"Go for the Playoffs? Playoffs?!" or "Patience is a Virtue"
This post is actually in response to that long “Don’t throw in the towel” thread. It just got so heavy winded in there with unsubstantiated claims, circular logic, and misapplied comprehension, that I wanted to make a fresh start and hopefully create a more sophisticated (too much to ask for?), level headed debate on the subject.
First, a point I made that got completely lost in the inanity:
Quote:
Originally Posted by QC Thundercats
I think some people are looking at this question the wrong way. It isn't whether we should tank or not, or whether we hope for the team to be successful next year and shoot for the playoffs.
As a basketball fan, the ultimate goal is to win a championship. Short of that, you at least want to be in the discussion, to have a legitimate chance at a championship. And as fans of this team, of course this is what all of us want.
But to get there, the process is more a game of chess, not checkers. If you're too eager to try to win as quick as possible, you may experience early success in taking more pieces and having a lead in the game. But the true chess masters know that precise planning and positioning is whats going to win in the end. So what if they sacrifice a rook or bishop along the way. At the end, the player who was in win-now mode and couldn't exhibit the requisite patience will be stuck and won't have any more good moves to take. But the master, who prepared for the moment and was able to set up the board precisely how he planned, will swoop in and capitalize on all his prior calculations for the checkmate.
Overeager teams like the Knicks continuously blew their load trying to win too quick. The Magic had their star, then lost patience in building a contender by going after all the high priced free agents, and never made the finals again. The Hawks are the definition of mediocrity because they decided their best move was with Joe Johnson, and didn't take advantage of other situations that were given to them (Chris Paul). This is also why I feel the Nets are destined to lose.
The Thunder and Spurs are always cited as the chessmasters, but the Bulls also built the right way. Once they got their star, they smartly put in pieces around him so that, until Rose's injury, they were in the discussion as a championship contender and had the best record in the league.
So of course we want to watch a competitive team next year, but we should also understand its not time to go for the checkmate yet. Plus, most professional coaches and players are too competitive to tank, so we shouldn't have to worry about that when we watch the games. That strategy comes from the front office in who they sign for competitive balance, and how they manage cap space for when its time to make a move.
If the chess analogy somehow wasn't clear, here are some others to maybe help get the picture.
1) You finally have the nerve to ask out the girl of your dreams. You’re so over eager to see her nekkid body that you go out and spend a ton of money on a new suit, reserve a seat at an expensive 5 star restaurant, and rent a Ferrari, all so that you can impress her and score on the first date. I mean, why not go for it, right?
First, you’ve set yourself up for failure by setting an unrealistic image that you can’t keep up. But maybe the evening still goes well. At the end, you’re both drunk, and when you get her to your room, you get right to it. You’re feeling so good, experiencing the ultimate pleasure with your dream girl, that you get lost in the moment, and before you know it, you’ve busted in under a minute.
So yeah, you scored. But she ends up so disappointed in your performance that she leaves right away, and doesn’t want to have anything to do with you again.
The smart way would’ve been to be patient and plan your moves for the big picture. Instead of trying to be fancy and impress her with money, you actually got to know her and learned she likes simple picnics instead of fancy dinners, she loves walking on the beach instead of riding in cars, and hates feeling stuffy in expensive clothes.
You have a good first date, and although of course you’d like to get intimate, you don’t need to rush it. You build that trust and compassion over a few dates, and you’re able to set the mood perfectly on the big night. Then when you get into it, you don’t need to jackrabbit and get one off quick, you make sure she gets hers before you get yours.
The result of the long term view? The girl of your dreams is now in love with you, and you won’t have just that one victory to hold onto, but a lifetime of wins any time you want.
2) Lets go back to the turn of the century. You have a bunch of cash you want to invest in the market. The dot.com era is booming, and you can’t wait to get in on the big money, so you invest everything you’ve got into these companies. Things start looking great, you’re getting incredible returns, then one day, BOOM! The bubble bursts. Thousands and thousands of people lost a ton of money because of their overzealousness, without truly looking at what they were getting into, and now you’re completely broke right along with them.
On the other hand, the smart investor took a look at what Apple was doing. They didn’t have much market share, but their computers were very solid. They continued to churn out well made products that revolutionized the music industry and the phone industry, and these peripherals were flying off the shelves. The smart investor jumped in on Apple even though the computer numbers weren’t great yet. The smart investor who had a long term vision and took the time to examine the business models of these companies was able to capitalize with his planning and research, and instead of fizzling out with the dot.com busts, he’s a multi millionaire with tons of stock options, and can throw some change to Mr. Impatient on the street corner who's stuck there because he didn't have time to wait.
3) Simpler example – you’re running in a race for $100,000. You start off on fire, sprinting out in front of everyone by 50 feet or so. As you’re approaching the finish line, you can see the money, almost feel it in your hands, imagining how you’ll spend it when you win. Except you spent all your energy at the start of the race. Yeah, you looked good to all the girls who watched the beginning of the race, but when it came down to it, you had no energy left to hold everyone off. In fact, you were so spent that a second and third person passed you, so you didn’t even collect consolation winnings.
The person who won? He hung out in the middle of the pack, surveyed the competition, and knew exactly how far back from the front he could stay and how much energy he needed to expend to keep up with the leaders. By being steady, he had a huge energy reserve, and when he hit the home stretch, he was able to hit a higher gear than anyone left and cruised to the victory.
There are tons more analogies I can make that show how being patient and not peaking too early will actually get you to where you want to go more effectively and efficiently. Don’t try to get rich quick, there are thousands of more failures than that one success who’s selling you his "Get Rich Quick" book.
And before any counter arguments, yes I know this isn’t the only way. This model does not work for the Lakers, the Celtics, or the Heat. The more efficient model for them is to make a big free agent signing, as the allure of the city and/or environment will convince a star to pick them over a team in frozen Milwaukee, or gray and depressed Cleveland. They can quickly reload through trades and signings. The Lakers can get Dwight Howard and Steve Nash for another championship run. I’m sure the Raptors would have loved to get in on that, or the Rockets or Jazz, but they both are refusing to sign or are unwilling to be traded to these places.
So yes, you can technically get better both ways, but to sustain success, you need to think long term, and make moves to make a solid foundation, instead of trying to make a big splash and fizzling out early.
