Early season statistical weirdness [Archive]

ziggy

11-01-2009, 02:49 PM

I realize that we're just a mere 3 games into this young season, but looking at the stats this afternoon, there are a few weird things that jump out at me. Here goes:

The bad
* Boris Diaw leads the team in blocks with 3... Come on big men :facepalm:
* Tyson Chandler has picked up 11 fouls in 71 minutes.
* Raymond Felton almost as many turnovers as assists. 14 turnovers / 15 assists
* Gerald Wallace shooting 27.5%, and DJ shooting 36.8% ??? Gotta be a fluke
* 7 guys shooting under 40% - Ray, Crash, Boris, DJ, Nazr, Vlad, Tyson

The good
* Gerald Wallace is averaging 12 rebounds per game :o
* Rookie Derrick Brown is shooting 50% from the field

Other
* This is probably meaningless, but Gerald 2.0, Vlad and Boris are the only Bobcats with at least one rebound, assist, steal, block.

Thoughts?

SWedd523

11-01-2009, 04:26 PM

The poor offensive outings can be attributed to playing two of the best defensive teams in the league. Everybody's numbers dip against the Celtics and Cavs. Plus, we played the Cavs after a double OT game the night before so that really put a crunch on their numbers.

Things will get better, hopefully.....

ND22

11-02-2009, 07:24 AM

Its 3 games into the seasons, things like this generally don't matter. We should see the stats these guys should be putting up eventually show up (or at least something resembling it).

davcbow

11-02-2009, 10:27 AM

Its 3 games into the seasons, things like this generally don't matter. We should see the stats these guys should be putting up eventually show up (or at least something resembling it).

I agree, we've played Boston, NY, and Cleveland of which is a pretty stout schedule and we all know how good Boston and Cleveland play defense....No worries here....:cool:

BRNC

11-02-2009, 10:37 AM

I think stats become relevant after 10-12 games...it takes that long for trends to establish themselves and as others pointed out it generally gives players a chance to face different schemes as well as different players at their respective positions...I'll have a better idea after 10-12 and try to sit on myself until then...

davcbow

11-02-2009, 04:07 PM

playoffs...PLAYOFFS?

11-02-2009, 05:01 PM

* Boris Diaw leads the team in blocks with 3... Come on big men :facepalm:
* Tyson Chandler has picked up 11 fouls in 71 minutes.

this is really concerning..im waiting for a breakout game from tyson chandler..and by breakout i mean just a double double ..12 pts, 10 rbds would suffice..not sure why its taking to much time for him to gel into the offense?

teej

11-02-2009, 05:11 PM

this is really concerning..im waiting for a breakout game from tyson chandler..and by breakout i mean just a double double ..12 pts, 10 rbds would suffice..not sure why its taking to much time for him to gel into the offense?

Because he's still out of shape?

And he looked pretty good against Cleveland.

Plus, it doesn't help that Ray isn't doing shit passing wise...

docend24

11-02-2009, 06:37 PM

Larry Brown is yet to get technical foul :)

SWedd523

11-02-2009, 07:06 PM

this is really concerning..im waiting for a breakout game from tyson chandler..and by breakout i mean just a double double ..12 pts, 10 rbds would suffice..not sure why its taking to much time for him to gel into the offense?
Hasn't he always topped out around 8-10 points? I'd say 6pts/8rbs then 8/7 are great games coming off of surgery. He's still "Diaw'ing it" and is already putting up 8/7. Once the offense gets going I'd assume Mek's 14ish and 10ish won't be that hard to achieve

teej

11-02-2009, 09:54 PM

Larry Brown is yet to get technical foul :)

In the regular season...

KT#20

11-02-2009, 10:13 PM

Hasn't he always topped out around 8-10 points? I'd say 6pts/8rbs then 8/7 are great games coming off of surgery. He's still "Diaw'ing it" and is already putting up 8/7. Once the offense gets going I'd assume Mek's 14ish and 10ish won't be that hard to achieve

You're reaching. 6-8 PPG and 9-10 RPG is more reasonable. As of now, he's actually averaging 5.5 PPG and 7.3 RPG. The more alarming stat is that he's only hit 8 out of 26 shots.

teej

11-02-2009, 10:22 PM

You're reaching. 6-8 PPG and 9-10 RPG is more reasonable.

Mek didn't create any of his points, so I don't think he's really reaching. TC has been working on a 17-footer in practice, and has been hitting it. TC already average a double double once in his career. And he's been solid on the glass already. No reason he can't get 12-14.

SWedd523

11-02-2009, 10:27 PM

You're reaching. 6-8 PPG and 9-10 RPG is more reasonable. As of now, he's actually averaging 5.5 PPG and 7.3 RPG. The more alarming stat is that he's only hit 8 out of 26 shots.
Dude is already averaging 6ppg and 7rpg in his first 4 games played in months. Pretty safe to assume those numbers will go up? Especially since he's improved every game

WarioVsMooChicken

11-03-2009, 12:13 AM

Maybe Wallace will average a double double for the season =)

I can't think of a SF that's ever done that <.<

LiquidWayno

11-03-2009, 01:37 AM

Gerald Wallace is an All-Star at this point, may not stay that way for the whole season though

KT#20

11-03-2009, 10:34 AM

Mek didn't create any of his points, so I don't think he's really reaching. TC has been working on a 17-footer in practice, and has been hitting it. TC already average a double double once in his career. And he's been solid on the glass already. No reason he can't get 12-14.

Define "create". While Mek's post moves were mechanical at times, he certainly scored on his fair share of post ups. By the looks of it, he's better than Chandler at getting offensive boards and finishing, too. Has TC had a single put back this season? He's been a great offensive rebounder in the past, but I'm curious as to how often he puts those back in the basket.

Chandler averaged double figures once in his eight year career. But even in that one season that he did, he only averaged 13.4 PPG per 40 minutes. I see no reason to believe that he'll average 12-14 PPG here, if Chris Paul couldn't even take him to those heights.

As for the TC hitting 17-footers, until he does it in the game, it means very little. He was great from the line, though, so maybe he should start looking for those
15-footers.

KT#20

11-03-2009, 10:38 AM

Dude is already averaging 6ppg and 7rpg in his first 4 games played in months. Pretty safe to assume those numbers will go up? Especially since he's improved every game

He went 2-8 in the last game, is that really improving? I'll take his prior game against Cleveland over that.

But yes, I do think those numbers will go. However, I don't believe he's going to increase his average an entire 7 points.

spectre

11-03-2009, 01:03 PM

http://www.queencityhoops.com/GameRecap110209BTN.php

Current season stats:
Offensive efficiency: 85.5 (30th)
Defensive efficiency: 92.8 (2nd)
Turnover Rate: 17.7 (29th)
Forced Turnover Rate: 18.4 (1st)
Offensive Rebound Rate: 30.8 (5th)
Defensive Rebound Rate: 79.8 (1st)

Yeah, the offensive efficiency and the TO rate sucks...but defensively we're awesome.

We will get better offensively (seriously...does anyone expect us to shoot 17% from 3 for the year?)...once that happens I expect some good things for this season.

teej

11-03-2009, 01:09 PM

Maybe Wallace will average a double double for the season =)

I can't think of a SF that's ever done that <.<

Oscar Robertson averaged a triple double, right? He was a swingman I think, I'm not a historian, but basketball reference has him as a G-F, and he did. So yes, there's at least one ;)

teej

11-03-2009, 01:12 PM

Define "create". While Mek's post moves were mechanical at times, he certainly scored on his fair share of post ups. By the looks of it, he's better than Chandler at getting offensive boards and finishing, too. Has TC had a single put back this season? He's been a great offensive rebounder in the past, but I'm curious as to how often he puts those back in the basket.

Yea, I think TC had two put backs against CLE.

As far as create, I mean be able to get the ball and make a shot that wasn't there before you got the ball. I rarely watched the team before the 07-08 season, but most of the stuff I saw from Mek then was just the guards getting him the ball when he was wide open. Sure, he had a few contested shots (how else could he be the most rejected player in the NBA? :facepalm:) but most of his hoops were from just being in the right place at the right time. Like TC's will be.

Walt Cronkite

11-03-2009, 01:26 PM

Yea, I think TC had two put backs against CLE.

As far as create, I mean be able to get the ball and make a shot that wasn't there before you got the ball. I rarely watched the team before the 07-08 season, but most of the stuff I saw from Mek then was just the guards getting him the ball when he was wide open. Sure, he had a few contested shots (how else could he be the most rejected player in the NBA? :facepalm:) but most of his hoops were from just being in the right place at the right time. Like TC's will be.

Is there a site that shows blocks against? 82games has % of shots blocked by breakdown (ie, 3 pt, 2 pt jumper and close), but I can't find the raw numbers anywhere. As far as inside shots getting blocked though, Wallace lead the team last season, as he had 17% of his shots blocked there(Tied for 2nd most in the league). Felton appears next at 15% (T-11). Okafor had his close shots blocked 11% of the time (T-37). He did get his 2pt jump shots blocked 12% of the time, which would've been a lot had he qualified, but this is a trend amongst many big men. Noah was blocked 14% of the time from that range, 17% for Powe, 17% for Oden, 15% Przybilla, 18% Howard, 21% Biedrins, 12% Chandler.

teej

11-03-2009, 01:33 PM

Is there a site that shows blocks against?

Not that I know of, but they talked about it all of last year on broadcasts and it was all over the boards here. I've read ti multiple places. It might be from the 07-08 season, but it's still valid. But no, I've never seen the raw numbers.

Walt Cronkite

11-03-2009, 01:36 PM

Oh, okay. I thought you meant last season... but you're referencing a player's performance during the Vincent reign.

teej

11-03-2009, 01:40 PM

Oh, okay. I thought you meant last season... but you're referencing a player's performance during the Vincent reign.

Whether or not you get blocked has nothing to do with coaching. And he certainly got blocked a lot last year. Leading to many :facepalm: here.

Crash perfomed well under the Biscuit. So did Nazzy. Mek still got his dub-dub. The team somehow won 33 games. So if anything it's still a valid stat.

KT#20

11-03-2009, 02:33 PM

Crash's performance dropped off under Vincent. Besides his first year that was easily his worst season. And I don't think it's a shock that we went 9-11 without him, but 23-39 with him. He forced way too many shots that season.

Vincent and Okafor were never on the same page, but watching Mek the prior season was a treat.

KT#20

11-03-2009, 02:39 PM

Sure, he had a few contested shots (how else could he be the most rejected player in the NBA? :facepalm:) but most of his hoops were from just being in the right place at the right time. Like TC's will be.

I still think you're undervaluing his post up game.

My thoughts would be someone like Ben Wallace, or Tyson Chandler, equals no post up ability, while someone like Okafor equals an average post up game. Okafor's a 14-point scorer, so even if we're just talking about 2-3 baskets a game coming from post ups, that's still a fairly high percentage of his total points.

If you want to give it another 10(?) or 20(?) games, that's fine, but I'm taken back by the idea that Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin will turn Tyson Chandler into something that Chris Paul couldn't.

teej

11-03-2009, 02:49 PM

If you want to give it another 10(?) or 20(?) games, that's fine, but I'm taken back by the idea that Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin will turn Tyson Chandler into something that Chris Paul couldn't.

About 15. And not DJ or Ray, but Larry Brown. Only the greatest active teacher of the game. Tyson has never had a true COACH. He said as much when he got here. Mek's biggest regret was not spending more time with LB (even though he rejected much of what LB said). I think that TC will grown because of Larry Brown, and that's why he can do better here. Look at Crash's improvement under LB, or Ray's. Even Diaw's. Why can't TC have the same growth?

Walt Cronkite

11-03-2009, 04:16 PM

Whether or not you get blocked has nothing to do with coaching. And he certainly got blocked a lot last year. Leading to many :facepalm: here.

Crash perfomed well under the Biscuit. So did Nazzy. Mek still got his dub-dub. The team somehow won 33 games. So if anything it's still a valid stat.

The article from two years ago is legendary, because Okafor genuinely didn't know he was the most blocked player in the NBA. He didn't believe it when he was told and was shocked afterwards. It was hilarious at the time, it was mentioned on rgm last night and it was still funny. The article from this offseason was about how we lead the league as a team in BA. I think Mek was out of town already, so naturally he was the scapegoat, despite not getting blocked at the rate that Felts and Crash did.

As for the facepalming-- he didn't get blocked as often as two of his teammates. I imagine this is a notably lower total number for Felton, since he wasn't shooting close shots as often as Okafor (30% vs 70%). Wallace is another story. He shot 49% of his shots close since he was blocked 17% of the time, so the only reason he wouldn't have been blocked more times total than Okafor would be because he missed games because due to injury. If you facepalmed yourself every time one of those three guys got blocked inside last season you probably gave yourself brain damage. Pinpointing Mek as the guy that got stuffed without acknowledging that others were worse is an example of how the feel-o-meter can let you down in instances where statistical analysis would set you free.

Also, I'm going to go ahead and disagree that coaching has "nothing to do with" it. Okafor attempted MORE shots under LB inside and was blocked a lower percentage of times. Wallace also attempted more shots inside, but his percentage of blocked attempts was identical. Either Okafor was picking his spots better to make sure he got blocked less (while shooting more) or LB designed an offense wherein one of the benefits was that Okafor was in position inside to shoot more and get blocked less. Since Sam Vincent was awful at coaching and LB isn't, I think coaching is a pretty important factor to consider.

Walt Cronkite

11-03-2009, 04:38 PM

About 15. And not DJ or Ray, but Larry Brown. Only the greatest active teacher of the game. Tyson has never had a true COACH. He said as much when he got here. Mek's biggest regret was not spending more time with LB (even though he rejected much of what LB said). I think that TC will grown because of Larry Brown, and that's why he can do better here. Look at Crash's improvement under LB, or Ray's. Even Diaw's. Why can't TC have the same growth?

LB is not known as the greatest active teacher of the game, he's the greatest active teacher of point guards. Look at his past rosters and you will notice a clear pattern. One big is the defensive anchor who should challenge shots, rebound and defend (Ben Wallace, Dikembe Mutombo, Dale Davis, The Admiral), while the other is responsible for providing something on offense while contributing to the other areas (Rasheed, Smits, Cummings). The other pattern is that offense is guard heavy. Billups/Hamilton, Iverson, Miller and Willie Anderson being prime examples.

Chandler will not learn to create baskets for himself because his coach is LB. He's not going to hit the all star break and have a sick baseline spin or up and under. He might start taking and making a mid range shot so the lanes to the basket are cleared out. Okafor was capable of creating shots for himself with post moves. I think LB would've seen this as a positive, but I think Brown's coaching style is one where this skill would be used sparingly. The FO is more committed long term to Brown than Okafor, so when the call was made from BJ to clear space he became expendable. Chandler is capable of providing what LB expects out of his center position, but that is not 12-14 ppg, but 8-10.

Walt Cronkite

11-03-2009, 04:41 PM

http://www.queencityhoops.com/GameRecap110209BTN.php

Yeah, the offensive efficiency and the TO rate sucks...but defensively we're awesome.

We will get better offensively (seriously...does anyone expect us to shoot 17% from 3 for the year?)...once that happens I expect some good things for this season.

To me the issue isn't that we will improve offensively (because we will), but how much we will improve. We will need to maintain a top defensive rating in order to make up for our bottom 3rd offensive one.

teej

11-03-2009, 05:27 PM

LB is not known as the greatest active teacher of the game,

Who's better?

And he only made Ben Wallace into an All Star from nothing, on that point.

Walt Cronkite

11-03-2009, 06:22 PM

Greatest active teacher of the game candidates: Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich top my list. The guy is a Basketball HOFer and the most knowledgeable option we could possibly have fall into our laps. I'm just saying, for a guy that travels around as much as he does, you sure hear an awful lot more pgs talking about the impact he's had on their game than any other position. LB was a PG, he was taught by one of the best coaches of all-time and PG is an extension of the coach... it's natural that he'd have a huge impact on the players playing that position. You never hear people say that LB fixed their broken jumper or taught them the dream shuffle... he's an x's and o's guy. Let's put it this way, I don't think we even have a big man coach this year and the guy that won the job last year started out as the strength coach! We're teaching bigs basics, boxing out, picking, spacing, rebounding, finishing at the hoop. Oh, and defense. Lots and lots of defense.

Wallace became an All-Star under Rick Carlisle. He did average 9.5 and 9.7 ppg for LB though, 3 points up from Carlisle's version, but Ben was more efficient for Rick. LB let Wallace shoot more, so he did. Only 437 FGA in 03 (in only 73 games) vs 651 attempts in 04 before falling back to 465 in 05, when LB realized Big Ben was what he was.

teej

11-03-2009, 10:16 PM

Greatest active teacher of the game candidates: Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich top my list. The guy is a Basketball HOFer and the most knowledgeable option we could possibly have fall into our laps. I'm just saying, for a guy that travels around as much as he does, you sure hear an awful lot more pgs talking about the impact he's had on their game than any other position. LB was a PG, he was taught by one of the best coaches of all-time and PG is an extension of the coach... it's natural that he'd have a huge impact on the players playing that position. You never hear people say that LB fixed their broken jumper or taught them the dream shuffle... he's an x's and o's guy. Let's put it this way, I don't think we even have a big man coach this year and the guy that won the job last year started out as the strength coach! We're teaching bigs basics, boxing out, picking, spacing, rebounding, finishing at the hoop. Oh, and defense. Lots and lots of defense.

We do have a Big man coach, LaSalle Thompson, and yes, he was origianlly the strength coach, but he also was a Head Coach in the ABA (21st century) and played PF/C in the league for 15 years, including two stints with LB.

As for the two coaches you posted. Phil Jackson is a good coach, but I think he's a bit overrated, because he's always had at least one superstar on his team, and usually two or three. Don't get me wrong, I'd still take him as a coach, but I'd rather have LB. As for Pop, he's certainly a valid candidate, and I have no way of disputing your claim, other than he's only had it work for him with one team, compared to LB and his multitude, including college.

SWedd523

11-03-2009, 10:48 PM

I have to go with Walt on this one. LB is surely a great coach and has tons to offer to the game as far as teaching, but he's always been more of a PG coach. He likes to bring in guys that fill roles while going hard on his PG's in particular. His playbook IS huge, but most of it revolves around the pick&roll game and ball movement.

I doubt he focuses much on shooting drills, and that's probably why we're shooting terribly. The guys need to be shooting hundreds of jumpers a day to get in the swing of things--this is why I think they'll eventually run their % up as the season moves along.

Walt Cronkite

11-03-2009, 11:04 PM

You know LaSalle Thompson wasn't a noted scorer, but instead the defensive, brutish big man that appears on every lb team, right? He really blew the league away under LB when he was dropping 2.3 points in 9.4 mpg and 2.9 in 11.6. You knew this was the guy teaching Chandler how to work the post and you predicted 12-14ppg? You really think LB brought him in to teach scoring from the 5 spot instead of defense and rebounding?

As for your other pp, I'm not talking about replacing LB, I just take exception to you touting him as "the Greatest Active Teacher of the Game". I think this discredits our players to spout things like that. He got Felton to play with more poise, yelled at Wallace for taking bad shots instead of driving relentlessly and gambling on steals that leave his teammates out to dry. Boris just did what he did the last time he was given a major role on a team. These are points where you look to Brown and say that he got the team to play better than the sum of it's parts and in the case of Diaw (and Bell) he saw what the team was lacking and got the fo to act. Assuming LB, the greatest active teacher of the game, will have an affect on TC that gives the guy an ability to create shots for himself to the tune of 14ppg is approximately like assuming he'll fix Felton and Wallace's jumper. He's a coach with great longevity and success and he's had people that could shoot, but that doesn't mean he can create that result in other players.

Ghost Kat

11-04-2009, 12:27 AM

Larry Brown is yet to get technical foul :)

Always a bright side :D

davcbow

11-04-2009, 01:36 AM

Originally Posted by docend24
Larry Brown is yet to get technical foul

Only a matter of time...:cool:

spectre

11-04-2009, 05:54 AM

To me the issue isn't that we will improve offensively (because we will), but how much we will improve. We will need to maintain a top defensive rating in order to make up for our bottom 3rd offensive one.

We'll definitely have to stay a very good defensive team but we don't have to be at the top. Stats are linear and real life isn't. As we saw the other day you can win a game shooting low %, but you can also have games where you shoot 65% (we did something near that vs. the Griz last year) and still end up averaging near the bottom of the league offensively. It just depends on who and when it happens.

LB does teach shooting form and such. TC said as much when he first came here. You guys don't remember the story about while still injured he went out to just shoot some FTs and LB starts yelling "TC, no, no, no!". HE was using his full hand vs. his fingertips.

LB teaches a team how to be strong in the basics...and in that he's at least one of the best teachers currently active.

spectre

11-04-2009, 07:57 AM

Anyone catch the Bulls/Bucks game last night? Funny...it was VERY similar to the Bobcats/Nets. Bulls couldn't throw it in the ocean early so Milwaukee ran it up to an 18 point lead...Bulls only scored 13 in the 1st quarter and 16 in the 2nd (that's 29 for the half).

Deng even racked up a 24/20 game...just like Crash.

Just like us the Bulls started hitting somewhat and Milwaukee imploded just like the Nets...and the Bulls squeeked it out at the end (tho the Bucks had multiple opportunities to tie or even win at the end).

Bulls are a team many have targeted to easily make the playoffs...some even saying as high as the 5th seed. Seems they're struggling early tho...JUST LIKE US!

Just saying.

BTW, the Bucks look awful...way moreso than us. Jennings is their lone bright spot but he chucks something fierce. Bogut did have a good game, but thru a lot of it he would become nonexistent. Warrick didn't impress me either...lots of wild shots and inadvisable shots. Even if we had brought him in I wonder how long LB would put up with that.