spectre
10-26-2009, 11:46 AM
2009-10 Eastern Conference Preview (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3675)
Posted by Neil Paine on October 26, 2009
After many months of projections (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?cat=26), it's finally time to unveil our official preseason forecast. They're based on our Win Shares projection system (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3661), with rosters/depth charts current as of Sunday, October 25, 2009. We used Win Shares (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html) to establish a base team strength rating for each squad, and then plugged those into the handy log5 formula (http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=14) and ran another 10,000-season simulation (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3555). What follows are the rosters (newcomers are highlighted in yellow), projected per-minute stats from our Simple Projection System (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3636), projected WS, the results of our 10,000-season sim, and my brief (200-words-or-fewer) thoughts on each team. So let's start the show, in reverse order, beginning with…
8. Charlotte Bobcats (37-45, 3rd in Southeast Division)
Comments: They've never made the playoffs, but I think that's going to change this year. If you look at the moves they made since Larry Brown (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownla01.html) took over, you see them getting much better defensively, and that's the foundation they wanted to have.…Okafor never really became the kind of player you expect from a #2 pick, so swapping him for Chandler doesn't really make a big difference, as they're both D-first bigs without much offensive talent. The key thing for Charlotte was to get out from under Okafor's contract.…Gerald Wallace (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wallage01.html) is outstanding. He doesn't shoot particularly well, but aside from that he's an all-around beast.…D.J. Augustin (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/augusdj01.html) is going to be a great one. He's undersized and he needs to work on his defense, but he's highly talented.…Diaw doesn't seem like a Larry Brown (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownla01.html) guy, he doesn't always give 100%. Raja Bell (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bellra01.html), though, works as hard as anybody.…They made enough positive changes to be a legit playoff contender, but they won't make any noise once they get there.On the page they have projected individual stats.
Posted by Neil Paine on October 26, 2009
After many months of projections (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?cat=26), it's finally time to unveil our official preseason forecast. They're based on our Win Shares projection system (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3661), with rosters/depth charts current as of Sunday, October 25, 2009. We used Win Shares (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html) to establish a base team strength rating for each squad, and then plugged those into the handy log5 formula (http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=14) and ran another 10,000-season simulation (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3555). What follows are the rosters (newcomers are highlighted in yellow), projected per-minute stats from our Simple Projection System (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3636), projected WS, the results of our 10,000-season sim, and my brief (200-words-or-fewer) thoughts on each team. So let's start the show, in reverse order, beginning with…
8. Charlotte Bobcats (37-45, 3rd in Southeast Division)
Comments: They've never made the playoffs, but I think that's going to change this year. If you look at the moves they made since Larry Brown (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownla01.html) took over, you see them getting much better defensively, and that's the foundation they wanted to have.…Okafor never really became the kind of player you expect from a #2 pick, so swapping him for Chandler doesn't really make a big difference, as they're both D-first bigs without much offensive talent. The key thing for Charlotte was to get out from under Okafor's contract.…Gerald Wallace (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wallage01.html) is outstanding. He doesn't shoot particularly well, but aside from that he's an all-around beast.…D.J. Augustin (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/augusdj01.html) is going to be a great one. He's undersized and he needs to work on his defense, but he's highly talented.…Diaw doesn't seem like a Larry Brown (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownla01.html) guy, he doesn't always give 100%. Raja Bell (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bellra01.html), though, works as hard as anybody.…They made enough positive changes to be a legit playoff contender, but they won't make any noise once they get there.On the page they have projected individual stats.