years now.

2009-10 outlook: Diaw will start at power forward and at age 27 could be poised for a career year, especially if his 3-point shooting numbers from last season carry over for another campaign. "Career year" in this case would be a PER and a scoring average both in the 15-16 range and perhaps some mentions for second-team All-Defense. However, Diaw filled a gaping hole in the Charlotte frontcourt a year ago, and looking ahead his versatility makes him a more important player than his numbers imply.

[teej]

A lot depends on this season. He's a really great defender and I love his passion for the game, but he kills us with his inability to shoot. I've gone on record over this summer stating that Felton could be the starting point guard on a championship team because of his poise and defense, but he'd have to be the fifth option on offense... maaaybe fourth if his shooting improves with time. But yea, I'd say he's a pretty average player that you optimally want coming off of the bench.

Starting Point Guards in the NBA by team.

Southeast
Atlanta Hawks: Mike Bibby
Charlotte: Ray Felton
Miami Heat: Mario Chalmers
Orlando Magic: Jameer Nelson
Washington Wizards: Gilbert Arenas


Central
Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose
Cleveland Cavs: Mo Williams
Detroit Pistons: Rodney Stuckey
Indiana Pacers: T.J. Ford
Milkwaukee Bucks: Luke Ridnour

Atlantic
Boston Celtics: Rajon Rondo
New Jersey Nets; Devin Harris
New York Knicks: Chris Duhon
Philadelphia 76ers: Lou Williams
Toronto Raptors: Jose Calderon

Pacific
GSW: Monta Ellis
LA Clippers: Baron Davis
LA Lakers: Derek Fisher
Phoenix Suns: Steve Nash
Sacramento Kings: Beno Udrih

Southwest
Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd
Houston Rockets: Aaron Brooks
Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley
New Orleans Hornets: Chris Paul
San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker

Northwest
Denver Nuggets: Chauncey Billups
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonny Flynn
OKC Thunder: Russell Westbrook
Portland Trail Blazers: Andre Miller
Utah Jazz: Deron Williams

In bold are the teams I think Ray could be traded to and start for today. That's 15, not counting Charlotte.

Third Guard?

[Walt Cronkite]

2008-09 season: Plagued by ankle problems, Chandler struggled through a disappointing season, losing 2.4 points and rebounds off his 40-minute average and shedding 58 points from his shooting percentage. He dressed for only 45 games and limped through a miserable postseason when he clearly shouldn't have been playing. He nearly went to Oklahoma City in a midseason trade but the Thunder deep-sixed it because of concerns over a different injury, to his toe.

In his diminished state, Chandler remained effective on the offensive board. He ranked eighth among centers in offensive rebound rate and converted enough putbacks to shoot a strong 56.5 percent for the season. However, his turnover rate was again massive. Perhaps worst of all, he couldn't make the same impact at the defensive end. He didn't have the mobility to defend pick-and-rolls and couldn't maneuver quickly into help positions, a decline best illustrated by his taking just three offensive fouls after drawing 13 a year earlier.

Scouting report: Because he's active and stands 7-foot-1, Chandler is a huge target around the basket who expertly converts lobs into dunks and, when healthy, dominates the glass at both ends. He runs the floor well but has a low skill level in the half court. He rarely opts to shoot jumpers and handles the ball poorly, plus he doesn't have the bulk to get deep post position. Mostly he subsists on feeds and putbacks as a fifth option.

At the defensive end, his activity is a major bonus. His length allows him to challenge shots without winding up for a big leap, and he's a good, dogged post defender despite lacking the bulk to deny position. When his wheels are working, Chandler runs and rotates well, too, so he handles pick-and-roll situations well.

2009-10 outlook: New Orleans traded Chandler to Charlotte for Emeka Okafor in a puzzling deal by the Bobcats that will likely cost Chandler a few buckets from all the alley-oops he converted from Chris Paul. Instead he's going to one of the league's worst offensive teams, so he won't get as many gimmes when defenses focus on the other guys.

If healthy, Chandler can make a major impact with his defense and rebounding. He ranks among the best rebounders in basketball and could average a dozen a game. Adding ten points and 60 percent shooting to that would constitute a successful season. However, the other part of the equation is how often the ankle and toe problems allow him to produce at that level. If Charlotte gets 70 quality games out of him, it should be pleased.

[Walt Cronkite]

Starting Point Guards in the NBA by team.

Southeast
Atlanta Hawks: Mike Bibby
Charlotte: Ray Felton
Miami Heat: Mario Chalmers
Orlando Magic: Jameer Nelson
Washington Wizards: Gilbert Arenas


Central
Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose
Cleveland Cavs: Mo Williams
Detroit Pistons: Rodney Stuckey
Indiana Pacers: T.J. Ford
Milkwaukee Bucks: Luke Ridnour

Atlantic
Boston Celtics: Rajon Rondo
New Jersey Nets; Devin Harris
New York Knicks: Chris Duhon
Philadelphia 76ers: Lou Williams
Toronto Raptors: Jose Calderon

Pacific
GSW: Monta Ellis
LA Clippers: Baron Davis
LA Lakers: Derek Fisher
Phoenix Suns: Steve Nash
Sacramento Kings: Beno Udrih

Southwest
Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd
Houston Rockets: Aaron Brooks
Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley
New Orleans Hornets: Chris Paul
San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker

Northwest
Denver Nuggets: Chauncey Billups
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonny Flynn
OKC Thunder: Russell Westbrook
Portland Trail Blazers: Andre Miller
Utah Jazz: Deron Williams

In bold are the teams I think Ray could be traded to and start for today. That's 15, not counting Charlotte.

Third Guard?

Those guys are fourth/fifth option types as well. What successful team did you list besides LA and Dallas? Ray would be DREADFUL in the triangle offense, so that's a moot point. He would probably be good in Dallas though, like a smaller, worse finishing, but less frail Devin Harris.

[teej]

2009-10 outlook: New Orleans traded Chandler to Charlotte for Emeka Okafor in a puzzling deal by the Bobcats that will likely cost Chandler a few buckets from all the alley-oops he converted from Chris Paul. Instead he's going to one of the league's worst offensive teams, so he won't get as many gimmes when defenses focus on the other guys.

IMO, this shows that Hollinger doesn't know that much about the 'Cats...but that may just be me.

And as for the PGs, what about Miami, Philly, and Portland? Houston also made the playoffs, and Detroit is set to be better.

And I might even put him over Mo Williams. Also, these guys can't all be third guards, or the league has to draft 10 PGs to start every year...

[ohara831]

3rd guard=1st guard off of the bench..

Yeah Spectre, I think you misread that statement. I think he was saying he'd be the first Guard off the bench on a good team, able to play either the PG or SG if needed.

[Walt Cronkite]

2008-09 season: The Bobcats foolishly passed on Brook Lopez in the draft, but Augustin at least helped salvage the pick with a solid rookie year in which he showed himself to be an instant natural at the point. He's a talented shooter, making 43.9 percent of his 3-pointers and 89.3 percent from the line while finishing eighth among point guards in true shooting percentage. He also created enough shots to average 17.8 points per 40 minutes on a slow-paced team.

Despite solid numbers overall, his lack of assists is troubling. Augustin looked the part of a penetrating, dishing point guard, but at the end of the day he finished only 52nd out of 69 point guards in assist ratio. He racked up much better assist numbers in college, so this came as a surprise. Additionally, Augustin proved useless on the glass even by point guard standards, ranking fourth from the bottom, and for a quick guard his ranking 66th in steals per minute was an unpleasant surprise.

Scouting report: Augustin is a tiny guard who excels in two areas. First, he's an outstanding spot-up 3-point shooter on the weak side, so he can occupy defenders when he's playing off the ball. Second, he's a slick penetrator on the pick-and-roll who uses his quickness to get to the basket. Augustin had trouble finishing once he got there, making only 41.9 percent of his inside shots -- the second-worst mark of any player with at least 200 attempts. This is an example of where looking to dish instead of to score will greatly further his career prospects.

Defensively, Augustin's size is a problem because he's too short to challenge shots effectively. It's his major limitation as a player going forward. He needs to use his quickness to pester opponents more, and it would help if he'd pressure the ball to make opposing point guards work to get the ball up court.

2009-10 outlook: Augustin seems ready to start, especially since the Bobcats are badly in need of an offensive upgrade and his year-to-year improvement is their best hope for getting one. His defensive shortcomings create a problem, but the hope is that he'll create more shots for his frontcourt and less for himself this coming season.

Nonetheless, for a 21-year-old rookie point guard to come in and play as well as he did right away is a very positive development. His combination of quickness and shooting ability could make him a dangerous offensive player in the very near future.

[teej]

2008-09 season: The Bobcats foolishly passed on Brook Lopez in the draft...
Despite solid numbers overall, his lack of assists is troubling. Augustin looked the part of a penetrating, dishing point guard, but at the end of the day he finished only 52nd out of 69 point guards in assist ratio.

Once again, proving he didn't watch the team.

Swedd can tell you why we shouldn't have drafted Lopez. He sure convinced me.

[Walt Cronkite]

IMO, this shows that Hollinger doesn't know that much about the 'Cats...but that may just be me.

And as for the PGs, what about Miami, Philly, and Portland? Houston also made the playoffs, and Detroit is set to be better.

And I might even put him over Mo Williams. Also, these guys can't all be third guards, or the league has to draft 10 PGs to start every year...

WTF are you talking about? We are awful on offense and Chandler was playing with one of the best PGs in the league surrounded by players that could hit shots.

I don't really like Chalmers, don't think Lou Williams is a PG and Andre Miller is going to hit the wall sooner than later. Andre Miller is basically best case scenario for Felton at this point, but whatever. I don't understand why Portland signed him to play next to Roy, I definitely don't think Felton would've helped them.

I actually like Brooks more than Felton, but don't want to admit that on this board for fear of being flamed and I haven't seen much of his game outside of the playoffs. I do not believe the Rodney Stuckey hype, but he at least has size to his advantage. Mo Williams is a good pairing with LeBron since he's a good shooter, Felts would be useless in the Cavs backcourt.

You understand 3rd guard, right? You have your starting PG, starting SG and then your third guard. Not third string PG, third guard.

[Walt Cronkite]

Once again, proving he didn't watch the team.

Swedd can tell you why we shouldn't have drafted Lopez. He sure convinced me.

I don't necessarily agree with that comment either, but it doesn't at all prove he didn't watch the team. I've noticed that you haven't made a single comment on the "Scouting Report" section...

[Walt Cronkite]

2008-09 season: After washing out in Indiana and Detroit a year earlier, Murray resurrected his career as a combo guard off the bench with the Hawks. With Atlanta only delving eight deep in the rotation, he was able to play 24.7 minutes a game, and his shoot-first tendencies weren't a distraction with a second unit that desperately needed another shot-creator.

Murray, in fact, was the Hawks' best player in terms of on-court vs. off-court impact. Atlanta outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 40 minutes with him on the floor, according to 82games.com, which was one of the best rates in the league.
A big reason was because he made shots -- something he'd struggled to accomplish at every other stop in his career. Murray's 54.3 TS% marked the first time he'd ever cleared 50, which is amazing given how often he shoots. He was 56th among 65 shooting guards in pure point rating, even though he often played the point, so clearly passing and distributing are not his forte. But if he makes shots he has value, because he's quite good at creating them.

Scouting report: A 6-3 guard with a nose for the basket, Murray sees nothing but the goal when he puts the ball on the floor and sometimes dribbles himself into trouble as a result. However, he usually makes a quick move for a shot, so it's not as if he's pounding away the shot clock the way some shoot-first guards do.

His quickness, strength and leaping ability all are above average, though none are exceptional, making him very difficult to handle on the drive -- he shot 56.9 percent in the immediate basket area and supplemented it with a high free throw rate. While Murray shot fairly well on 3s last season, he's a mediocre shooter (30.2 percent on 3s for his career, 72.4 percent from the line) and that was almost certainly a fluke.

Defensively, Murray did a good job against most 2s despite giving up inches, and has the size and quickness to keep a good chunk of the league's 1s at bay as well. He's a poor rebounder and fouls a lot but is active in passing lanes and ranked 10th among shooting guards in steals per minute.

2009-10 outlook: Murray signed a one-year deal with Charlotte for $1.9 million after the market for his services proved surprisingly slim. That's probably because teams suspected he might have had a fluke year, and they might be right. Murray was 29 last year and hadn't shot nearly as well in his other NBA stops; although his season technically didn't qualify as a Fluke Rule season, a lot of the same principles apply.
Even if he doesn't maintain last year's shooting percentage, however, he'll be of some use to the Bobcats. Charlotte had arguably the league's most anemic second unit before signing Murray so if he can create a bunch of shots, he'll be useful even if he makes only a smattering of them.

[Walt Cronkite]

2008-09 season: The Quickest Admission of a Horrible Mistake Award for 2009 goes to the Mavericks, who signed Diop to a five-year deal for the full midlevel and then sent him to Charlotte for Matt Carroll halfway though his first season. The 7-foot wide body submitted a train wreck of a season offensively, with the league's second-worst true shooting percentage, and it would have been worse had his teammates not played keep away from him. Diop's 9.8 usage rate ranked 60th out of 67 centers, his 43.3 percent shooting mark placed 65th, and his 33.3 percent mark from the line claimed dead last.

Diop's biggest offensive attribute was his ability to pull down second shots, as he ranked 16th in offensive rebound rate. He also unloaded the ball well enough to finish in the top half of centers in pure point rating. His more compelling value, however, was placing in the top third of centers in both blocks and steals per minute.

Scouting report: Even with his significant offensive shortcomings, Diop delivers some value as a backup 5 because he defends so well. His size makes him a top-notch low-post defender, but he's also surprisingly nimble and defends the pick-and-roll very well. While he doesn't block huge numbers of shots, he stays on the floor, maintains his position and rebounds well.

Diop's offensive skills, however, are rudimentary at best. Despite his size and strength, he has no post game whatsoever and can't shoot at all away from the rim. Even at the basket he has bad hands and struggles to control the ball and convert passes into dunks.

2009-10 outlook: Diop's role seems entrenched for the next four seasons regardless of what uniform he's wearing -- he's going to play about 12 minutes a night off the bench as a backup center, a role in which he'll defend, rebound and have specific instructions not to shoot unless he's wide open under the basket. He's not worth the midlevel exception or anywhere near it, but he'll be effective in that limited role.

[teej]

WTF are you talking about? We are awful on offense and Chandler was playing with one of the best PGs in the league surrounded by players that could hit shots.

Do you understand that Larry Brown is our coach? And that as much as you love Mek, he was hurting our team? Go look up 110 Old East posts for the numbers, but last year, we scored more than LB's Detroit Championship team. When they scored more the next year, they didn't win (although his impending departure may have had something to do with that).

Tyson fits better on this team, because he is a true center. Mek scored, yes, but not in a way that consistently helped. He's too concerned about being around 20 years to win anything. He's an arrogant Juwan Howard.


I don't really like Chalmers, don't think Lou Williams is a PG and Andre Miller is going to hit the wall sooner than later. Andre Miller is basically best case scenario for Felton at this point, but whatever. I don't understand why Portland signed him to play next to Roy, I definitely don't think Felton would've helped them.

I actually like Brooks more than Felton, but don't want to admit that on this board for fear of being flamed and I haven't seen much of his game outside of the playoffs. I do not believe the Rodney Stuckey hype, but he at least has size to his advantage. Mo Williams is a good pairing with LeBron since he's a good shooter, Felts would be useless in the Cavs backcourt.

You understand 3rd guard, right? You have your starting PG, starting SG and then your third guard. Not third string PG, third guard.

Yes, I understand 3rd guard. I think Felton is better than that. I think he could change his game to work with new teammates, and he could be the starter on a championship team. I haven't seen enough of Brooks and until then, Felton gets the nod for me.

[Walt Cronkite]

2008-09 season: It's not totally clear why Radmanovic started for the Lakers in 2008, but once Trevor Ariza emerged, Radmanovic had no chance of continuing in that role. L.A. dumped his salary on the Bobcats and he filled their need a little too literally -- he delivered replacement-level production at a spot where they desperately needed a replacement. He wasn't good by any stretch, sporting the worst turnover rate at his position, but compared to Matt Carroll and Adam Morrison, he was a godsend.

The most puzzling part of Radmanovic's season is the profusion of turnovers. He's a catch-and-shoot forward who took more than half his shots from beyond the arc -- that's usually a formula for a microscopic turnover rate, but Radmanovic was so bad when he handled the ball that he still rated the worst at his position. He shot well on 3s (40.0 percent), but his true shooting percentage was ordinary because he shot only 33.0 percent on long 2s and rarely got to the line.

Scouting report: Radmanovic is 6-foot-10 and a deadly long-range shooter when left open. He's also reasonably quick and a much better wing defender than people realize -- I've been slow to come around on this myself, but his numbers from the past few seasons and some new advanced data from the folks at Synergy Sports make the conclusion inescapable. He still can't defend bigs to save his life, however, due to a lack of strength, so he has to guard 3s.

Unfortunately, Radmanovic offsets his strengths with a total inability to handle the ball, especially in the open court. He has no post game so his size is a non-factor at the offensive end -- basically, he might as well be 6-foot. For as well as he shoots off the catch, he's also a poor shooter off the dribble, and his iffy shot selection gets him into hot water with coaches.

2009-10 outlook: Radmanovic will probably be the Bobcats' primary backup at both forward spots once again, because they don't have anybody else qualified to fill the position. It's possible Gerald Henderson will cut into his minutes a bit, but the fact that starting small forward Gerald Wallace is so injury prone should more than make up for it. Additionally, Radmanovic should see plenty of time as a smallball 4, since that's another spot where the Bobcats lack depth.

Don't expect big numbers aside from the 3-point percentage, but last season's are probably close to the floor looking at his past history.

[teej]

I don't necessarily agree with that comment either, but it doesn't at all prove he didn't watch the team. I've noticed that you haven't made a single comment on the "Scouting Report" section...

Because the scouting report doesn't require watching or even knowing the team. I haven't learned anything from the scouting report.

[Walt Cronkite]

Do you understand that Larry Brown is our coach? And that as much as you love Mek, he was hurting our team? Go look up 110 Old East posts for the numbers, but last year, we scored more than LB's Detroit Championship team. When they scored more the next year, they didn't win (although his impending departure may have had something to do with that).

Tyson fits better on this team, because he is a true center. Mek scored, yes, but not in a way that consistently helped. He's too concerned about being around 20 years to win anything. He's an arrogant Juwan Howard.



Yes, I understand 3rd guard. I think Felton is better than that. I think he could change his game to work with new teammates, and he could be the starter on a championship team. I haven't seen enough of Brooks and until then, Felton gets the nod for me.

What does anything you just wrote have to do with what you quoted? The quote was about Chandler and how he was used in NO and how he's in a much different situation here. He's moved to a team with no go to player and with limited shooting options, so he's bound to not get as many "gimmies"... he's going to have a guy on him a lot more often than when he was in NO because defenders helped on Paul, doubled West and had to respect the Hornets zone busters. Here, defenses want Felton to shoot, maybe will double Boris and only have to play honest on Bell, DJ and Radman.

I know LB is our coach, I know we're a defensive minded team. I'll look for these old posts. By "scored more" do you mean ppg or something else? I guess I'll find out eventually, just curious. Let's not make this an Okafor vs. Chandler debate, right now... I just don't understand how you saw a part of the Chandler profile and thought it was proof that Hollinger knows nothing about the Bobcats. We're we actually one of the better offensive teams last season and I'm just on crazy pills?

re:3rd guard-- maybe reread what I wrote about Felton, especially the part where I wrote that he "...could be the starting point guard on a championship team because of his poise and defense..."

[Walt Cronkite]

Because the scouting report doesn't require watching or even knowing the team. I haven't learned anything from the scouting report.

Wow, you knew Raja was the 2nd most right dominant player in the league?

[Walt Cronkite]

2008-09 season: Despite continually falling out of favor due to his defensive shortcomings, Mohammed had been an effective and underrated player his entire career … until last season. Last year he was just bad. Mohammed shot 40.6 percent from the floor while seeing his rebound rate tank, eliminating the main benefit of having him on the court. Not surprisingly, he didn't stay out there for long -- he played in just 39 games and averaged a mere 8.7 minutes per contest. So woeful was Mohammed that veteran retread Juwan Howard surpassed him in the rotation.

Scouting report: Mohammed is an intelligent player with good instincts on the boards and an unorthodox but effective short-range jumper from behind his head. He's undersized for a center at 6-foot-9 and too slow to play power forward, which makes him a bit of a match-up dilemma. Additionally, he doesn't move well around the basket and is a lousy pick-and-roll defender, so coaches have soured on him at several stops.

2009-10 outlook: Mohammed turned 32 last year and he's never been in the greatest of shape; it appears the latter weakness may be catching up with him. However, he can defend post players reasonably well and provide six fouls off the pine. Plus, his terrible shooting percentage from last season is probably an outlier given the scarcity of minutes. He's useful as a fifth big man at worst, and with two years and $13 million left on his deal, he hasn't run out of chances just yet.

[Walt Cronkite]

2008-09 season: A late-season call-up from the D-League, Jefferson appeared in six games for Charlotte and held his own. Of more telling significance is that he's a three-year veteran of the NBDL and built up a 115-game résumé at that level. He wasn't exactly dominating: His D-League PER barely reached above the league average all three seasons, and he made only 31.3 percent of his 3s. He gets to the line, however, and rebounds well for a guard.

Scouting report: A big point guard at 6-foot-5, Jefferson has a good rep as a defender and distributor and those attributes should help him stay in the league. He can play both guard spots but as a pro he's likely to play the point, because he doesn't shoot well enough to play the wing.

2009-10 outlook: Jefferson's deal isn't fully guaranteed so he'll have to earn his way onto the Bobcats' roster, but he has a good shot at sticking. Charlotte needs the help in the backcourt, and Larry Brown likes role players who defend.

[Walt Cronkite]

2008-09 season: The Bobcats used a first-round pick on Ajinca knowing he'd be a project, and let's just say he lived up to expectations. Four early season starts by Ajinca horrified the Bobcats enough to banish him to the D-League for 11 games, playing him only 182 minutes with the parent club.

Ajinca shot the ball a lot when he played, perhaps because opponents enthusiastically encouraged such behavior -- nearly half his shots were long 2s and he made only 13-of-33. Ajinca drew some fouls near the basket but was surprisingly ordinary in the two areas -- blocks and rebounds -- in which a long-armed 7-footer should make an impact.

Ajinca rebounded better in the D-League and actually played decently, though with an unusually high turnover rate. He's only 21 and has very little game experience, so that little stint offers some encouragement.

Scouting report: Take one look at Ajinca and you'll immediately recognize why Charlotte used a first-round pick on him despite scant evidence he can actually play basketball. Scouts like to us the term "long" to describe a player with a lengthy reach, and by this standard Ajinca is longer than the lines at Disney World.

Unfortunately, he combines that length with limited skill. He doesn't have the strength to post up and displays poor instincts around the basket. Although he can shoot somewhat from outside and makes foul shots (76.4 percent combined D-League and NBA), he's still learning the game and doesn't know where his shots are coming from.

As a defensive prospect, Ajinca's length and ability to run the floor leave scouts drooling, but this is another area where he's just scratching the surface of his potential and may never get underground. He'll need to build lower-body strength and improve his instincts to succeed at the pro level.

2009-10 outlook: Ajinca will be the tallest person in the state of Maine this winter, as he's likely headed to Charlotte's D-League affiliate in Portland for added seasoning. It's important he gets the minutes up there if he's not going to play for the parent team this season, since this is his last year of eligibility. He likely won't play for the Bobcats in the first half of the season anyway, but if he shows some strides in the minors, he may bolster the frontcourt rotation later on.

[Walt Cronkite]

Hendo-
2009-10 outlook: A tough defensive guard who seems destined to be a contributor for several years but never a star, Henderson is a great fit in Charlotte. The Bobcats need a defensive stopper to give aging Raja Bell some help, and they could use some energy and athleticism off the bench. He'll provide solid helpings of both.

What will hold him back is his offense, especially his outside shooting. Henderson didn't show great range or accuracy from outside at Duke and didn't amaze with his passing skill, either. He's a pure complementary player and if he can develop a reasonable jump shot, he'll be a starter for a long time, but that's about the height of the ceiling here.


Derrick Brown-
2009-10 outlook: Brown is an interesting prospect because he's an occasionally spectacular finisher who also shot well on 3s in his final two years in college. He has the size to be a floor-spacing 4 or a big 3 as a pro, but the puzzling part is why he didn't produce more in college. Scouts feel he coasted a lot, and he was unable get his own shot. If he's any good, Brown will get plenty of chances to play, and if he's not he might anyway since the Bobcats don't have much depth at the 3 and 4 positions.

[teej]

Wow, you knew Raja was the 2nd most right dominant player in the league?

I knew he was very much a right-oriented player. Not that specific stat, but I knew he was limited.

But if you want to corner me, yes, I learned ONE thing.

And notice the writeup on Nazzy has no mention of his brutal offseason reginmen to get back in shape...

[spectre]

Thanks for the clarification (guess that makes ME a moron? :g:).

I agree with the 3rd guard on a championship team and I agree with the caveat that he could start on a contender if he has around 3 offensive guys ahead of him in the pecking order.

I don't agree that anyone on this roster is our "future". I think both our PGs still have potential (DJ moreso than Felton probably)...but I'd trade 'em both for Tony Parker and probably Devin Harris. Chauncey is borderline but only because of his age (lean toward doing it).

BTW...this thread's been great! :p

[Walt Cronkite]

I knew he was very much a right-oriented player. Not that specific stat, but I knew he was limited.

But if you want to corner me, yes, I learned ONE thing.

And notice the writeup on Nazzy has no mention of his brutal offseason reginmen to get back in shape...

I just picked the first example I thought of, wasn't trying to corner you. But I guess you knew everything else, so I'll be sure not to hook you up with any insider information since it was a total waste of my time. I made the original scouting report comment because you were picking totally irrelevant quotes and trying to use them as ammo in your argument about how Hollinger doesn't watch the games/doesn't follow teams/doesn't analyze his numbers. The profiles were rife with qualifiers, analysis and predictions.

Has anyone besides Bonnell and Nazr himself mentioned how he's *gasp* worked hard during the offseason? Why does it matter if it's in the profile or not, you already knew it, didn't you? He has to write, what ~450 profiles, what a shame he left out some comment a player made about actually doing offseason conditioning for a change. If you notice, he did mention that Naz isn't typically in very good shape. I'm sure if Mohammed comes out and is much improved and it somehow is relevant to our success that he'll mention in, he always does.

[Walt Cronkite]

BTW...this thread's been great! :p

I'm trying to make sure my fingers are in midseason form by the tip off of game one this year.

[teej]

I just picked the first example I thought of, wasn't trying to corner you. But I guess you knew everything else, so I'll be sure not to hook you up with any insider information since it was a total waste of my time. I made the original scouting report comment because you were picking totally irrelevant quotes and trying to use them as ammo in your argument about how Hollinger doesn't watch the games/doesn't follow teams/doesn't analyze his numbers. The profiles were rife with qualifiers, analysis and predictions.

It wasn't a waste of your time, as I'm sure some here are new to the 'Cats and could learn a thing or two. Or if only for Spectre's entertainment. :facepalm:

I'm not saying he doesn't watch games/follow teams/analyze numbers. What I AM saying is that he doesn't watch CHARLOTTE BOBCATS games, follow OUR team, or analyze the numbers in a way that can help a team win.


Has anyone besides Bonnell and Nazr himself mentioned how he's *gasp* worked hard during the offseason? Why does it matter if it's in the profile or not, you already knew it, didn't you? He has to write, what ~450 profiles, what a shame he left out some comment a player made about actually doing offseason conditioning for a change. If you notice, he did mention that Naz isn't typically in very good shape. I'm sure if Mohammed comes out and is much improved and it somehow is relevant to our success that he'll mention in, he always does.

Pretty much everyone around Nazzy has noted how hard he's worked and how much he's changed himself over the offseason, from LB to the other beat reporters to the Bobcats bloggers.

And um, my point was he wouldn't have made that comment if he had paid any attention at all to Naz since the season picked back up again...

[ND22]

I honestly hope Nazr can get into the rotation this year. From what I've read Nazr seems very determined to make an impact this year and to help this team so I hope he can come through.

[Ampsportsduo]

First off, thanks Walt for all the effort.

I'm not sure why you're so protective of Hollinger's work, the "watch the games, geek" criticism are not without factual basis it's just that they've been hashed and re-hashed. Perhaps his failed attempt at humor suggesting Steve Kerr and the Suns should've rocked a ski mask when dealing for JRich, or the fact that he accused the Bobcats organization of lacking spine by allowing the evil dictator Larry Brown demand trades. Maybe it was when Brett from QCH illustrated why the Chandler trade could be a great deal using Hollinger's own stats while Hollinger shredded it. Instead of using these arguments to argue my point, I will use lines from only these rankings.

From the original trade article: "Bell had been visibly declining over the past two seasons and is probably better suited to a bench role at this point in his career."

From this year's projection: "his (Bell's) defense began to slip last season."

So, has it been a three year decline or just last year? Perhaps a bit nitpicky, but wait there's more.


A cut in minutes to the 15-20 range might do wonders for his energy level. Alas, that would require somebody else capable of playing those minutes, and rookie Gerald Henderson is the only candidate in sight.

Flip Murray (whom he lauds) is not going to be a part of this team? Murray was able to get good looks in Atlanta and with this team's ball movement should be able to get them here as well.


"New Orleans traded Chandler to Charlotte for Emeka Okafor in a puzzling deal by the Bobcats that will likely cost Chandler a few buckets from all the alley-oops he converted from Chris Paul."

Perhaps no projection proved to me how little he watches of the Bobcats as TC's. The alley-oops Paul threw to him are largely not difficult passes. Far more PGs can throw those passes than guys can finish them with the authority of TC. With EO being so robotic, playing below the rim and his hands being brick-like, opponents big men were free to "sell out" to block the penetrator. With Chandler, big men will now have to hesitate to sell out (potentially to the benefit of both Ray's and DJ's FG%) or risk being dunked on.


he's going to one of the league's worst offensive teams, so he won't get as many gimmes when defenses focus on the other guys.

This illustrates a complete lack of understanding of how this team works. The idea of ball movement is difficult to quantify and he's apparently given up. And let's take a look at "one of the league's worst offensive teams" statement. To start the season, the Cats were THE worst offensive team in the league. They failed to score 85 points in 8 of their first 12, and averaged 89.8 points per game prior to the trade with Phoenix. After the trade, they averaged 95.1 points per game, while playing at the slowest pace in the league. Averaging 95.1 ppg puts them just below... wait for it... the Hornets. Playing a slower pace does not make a team a terrible offensive team and only Utah had a higher percentage of assisted baskets last season. That's representative of a good offensive team, not one of the league's worst. The Grizzlies were the league's worst by far and the Cats are so far miles ahead of them it's silly.


Augustin ... showed himself to be an instant natural at the point...

Despite solid numbers overall, his lack of assists is troubling. Augustin looked the part of a penetrating, dishing point guard, but at the end of the day he finished only 52nd out of 69 point guards in assist ratio.

Natural point guard and lack of assists are contrary definitions in my book. As for his driving and dishing, he routinely over-penetrated and got caught up with no one to pass to. Love DJ, but this is my primary area of concern I hope they've addressed.

Reading these projections produces some interesting numbers, but largely I get the feeling that I am reading someone who looks at numbers far more than they watch games. That's not an issue, except that Hollinger likes to "color" his numbers with assertions that too often aren't accurate.

Thanks again for doing the work to post. I did enjoy them, flawed as they are (as we all are).

[teej]

Flip Murray (whom he lauds) is not going to be a part of this team? Murray was able to get good looks in Atlanta and with this team's ball movement should be able to get them here as well.

To be fair, I think he wrote this pre-Flip signing.

Other than that, excellent post. You made eloquent what my brain has been thinking all day.

[Ampsportsduo]

To be fair, I think he wrote this pre-Flip signing.

Other than that, excellent post. You made eloquent what my brain has been thinking all day.

He wrote a Flip for the Bobcats projection so I assumed they were all post, but thinking about it, surely he had to have 95% of these in the can before he was signed.

[spectre]

To start the season, the Cats were THE worst offensive team in the league. They failed to score 85 points in 8 of their first 12, and averaged 89.8 points per game prior to the trade with Phoenix. After the trade, they averaged 95.1 points per game, while playing at the slowest pace in the league. Averaging 95.1 ppg puts them just below... wait for it... the Hornets. Playing a slower pace does not make a team a terrible offensive team and only Utah had a higher percentage of assisted baskets last season. That's representative of a good offensive team, not one of the league's worst. The Grizzlies were the league's worst by far and the Cats are so far miles ahead of them it's silly.

THIS.

A .500 mark should be assumed from my POV. We did it with (as Hollinger noted) a pretty deplorable bench as DJ was injured. Now we have him healthy and the guys we've added are far and away better than what we had playing great ball.

I think we're going to surprise some people.

Well said Amp.

[Keetch]

I think Hollinger is pretty spot on actually. On paper, our team sucks. What wins we get are highly attributable to coaching IMO. I've been lurking here and pondering how you all can realistically see this team winning 40 games. Man, I don't see it.

[teej]

I think Hollinger is pretty spot on actually. On paper, our team sucks. What wins we get are highly attributable to coaching IMO. I've been lurking here and pondering how you all can realistically see this team winning 40 games. Man, I don't see it.

The team that was awful on the bench last year played .500 ball with a hurt Gerald, and a hurt Raja. With them back, TC instead of Mek so we finally have a true center, and Hendo, Flip, and UPS on the bench, plus Nazzy and Ajinca having had great camps, how can you not?

[Walt Cronkite]

Ampsportsduo--

I've just been a reader of Hollinger for years and a fan of advanced statistics for even longer. Too often (especially on realgm), helpful insight is lost in immature arguments between someone that understands the stats (including their limitation) and one that doesn't get them at all. I have a pretty high tolerance and typically ignore it since I've come to expect it. Like I said though, it was preemptive and I think without it the thread would so far be filled with people saying Hollinger is a moron for having Chandler so low and Okafor so high, or Bell so low, or Wright so high, or whatever. The stats are truly useless without context... the tragedy is that the contextual analysis typically exists, it's just been overlooked.

His comments on the Jrich trade are bad in hindsight. I don't know how things were around here, but the Realgm board was in an uproar. Not only did we think we traded away the best player in the deal, we had to include Dudley and a 2nd. It doesn't mean that it's true or that it should be repeated, but Larry has detractors from all of his stops that feel he has a detrimental affect on the roster when he is too closely involved. I've come around to think that the Chandler/Okafor swap is just that. Similarly valuable pieces with slight variations. Hopefully Chandler works out as good as as Raja and Diaw. Keep in mind, Hollinger makes one of those articles every time a trade happens...whatever.

I think your Raja point is really petty, but I think there is a difference between when an All-NBA defensive guard's defense is "visibly declining" and once it has actually "slipped". You can disagree. Moving on.

Again, this is definitely nit picking, I'm surprised you didn't mention that he left out a "the" in one of the profiles (I think it was Lex's). Flip was signed, what, 10 days ago? I guess he should've gone through each of the Bobcats profiles, since he obvious wrote Raja's before the signing. He has over 450 of these to write... is this really something to point out, specifically since he gave such a glowing report for Murray?

Lobs to Chandler counterpoint: Maybe teams will force Felton (especially) or DJ to beat them and they won't give up easy dunks to Chandler. The oops Paul threw weren't difficult, fine. Paul is still way more of a threat to hurt you than DJ or Ray. Anyway, I fully expect to see more oops to our center this year than last and I pray to the basketball gods that it has a positive affect on Felton and DJ's %s inside. You saw how many times Ray threw the ball out of bounds when he must've been setting up the invisible 15 footer we keep on the roster though, right? Maybe John caught a few of those lowlights as well... maybe?

Offensive ineptitude- Hollinger is referring to our really bad offensive efficiency. Offensive efficiency is points scored per 100 possessions we are 27th. New Orleans was 13th. Hollinger's point here is that with no go to guy like Paul and with less shooters than NO, teams are going to make Chandler get his points while almost always having someone in between him and the basket. As I wrote when Teej took exception to this, we have no Paul, Diaw will maybe draw as much attention as West, but defenders only have to play honest perimeter defense on DJ, Bell and Radman... this will make things difficult for Chandler. He still mentions that 70 games played will likely lead to good things as he's probably going to get ~12+ rebs and double digit points since 70+ games means he's healthy, but whatever, right?

DJ analysis complaint- I expected this one. Notice he didn't say "...showed himself to be an instant natural point guard", but "instant natural at the point." I'm sure you'll find this a technical quibble on my point, but that's fair based on what I've had to explain, right? The point is the area of the floor that is past half court in between the wings and the paint. A player can be a natural there, without exhibiting some of the qualities you'd want of of a true point guard. Jason Kidd is a natural point guard, Boris Diaw plays naturally in the point.

Good talk.

[teej]

but defenders only have to play honest perimeter defense on DJ, Bell and Radman... this will make things difficult for Chandler. He still mentions that 70 games played will likely lead to good things as he's probably going to get ~12+ rebs and double digit points since 70+ games means he's healthy, but whatever, right?

Flip, Diaw, and Hendo will also draw coverage on the perimeter.

And if TC is healthy, he will almost assuredly have better stats than Mek, who will be the smallest center in the West and will suffer trememndously for being a pussy.

[dnbman]

I think Hollinger is pretty spot on actually. On paper, our team sucks. What wins we get are highly attributable to coaching IMO. I've been lurking here and pondering how you all can realistically see this team winning 40 games. Man, I don't see it.

It's the PF position, isn't it?

ADMIT IT!!!!

I don't know. I see a lot of talent and I'm very excited. However, we've still got shaky spots this year, though not as bad as last.

A few things are going to have to go in our favor:

1. Few to no injuries (self explanatory)
2. A few diamonds in the rough emerge this year
3. Felton raises his level of play and really learns to orchestrate an offense.
4. We get a another 4 somewhere who can give us 10-15 minutes of rugged play.

If we do that, 40 is possible.

I think we get into the high 30s with a real shot at the 8th spot.

[dav7z]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/rankings?pos=1

This was from Insider, so I hope it will paste. But he ranked all positions by the PER. IN case it wont paste, he ranks the Bobcat starters as follows:

PG: DJ at #15, Ray at #28
SG: Bell at #47
SF: Crash at #7
PF: Diaw at #37
C: Chandler at #36 (Okafor is #13)

You guys are the number experts. But if im understanding all this stuff right. We should have only three players that deserve a starting position. Out of the three Felton is slated as a third guard meaning he should not be a starter.
That leaves us with only two players thet should start.
DJ ranked 15th , I would go along with that .And Crash ,I could see six other s/fs better than him .
Hears where i have truble. Bell 47th means he should not start on any team in the NBA and hes only better than only 13 of the back up 2 guards in the league.
Diaw and TC ranked 36th and 37th at thair positions neither player with starting abilitys?

If thease numbers have ANY merit at all this team should compeate well in the NBDL.And our goal as fans means we should not expect over 10 wins this season. Because this team in addition to its starters has one of the worst beanches in the league according to what i have been reading.
I say those numbers are bullshit. I am not bright at all, and i can't belive the crap this writer is saying.

With out useing any fancy methods this is about how i rank thease guys.
DJ- 24
Felton-18
Bell-21
Wallace-7
Diaw-12
TC-16
This ranking has nothing to do with any thing . But what i just put down i feel is a hell of a lot closer than the PER - system being used.
Thats just my 2cents and that doesn't mean a damn thing.

[Walt Cronkite]

Flip, Diaw, and Hendo will also draw coverage on the perimeter.

And if TC is healthy, he will almost assuredly have better stats than Mek, who will be the smallest center in the West and will suffer trememndously for being a pussy.

I already considered Diaw to be sometimes double covered, he's definitely a threat, I acknowledge that. Flip and Henderson are questionable.

Re: Mek being a pussy-- did you wretch when LB said Chandler was definitely not as strong as Okafor?

[SWedd523]

THIS.

A .500 mark should be assumed from my POV. We did it with (as Hollinger noted) a pretty deplorable bench as DJ was injured. Now we have him healthy and the guys we've added are far and away better than what we had playing great ball.

I think we're going to surprise some people.

Well said Amp.

no, THIS.


I don't see how we can go from being a 35-47 record last year with a team that was completely overhauled and playing for one of the toughest coaches in the league, without a respectable bench.. to being a 20 win team this year. That alone shows how flawed his stats are.


1. History says LB's teams perform much better the second year under his tutelage, usually making the playoffs. Why would we be different?

2. Going along with my first point, wasn't it Hollinger's stats that showed our starting unit to be top 10 in the league? They only had half of a season to learn each others', and LB's, game. Now that they have an offseason to learn from eachother, isn't it safe to assume that they'd be at least that good again?

3. Depth. Last year, we had Ray in his first year under a real coach and a rookie backup, and No real backup SG, PF, or C. Now we have Flip, Bo, and UPS. Also Nazr and Diop have gone through rigorous offseason workouts and should provide good help behind Chandler (who is arguably a better fit than Mek in our system). Our team is now deeper and more able to handle a long season.

Everything I've seen points us in the direction of being better than 35-47, maybe marginally, but certainly not much worse.

[teej]

I already considered Diaw to be sometimes double covered, he's definitely a threat, I acknowledge that. Flip and Henderson are questionable.

Re: Mek being a pussy-- did you wretch when LB said Chandler was definitely not as strong as Okafor?

Flip makes his living as a shooter? And I think Hendo will adjust well, but that's just me.

Tyson may be weaker, yes, but he gives his all, which is something Mek CLEARLY does not do. Mek wants to have a long career, so he refuses to risk his body to help his team. That's what Hollinger doesn't count.

And dav, from what I can tell, yes, that's what Hollinger's stat is (laughably) saying.

[Ampsportsduo]

Ampsportsduo--

I've just been a reader of Hollinger for years and a fan of advanced statistics for even longer. Too often (especially on realgm), helpful insight is lost in immature arguments between someone that understands the stats (including their limitation) and one that doesn't get them at all. I have a pretty high tolerance and typically ignore it since I've come to expect it. Like I said though, it was preemptive and I think without it the thread would so far be filled with people saying Hollinger is a moron for having Chandler so low and Okafor so high, or Bell so low, or Wright so high, or whatever. The stats are truly useless without context... the tragedy is that the contextual analysis typically exists, it's just been overlooked.

I love advanced stats, but feel that too often people that espouse them are aware of their limitations, but fail to include the reader in the loop, because it hurts their point. I'm also aware that several writers see a "telling" stat (think last in the league in scoring) and run with it, because it enforces what they already believe neglecting the contributing factors. As you say, "the tragedy is that the contextual analysis typically exists, it's just been overlooked."


His comments on the Jrich trade are bad in hindsight. I don't know how things were around here, but the Realgm board was in an uproar. Not only did we think we traded away the best player in the deal, we had to include Dudley and a 2nd. It doesn't mean that it's true or that it should be repeated, but Larry has detractors from all of his stops that feel he has a detrimental affect on the roster when he is too closely involved. I've come around to think that the Chandler/Okafor swap is just that. Similarly valuable pieces with slight variations. Hopefully Chandler works out as good as as Raja and Diaw. Keep in mind, Hollinger makes one of those articles every time a trade happens...whatever.

There were plenty of people upset here, but they were also equally as upset when I said I was right about the trade. Alas, this isn't about me, but about the team. Even his analysis of JRich as a player was wrong (as were many in the wake of that trade), mostly with writers talking about him as if he was still the dunk champ from GSW when he'd turned into much more of a jump shooter. I believe Hollinger feels he has to come down with a verdict on trades in a real world sense instead of just number crunching. This may be pressure from ESPN or self-inflicted, but its not his strong suit. In all honesty, it's in these situations where he really loses me.


I think your Raja point is really petty, but I think there is a difference between when an All-NBA defensive guard's defense is "visibly declining" and once it has actually "slipped".

I identified this as nitpicky, so I appreciate you agreeing. My point is only that if Hollinger really felt he had been slipping for two years before this last one, why would he say he just slipped last season unless he wasn't confident in his own analysis.


Flip was signed, what, 10 days ago? I guess he should've gone through each of the Bobcats profiles, since he obvious wrote Raja's before the signing. He has over 450 of these to write... is this really something to point out, specifically since he gave such a glowing report for Murray?

Again, I acknowledged this as well, but it would make sense to review the projections of the guys that play the same position as the new signee, especially when he is a positive addition. Perhaps he wrote Raja's two years ago... you know when he first started slipping :biggrin:.


Lobs to Chandler counterpoint: Maybe teams will force Felton (especially) or DJ to beat them and they won't give up easy dunks to Chandler. The oops Paul threw weren't difficult, fine. Paul is still way more of a threat to hurt you than DJ or Ray. Anyway, I fully expect to see more oops to our center this year than last and I pray to the basketball gods that it has a positive affect on Felton and DJ's %s inside. You saw how many times Ray threw the ball out of bounds when he must've been setting up the invisible 15 footer we keep on the roster though, right? Maybe John caught a few of those lowlights as well... maybe?

This is exactly my point. If the big men can't fly over to penetrator without fear, it would be a logical conclusion that the FG% of the PGs would increase. I know I'd make more if a 7-footer wasn't towering over me with little or no fear that I would dish the ball so he could get dunked on. As an aside, I'm fully in Raymond's corner and am hoping (praying) that this second year under LB will prove to be the breakout year we've all been hoping for. The addition of TC could go a long way toward making that happen. If not, I'll have to eat crow.


Offensive ineptitude- Hollinger is referring to our really bad offensive efficiency. Offensive efficiency is points scored per 100 possessions we are 27th. New Orleans was 13th. Hollinger's point here is that with no go to guy like Paul and with less shooters than NO, teams are going to make Chandler get his points while almost always having someone in between him and the basket.

Again the efficiency stat is skewed by the horrendous start to last season. I'd be interested to see where the Cats rank post Diaw trade, because a 6 ppg difference post trade would tend to suggest an improved efficiency as well (given no increase in tempo). the Cats ball movement is very difficult to illustrate as I said, but maybe this will help. Our PGs accounted for less than half of the teams assists, where as NO's PGs accounted for over 60 percent. You could assume that our PGs aren't good, but then consider the Cats had 130 more assists over the course of the season. Ball movement can create open shots just as well and in many cases better than one go-to guy. Okafor had open shots created for him repeatedly by penetration, ball movement, and having a big man counterpart that can pass. Of the 115 assisted baskets TC had last season, 95 came from CP3, only 20 from the rest of the team. Of Emeka's 319 assisted hoops, just over 1/3 came from the PGs. All this points to TC having plenty of opportunities from various passers, not just one like in NO. (Please don't bring up his health, I'm in no mood to cry).


DJ analysis complaint- I expected this one. Notice he didn't say "...showed himself to be an instant natural point guard", but "instant natural at the point." I'm sure you'll find this a technical quibble on my point, but that's fair based on what I've had to explain, right? The point is the area of the floor that is past half court in between the wings and the paint. A player can be a natural there, without exhibiting some of the qualities you'd want of of a true point guard. Jason Kidd is a natural point guard, Boris Diaw plays naturally in the point.

Now I think you're being nitpicky.

I must give Brett from QCH (http://queencityhoops.com/) credit for providing me with the assist numbers. I'm working on a side project (may have shown too much of my hand here), but all the credit for the numbers goes to him. Thanks again.

Good Talk.

[Walt Cronkite]

Swedd, it was someone else that predicted 20 wins. Hollinger's computer predicted 29 wins, but as I explained in the thread where that is relevant:

Lots of unknowns mean that bad players are logging minutes. Go to the op here, click the link adjust the drop down to Charlotte. 5 of our 15 players are literally "--" for PER. This means the cpu thinks guys like Diop, Graham, Radman and Bell are logging tons of minutes. Since we hadn't signed Murray or Graham when the article was written, I'm pretty sure Raja's 9.34 projected PER was the ONLY player represented at SG. Murray alone would've likely pushed us into the 30s. Not sexy and still something we'd all disagree with, but a total in the 20s does look laughable. None of it shows how flawed Hollinger's stats are, just that they have more and less use in different applications.

Now to your actual points:

1. Hollinger wrote an article about how LB alone ought to be enough to push us into the playoffs a year ago. He definitely knows about Brown's history.

2. It was not Hollinger's stats that showed us to have a top 10 5 man unit. Regardless, that was during the Okafor era. Despite not playing an entire season together, Felton-Bell-Wallace-Diaw-Okafor logged a TON of minutes together. A lot has changed since a year ago (and I don't just mean on our team).

3. No complaints here really.

Everything you've seen points us in the direction of an improved record? I'm pretty terrified of what happens if Chandler or Wallace face an injury.

[teej]

Swedd, it was someone else that predicted 20 wins. Hollinger's computer predicted 29 wins, but as I explained in the thread where that is relevant:

Lots of unknowns mean that bad players are logging minutes. Go to the op here, click the link adjust the drop down to Charlotte. 5 of our 15 players are literally "--" for PER. This means the cpu thinks guys like Diop, Graham, Radman and Bell are logging tons of minutes. Since we hadn't signed Murray or Graham when the article was written, I'm pretty sure Raja's 9.34 projected PER was the ONLY player represented at SG. Murray alone would've likely pushed us into the 30s. Not sexy and still something we'd all disagree with, but a total in the 20s does look laughable. None of it shows how flawed Hollinger's stats are, just that they have more and less use in different applications.

Now to your actual points:

1. Hollinger wrote an article about how LB alone ought to be enough to push us into the playoffs a year ago. He definitely knows about Brown's history.

2. It was not Hollinger's stats that showed us to have a top 10 5 man unit. Regardless, that was during the Okafor era. Despite not playing an entire season together, Felton-Bell-Wallace-Diaw-Okafor logged a TON of minutes together. A lot has changed since a year ago (and I don't just mean on our team).

3. No complaints here really.

Everything you've seen points us in the direction of an improved record? I'm pretty terrified of what happens if Chandler or Wallace face an injury.

1. He understood it a year ago, yet there is no mention of it in his preview here? I don't understand that, especially when history says we HAVE to make the playoffs this year.

2. It may not have been Hollinger's stat there, but it was Hollinger's stat that shows us to be an improved team post Okafor-TC trade, and we played .500 ball with that team.

If Wallace gets hurt, there's Flip, UPS, and Graham. If TC get's hurt, there's Nazzy, Diop, and Lexy. This team has the most depth it's ever had. The player I'm worried about is Boris, actually.

[Walt Cronkite]

Flip makes his living as a shooter? And I think Hendo will adjust well, but that's just me.

No, he's made his living as a scorer. He's a career 30% shooter from 3, that's worse than Felton. You did actually, you know, READ the articles you had me post, right? If you didn't, at least I would understand where the confusion is coming from. I've been conditioned to expect to be disappointed from our rookies.



Tyson may be weaker, yes, but he gives his all, which is something Mek CLEARLY does not do. Mek wants to have a long career, so he refuses to risk his body to help his team. That's what Hollinger doesn't count.

Hollinger does count that. That's what the point of profiling the players is instead of just posting objective stats and calling it a day.



And dav, from what I can tell, yes, that's what Hollinger's stat is (laughably) saying.

No Dav, that isn't what Hollinger's stat is showing. The stat is showing (based on 20 years of similarity scores) that DJ and Wallace are our only players projected to be above average on offense (plus blocks and steals) relative to their turnovers (and misses and fouls).

Outside of Boris, who he mentions in the outlook could definitely have an improved season, who would you really cite in disagreement? Felton has been consistently just below average for every season of his career. The complaint about analyzing Raja is that his defense and leadership go overlooked, not his offensive contribution.

[SWedd523]

Okay either way. I don't see how Hollinger can use his stats to show we're going to be 6 games worse when he acknowledges that we're probably going to be better.


1. If he knows about Brown's history then he would certainly claim that we'd be better. Everybody knows LB's system needs time to master and teams historically take a jump in their second year (BETTER)

2. No, I'm pretty sure the top 10 Starting Unit claim was POST Okafor. However, I'm not sure, but I believe spectre is the one with that tidbit of information. If they have more time together then one would imagine that they would improve, even if only marginally. (BETTER)

3. We won 35 games last year with no depth. Now we have more depth. I fail to see how that translates to us being anything but a better team. For example, when Raja went down last year we went on a losing streak because we filled that void with a PG. Now, when (yes when) that happens again, we have Bo and Flip available to fill in with a much smaller drop off in production. Also, when Crash went down we went on another losing streak. Now we have UPS, Graham, in addition to Radman, who can fill that void. As far as Chandler going down--We know Nazr rededicated himself this offseason and we know Diop is going to be in better shape and has been working on an actual offensive game. In other words, we won't suck nearly as bad when those players go down so we're going to lose less games with their absences. (BETTER)



All of those point us in a positive direction.



The only thing I see as negative about our offseason was the Okafor/Chandler trade--which in itself is exaggerated because people are so quick to write off Chandler now. I realize you're big into stats and I realize that Mek is a better statistical player than Chandler. But a computer and a calculator can't show that Chandler is a much better fit in LB's system than Mek was. For example, Mek was below average in the pick and roll (A huge facet in the LB system). Also, I think the energy Tyson brings is understated (and unaccounted for with stats) because its undeniable that guys play harder when they see somebody else giving it their all.

When people saw Mek just chugging along playing it safe, it was hardly inspiring to his teammates. When they watch Tyson hustling and running all over the place, they get energized and want to play that much harder... which leads to better overall play.

[Walt Cronkite]

Now I think you're being nitpicky.


Do you really not see a difference between being a natural point guard and a natural at the point? One is a position on a team, the other is a position on the floor. That is waaay less nitpicky than "visibly declining" and "slipped" (present tense vs past)

[teej]

No Dav, that isn't what Hollinger's stat is showing. The stat is showing (based on 20 years of similarity scores) that DJ and Wallace are our only players projected to be above average on offense (plus blocks and steals) relative to their turnovers (and misses and fouls).

Outside of Boris, who he mentions in the outlook could definitely have an improved season, who would you really cite in disagreement? Felton has been consistently just below average for every season of his career. The complaint about analyzing Raja is that his defense and leadership go overlooked, not his offensive contribution.

Maybe I misunderstood the stat. My fault. Either way, I disagree.

I don't see how Boris isn't already there based on last season?

And if this is compared to the rest of the league like I think it is, Raja isn't the 47th most efficient guard...

Also, blocks and steals are nowhere close to a good measurement of defense, which is critical to a Larry Brown team.

[Walt Cronkite]

1. He understood it a year ago, yet there is no mention of it in his preview here? I don't understand that, especially when history says we HAVE to make the playoffs this year.

Ya see, this is contextual analysis! Hollinger's prediction machine doesn't have this context programmed, but the guy that writes the articles does! Hollinger doesn't write that we won't make the playoffs, just that it's hard to be optimistic and that we'll have to be "extraordinary on defense just to smell .500. I suspect they'll be good at that end, because Brown's teams always are, but I doubt they'll be good enough to offset the offense." Nothing damning and we certainly have history on our side, but maybe history gets made for LB this season... in a bad way. We should be prepared.



2. It may not have been Hollinger's stat there, but it was Hollinger's stat that shows us to be an improved team post Okafor-TC trade, and we played .500 ball with that team.

Bell/Diaw-Richardson you mean? Anyway, all stats show us as improved after that trade, we were really terrible before hand and were good afterwards.


If Wallace gets hurt, there's Flip, UPS, and Graham. If TC get's hurt, there's Nazzy, Diop, and Lexy. This team has the most depth it's ever had. The player I'm worried about is Boris, actually.

And who's backing up Flip if Wallace is hurt? You seriously aren't concerned with who you just included as being the fallback options if TC gets hurt? Diop/Mohammed or Lexy starting for extended time? I'm nervous about all of those playing pretty much ever, much less in starter's minutes.

[Walt Cronkite]

Okay either way. I don't see how Hollinger can use his stats to show we're going to be 6 games worse when he acknowledges that we're probably going to be better.

Again, Hollinger isn't using his stats to show we're going to be 6 games worse. You play 2k, right? Imagine if every team had made all of the moves they made up to the date that the article was published (so no Murray or Graham for us), but we hadn't created Hendo or Brown and waived Ajinca and Mohammed. Now, imagine that everyone in the game had Defensive awareness set to 50. Our rating would be a lot worse than we expect, right? This is analogous to what Hollinger is working with. Of course, he's a smart guy so he knows we're a defensive team with good players, so he boosts almost everyone to 75 of higher on defensive awareness in his edits. We're going to be a lot better with these edits (how hollinger things we'll actually perform) than the earlier rosters (what Hollinger's statistical program predicts)



1. If he knows about Brown's history then he would certainly claim that we'd be better. Everybody knows LB's system needs time to master and teams historically take a jump in their second year (BETTER)
Agreed, he knows.


2. No, I'm pretty sure the top 10 Starting Unit claim was POST Okafor. However, I'm not sure, but I believe spectre is the one with that tidbit of information. If they have more time together then one would imagine that they would improve, even if only marginally. (BETTER)
No, I discovered it on 82games.com. We were tied for 6th with Orlando in plus minus at years end and we had a huge sample size. If you force me to, I'll link you to, but that would be kind of a dick move on your part.


3. We won 35 games last year with no depth. Now we have more depth. I fail to see how that translates to us being anything but a better team. For example, when Raja went down last year we went on a losing streak because we filled that void with a PG. Now, when (yes when) that happens again, we have Bo and Flip available to fill in with a much smaller drop off in production. Also, when Crash went down we went on another losing streak. Now we have UPS, Graham, in addition to Radman, who can fill that void. As far as Chandler going down--We know Nazr rededicated himself this offseason and we know Diop is going to be in better shape and has been working on an actual offensive game. In other words, we won't suck nearly as bad when those players go down so we're going to lose less games with their absences. (BETTER)

I cover most of this in my 2k analogy. Nazr rededicating himself... I hope that works out. Not a great track record for guys that lose their passion for the game when they aren't known for being in great shape and having awesome, starter quality bounce back years. I hope it happens though, it would definitely make me feel more positive about how things will go. I guess we'll start seeing some things tomorrow, Naz will probably start or at least get a ton of burn with Diaw and Chandler out... even for preseason, I imagine he'd have to log a lot of minutes.



The only thing I see as negative about our offseason was the Okafor/Chandler trade--which in itself is exaggerated because people are so quick to write off Chandler now. I realize you're big into stats and I realize that Mek is a better statistical player than Chandler. But a computer and a calculator can't show that Chandler is a much better fit in LB's system than Mek was. For example, Mek was below average in the pick and roll (A huge facet in the LB system). Also, I think the energy Tyson brings is understated (and unaccounted for with stats) because its undeniable that guys play harder when they see somebody else giving it their all.

When people saw Mek just chugging along playing it safe, it was hardly inspiring to his teammates. When they watch Tyson hustling and running all over the place, they get energized and want to play that much harder... which leads to better overall play.

I have bought into the Chandler hype at this point. Hollinger expects a double double and good things for us if Chandler is healthy. Fingers crossed!!

[teej]

Ya see, this is contextual analysis! Hollinger's prediction machine doesn't have this context programmed, but the guy that writes the articles does! Hollinger doesn't write that we won't make the playoffs, just that it's hard to be optimistic and that we'll have to be "extraordinary on defense just to smell .500. I suspect they'll be good at that end, because Brown's teams always are, but I doubt they'll be good enough to offset the offense." Nothing damning and we certainly have history on our side, but maybe history gets made for LB this season... in a bad way. We should be prepared.

But he doesn't put anything in his contextual analysis that our defense is SUPPOSED to outweigh our offense. That's the crux of an LB team. And I'd say most everyone here who follows the team (even Bonnell) is optimistic.




And who's backing up Flip if Wallace is hurt? You seriously aren't concerned with who you just included as being the fallback options if TC gets hurt? Diop/Mohammed or Lexy starting for extended time? I'm nervous about all of those playing pretty much ever, much less in starter's minutes.

Sans Wallace

Ray/DJ/Dontell
Raja/Flip/DJ
Vladi/Flip/UPS
Boris/UPS/Lexy
TC/Nazr/Diop

Sans TC

Ray/DJ/Dontell
Raja/Flip/DJ
Crash/Vladi/UPS
Boris/UPS/Vladi/Lexy
Nazr/Diop/Lexy

Sans both

Ray/DJ/Dontell
Raja/Flip/DJ
Vladi//Flip/UPS
Boris/UPS/Lexy
Nazr/Diop/Lexy

I don't feel comfortable with that for a whole season, but Vladi started as a Laker and Nazr started as a Spur, and both have extensive playoff experience, Nazr with a ring. Nazr was effective when he started in 07-08, and Vladi has reportedly looked a lot better this offseason.

[Walt Cronkite]

I don't see how Boris isn't already there based on last season?
Boris ranks 56th out of 65 pfs in rebound rate, doesn't really get blocks or steals and isn't a good ft shooter. His pure point rating used to be the best in the league for pfs for a few seasons, so that falling to 7th didn't help either.

On RGM, PHX fans say it takes Boris a while to get used to his teammates and his TOs fall once he becomes accustomed. Keeping up the hot shooting and developing chemistry with Diaw would likely lead to a PER above 15 (what the league average rated player is set to each season). Diaw had a 14.5 PER season last year and had to deal with changing teams and I can't imagine there are too many hits on the similarity score front since Boris is such a unique player. Regardless, "Diaw filled a gaping hole in the Charlotte frontcourt a year ago, and looking ahead his versatility makes him a more important player than his numbers imply."



And if this is compared to the rest of the league like I think it is, Raja isn't the 47th most efficient guard...

Again, Raja doesn't get steals and blocks and he's never been well represented. I made this post on Realgm, should've done it here too, but:
Also, from the updated What is Per?: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/s ... id=2850240

"Bear in mind that this rating is not the final, once-and-for-all answer for a player's accomplishments during the season. This is especially true for players -- such as Quinton Ross and Jason Collins -- who are defensive specialists but don't get many blocks or steals.

What PER can do, however, is summarize a player's statistical accomplishments in a single number. That allows us to unify the disparate data on each player that we try to track in our heads (e.g., Corey Maggette: free-throw machine, good rebounder, decent shooter, poor passer, etc.) so that we can move on to evaluating what might be missing from the stats."

Also, keep in mind that this is a projection and since his per drops, there must not be a very good record for 33 year old 6-5 Sgs improving all of a sudden.



Also, blocks and steals are nowhere close to a good measurement of defense, which is critical to a Larry Brown team.
Yes, I know. Blocks and steals are hustle stats. Counterpart PER and +/- do say something about defensive ability, where Raja usually rates pretty well. If you'll notice in the Vlad profile, Hollinger acknowledges that he uses stats outside of the ones listed on ESPN, in this instance Synergy Sports.

[Walt Cronkite]

But he doesn't put anything in his contextual analysis that our defense is SUPPOSED to outweigh our offense. That's the crux of an LB team. And I'd say most everyone here who follows the team (even Bonnell) is optimistic.

HE DOES PUT IT INTO CONTEXT. THAT'S WHAT IT MEANS WHEN I TELL YOU HE MENTIONS HOW GOOD OUR DEFENSE IS OR THAT WE WILL NEED TO HAVE THE BEST DEFENSE IN THE LEAGUE TO OFFSET OUR OFFENSE.

What he doesn't do, that you want him to do, is alter his data subjectively in order to allow for circumstances like ours. You want him to adjust the program to allow for what he himself predicts, which is not how advanced statistics works. You collect data, you input data, you hit enter, you collect your results and you analyze what you have. THEN, you write an article, or talk to a friend or boss or whatever and say, "Well, this is what the data shows, but I think this missing piece will affect the result this way." He does this over and over again and I keep pointing it out to you but you keep reverting to "PREDICTION ONLY SHOWS 29 WINS!"



Sans Wallace

Ray/DJ/Dontell
Raja/Flip/DJ
Vladi/Flip/UPS
Boris/UPS/Lexy
TC/Nazr/Diop

Sans TC

Ray/DJ/Dontell
Raja/Flip/DJ
Crash/Vladi/UPS
Boris/UPS/Vladi/Lexy
Nazr/Diop/Lexy

Sans both

Ray/DJ/Dontell
Raja/Flip/DJ
Vladi//Flip/UPS
Boris/UPS/Lexy
Nazr/Diop/Lexy

I don't feel comfortable with that for a whole season, but Vladi started as a Laker and Nazr started as a Spur, and both have extensive playoff experience, Nazr with a ring. Nazr was effective when he started in 07-08, and Vladi has reportedly looked a lot better this offseason.

Those lineups are not making me feel any better about our chances if we get hit by injury. What we need to hope happens is Gerald only misses around 11 or 12 games again, TC is healthy and Flip and Hendo keep Bell off the inactive list. I can get down with that, but it's asking a lot to go out way. We are due though, no?

[dnbman]

This thread needs more rhetorical questions.

(Thanks for all of the stats, though, Walt. Very interesting.)

[teej]

HE DOES PUT IT INTO CONTEXT. THAT'S WHAT IT MEANS WHEN I TELL YOU HE MENTIONS HOW GOOD OUR DEFENSE IS OR THAT WE WILL NEED TO HAVE THE BEST DEFENSE IN THE LEAGUE TO OFFSET OUR OFFENSE.

What he doesn't do, that you want him to do, is alter his data subjectively in order to allow for circumstances like ours. You want him to adjust the program to allow for what he himself predicts, which is not how advanced statistics works. You collect data, you input data, you hit enter, you collect your results and you analyze what you have. THEN, you write an article, or talk to a friend or boss or whatever and say, "Well, this is what the data shows, but I think this missing piece will affect the result this way." He does this over and over again and I keep pointing it out to you but you keep reverting to "PREDICTION ONLY SHOWS 29 WINS!"

No need to yell. What I want him to do is say for a defensive coach, his system isn't accurate, and he has no way of showing how a defensive team works statistically.


Those lineups are not making me feel any better about our chances if we get hit by injury. What we need to hope happens is Gerald only misses around 11 or 12 games again, TC is healthy and Flip and Hendo keep Bell off the inactive list. I can get down with that, but it's asking a lot to go out way. We are due though, no?

Well, it's certainly your right not to feel comfortable, but I do. And we are most certainly due.

[TheBeagle]

Probably the greatest thread in the universe!!!

HOF this sucker, ziggy, this one's been a beaut!

Because I never read ESPN flotsam (not putting down Hollinger, Walt, it's just I despise ESPN and I generally refer to all articles and opinions they put out as flotsam, detritus, effluvium, nonsense, bunk, and all that), and I have no interest in advanced stats, I am frequently lost during the arguments made above, but they were damn entertaining, and there's nothing better for a fella with degrees in English than to watch battling semantics and mano y mano wordplay in any argument, especially one about preseason predictions from a single individual.

Great job, Walt, teej and ampy! +1s all around.

[davcbow]

Probably the greatest thread in the universe!!!

HOF this sucker, ziggy, this one's been a beaut!

Because I never read ESPN flotsam (not putting down Hollinger, Walt, it's just I despise ESPN and I generally refer to all articles and opinions they put out as flotsam, detritus, effluvium, nonsense, bunk, and all that), and I have no interest in advanced stats, I am frequently lost during the arguments made above, but they were damn entertaining, and there's nothing better for a fella with degrees in English than to watch battling semantics and mano y mano wordplay in any argument, especially one about preseason predictions from a single individual.

Great job, Walt, teej and ampy! +1s all around.

How about ESPN phlegm (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phlegm) noise.....:cool:

[Ampsportsduo]

No need to yell. What I want him to do is say for a defensive coach, his system isn't accurate, and he has no way of showing how a defensive team works statistically.

Hollinger also has a PER against stat that would help to answer this gripe. It is not based on blocks, rebounds, steals, etc. but on the opponents performance against guy x vs. the league average. Ironically, it was the stat that QCH used to show why the TC trade could be good for us, an aspect Mr. Hollinger neglected.

Sorry for the absence, had to get a milkshake.

[Ampsportsduo]

Do you really not see a difference between being a natural point guard and a natural at the point? One is a position on a team, the other is a position on the floor. That is waaay less nitpicky than "visibly declining" and "slipped" (present tense vs past)

Given the reading comprehension level required for content on ESPN.com, I believe you are looking for deeper meaning in a place where there isn't one. You can choose to read Hollinger as if he were Melville, with intricate symbols of chaos and evil, but in this case I see a story about a whale. If Hollinger did mean it in the context you're suggesting, I say boo on him and his editors for it's ambiguous at best.

Finally, I still think you're misunderstanding my comment about Raja slipping. It's not about semantics, but rather continuity. If a year ago Hollinger said he started slipping to seasons prior, why would he now say Raja just started slipping last season? Either he was overselling when the trade went down (to try to drive home his point about the trade) or he's not confident in his analysis.