"Go for the Playoffs? Playoffs?!" or "Patience is a Virtue"

[QC Thundercats]

This post is actually in response to that long “Don’t throw in the towel” thread. It just got so heavy winded in there with unsubstantiated claims, circular logic, and misapplied comprehension, that I wanted to make a fresh start and hopefully create a more sophisticated (too much to ask for?), level headed debate on the subject.

First, a point I made that got completely lost in the inanity:

I think some people are looking at this question the wrong way. It isn't whether we should tank or not, or whether we hope for the team to be successful next year and shoot for the playoffs.

As a basketball fan, the ultimate goal is to win a championship. Short of that, you at least want to be in the discussion, to have a legitimate chance at a championship. And as fans of this team, of course this is what all of us want.

But to get there, the process is more a game of chess, not checkers. If you're too eager to try to win as quick as possible, you may experience early success in taking more pieces and having a lead in the game. But the true chess masters know that precise planning and positioning is whats going to win in the end. So what if they sacrifice a rook or bishop along the way. At the end, the player who was in win-now mode and couldn't exhibit the requisite patience will be stuck and won't have any more good moves to take. But the master, who prepared for the moment and was able to set up the board precisely how he planned, will swoop in and capitalize on all his prior calculations for the checkmate.

Overeager teams like the Knicks continuously blew their load trying to win too quick. The Magic had their star, then lost patience in building a contender by going after all the high priced free agents, and never made the finals again. The Hawks are the definition of mediocrity because they decided their best move was with Joe Johnson, and didn't take advantage of other situations that were given to them (Chris Paul). This is also why I feel the Nets are destined to lose.

The Thunder and Spurs are always cited as the chessmasters, but the Bulls also built the right way. Once they got their star, they smartly put in pieces around him so that, until Rose's injury, they were in the discussion as a championship contender and had the best record in the league.

So of course we want to watch a competitive team next year, but we should also understand its not time to go for the checkmate yet. Plus, most professional coaches and players are too competitive to tank, so we shouldn't have to worry about that when we watch the games. That strategy comes from the front office in who they sign for competitive balance, and how they manage cap space for when its time to make a move.

If the chess analogy somehow wasn't clear, here are some others to maybe help get the picture.

1) You finally have the nerve to ask out the girl of your dreams. You’re so over eager to see her nekkid body that you go out and spend a ton of money on a new suit, reserve a seat at an expensive 5 star restaurant, and rent a Ferrari, all so that you can impress her and score on the first date. I mean, why not go for it, right?

First, you’ve set yourself up for failure by setting an unrealistic image that you can’t keep up. But maybe the evening still goes well. At the end, you’re both drunk, and when you get her to your room, you get right to it. You’re feeling so good, experiencing the ultimate pleasure with your dream girl, that you get lost in the moment, and before you know it, you’ve busted in under a minute.

So yeah, you scored. But she ends up so disappointed in your performance that she leaves right away, and doesn’t want to have anything to do with you again.

The smart way would’ve been to be patient and plan your moves for the big picture. Instead of trying to be fancy and impress her with money, you actually got to know her and learned she likes simple picnics instead of fancy dinners, she loves walking on the beach instead of riding in cars, and hates feeling stuffy in expensive clothes.

You have a good first date, and although of course you’d like to get intimate, you don’t need to rush it. You build that trust and compassion over a few dates, and you’re able to set the mood perfectly on the big night. Then when you get into it, you don’t need to jackrabbit and get one off quick, you make sure she gets hers before you get yours.

The result of the long term view? The girl of your dreams is now in love with you, and you won’t have just that one victory to hold onto, but a lifetime of wins any time you want.

2) Lets go back to the turn of the century. You have a bunch of cash you want to invest in the market. The dot.com era is booming, and you can’t wait to get in on the big money, so you invest everything you’ve got into these companies. Things start looking great, you’re getting incredible returns, then one day, BOOM! The bubble bursts. Thousands and thousands of people lost a ton of money because of their overzealousness, without truly looking at what they were getting into, and now you’re completely broke right along with them.

On the other hand, the smart investor took a look at what Apple was doing. They didn’t have much market share, but their computers were very solid. They continued to churn out well made products that revolutionized the music industry and the phone industry, and these peripherals were flying off the shelves. The smart investor jumped in on Apple even though the computer numbers weren’t great yet. The smart investor who had a long term vision and took the time to examine the business models of these companies was able to capitalize with his planning and research, and instead of fizzling out with the dot.com busts, he’s a multi millionaire with tons of stock options, and can throw some change to Mr. Impatient on the street corner who's stuck there because he didn't have time to wait.

3) Simpler example – you’re running in a race for $100,000. You start off on fire, sprinting out in front of everyone by 50 feet or so. As you’re approaching the finish line, you can see the money, almost feel it in your hands, imagining how you’ll spend it when you win. Except you spent all your energy at the start of the race. Yeah, you looked good to all the girls who watched the beginning of the race, but when it came down to it, you had no energy left to hold everyone off. In fact, you were so spent that a second and third person passed you, so you didn’t even collect consolation winnings.

The person who won? He hung out in the middle of the pack, surveyed the competition, and knew exactly how far back from the front he could stay and how much energy he needed to expend to keep up with the leaders. By being steady, he had a huge energy reserve, and when he hit the home stretch, he was able to hit a higher gear than anyone left and cruised to the victory.


There are tons more analogies I can make that show how being patient and not peaking too early will actually get you to where you want to go more effectively and efficiently. Don’t try to get rich quick, there are thousands of more failures than that one success who’s selling you his "Get Rich Quick" book.

And before any counter arguments, yes I know this isn’t the only way. This model does not work for the Lakers, the Celtics, or the Heat. The more efficient model for them is to make a big free agent signing, as the allure of the city and/or environment will convince a star to pick them over a team in frozen Milwaukee, or gray and depressed Cleveland. They can quickly reload through trades and signings. The Lakers can get Dwight Howard and Steve Nash for another championship run. I’m sure the Raptors would have loved to get in on that, or the Rockets or Jazz, but they both are refusing to sign or are unwilling to be traded to these places.

So yes, you can technically get better both ways, but to sustain success, you need to think long term, and make moves to make a solid foundation, instead of trying to make a big splash and fizzling out early.

[cltblkhscoach]

You get thanks for just ending that mess over there and restarting a hopefully logical discussion about this, lol. But I agree 100% like I'm sure most of us do here about the slow and steady approach.

[dnbman]

And before any counter arguments, yes I know this isn’t the only way. This model does not work for the Lakers, the Celtics, or the Heat. The more efficient model for them is to make a big free agent signing, as the allure of the city and/or environment will convince a star to pick them over a team in frozen Milwaukee, or gray and depressed Cleveland. They can quickly reload through trades and signings. The Lakers can get Dwight Howard and Steve Nash for another championship run. I’m sure the Raptors would have loved to get in on that, or the Rockets or Jazz, but they both are refusing to sign or are unwilling to be traded to these places.

I just want to add what I posted in the other thread: even the high destination teams of the last 30 years had a significant first round pick on their team to win a championship. (Bird, Magic, Jordan, Olajuwon, Robinson, Duncan, Bryant, Wade) Rarely do teams just sign a bunch of guys unless there's already something going there. It seems like the Knicks and the Lakers are the only teams that can really sign a bunch of superstar free agents now with nothing but legacy and promise now, and the Knicks haven't been able to do it successfully in the last 30 years.

Drafting stars is critical, no matter the model. The only team to win a championship in the last 30 years that didn't do that was Larry Brown's Pistons, which were a special case of several disgruntled guys who got together and played as an amazing team.

I'll also add that I'd be happy with the Dallas model: you're almost always competitive for a championship, but you only win one or none. That's a lot better to me than using all of your resources too soon and being stuck in the middle.

Championships aren't easy, but there are much more effective ways to get there than others.

So yes, you can technically get better both ways, but to sustain success, you need to think long term, and make moves to make a solid foundation, instead of trying to make a big splash and fizzling out early.

Yeah, that. (And I don't think any of the HTML tags do anything except bold, italics, underline, and quote.)

[DashGlobal]

Tank or position yourself for a top 5 pick until you get a superstar.

Simple as that.

[BlockParty]

Ideal season...not tanking, but losing 50+ games by 5 points are less, finishing in lower 5 of the league, but building unity-I think there is a thread on that (and memories of what it feels like to lose...as a team, to be used in the future as added motivation).

Selected Michael Jordan Quotes

I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.

Obstacles don't have to stop you. If you run into a wall, don't turn around and give up. Figure out how to climb it, go through it, or work around it.

If you're trying to achieve, there will be roadblocks. I've had them; everybody has had them. But obstacles don't have to stop you. If you run into a wall, don't turn around and give up. Figure out how to climb it, go through it, or work around it.

Some people want it to happen, some wish it would happen, others make it happen.

I can accept failure, everyone fails at something. But I can't accept not trying.

Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/qu...kwmApTzX3Sp.99

[Charlotteisthebest]

1 winning season in franchise history, a franchise that is losing millions of dollars, and has a tiny fan base, if there ever was a time to start winning its now, winning is contagious, but apparently losing is as well that is why so many of you are so eager to go ahead and chalk up the L's already, go for the gold baby!

Give it to the all star break, if we suck then go ahead and tank and just hope we don't wind up with Greg Oden 2.0!

Go Bobcats!!!!

[dnbman]

1 winning season in franchise history, a franchise that is losing millions of dollars, and has a tiny fan base, if there ever was a time to start winning its now, winning is contagious, but apparently losing is as well that is why so many of you are so eager to go ahead and chalk up the L's already, go for the gold baby!

Give it to the all star break, if we suck then go ahead and tank and just hope we don't wind up with Greg Oden 2.0!

Go Bobcats!!!!

I'm not really sure I see your vision on this. What do think the real difference will be in how we play with in trying for the playoffs versus how we will play just trying to develop talent?

The only real difference in play is that you might let the youngsters play more than the more experienced, and presumably effective, vets play. However, our entire team is young, especially our most talented players. Surely, you don't think Sessions, Gordon, and Haywood are going to deliver us a playoff run, do you?

The biggest confusion of this whole discussion is the concept of "tank." We will not be doing the type of tanking where you had an underwhelming season, so you sit your starters for the last few weeks to try and move up the draft board. The way we "tanked" last year was getting rid of as many bad contracts and veterans as we could to acquire youth and draft picks for the future. Those are two totally different versions of "tank." I have no doubt that our youngsters will go out there and try and win every game, and the coaches, the FO, and all people here will congratulate them. However, we're not making moves to sacrifice our long term future to make a better run at the playoffs now. So, given our roster and our youth, we are more than likely looking at a losing season, which will benefit us in the long run.

To put it another way, I doubt you ever see Dunlap pulling guys or making poor play decisions in the final minutes of games so that we intentionally lose. Won't happen. (Maybe in the last week or so if it matters, but I still doubt it.)

[Adam42R]

I'm not really sure I see your vision on this. What do think the real difference will be in how we play with in trying for the playoffs versus how we will play just trying to develop talent?

The only real difference in play is that you might let the youngsters play more than the more experienced, and presumably effective, vets play. However, our entire team is young, especially our most talented players. Surely, you don't think Sessions, Gordon, and Haywood are going to deliver us a playoff run, do you?

The biggest confusion of this whole discussion is the concept of "tank." We will not be doing the type of tanking where you had an underwhelming season, so you sit your starters for the last few weeks to try and move up the draft board. The way we "tanked" last year was getting rid of as many bad contracts and veterans as we could to acquire youth and draft picks for the future. Those are two totally different versions of "tank." I have no doubt that our youngsters will go out there and try and win every game, and the coaches, the FO, and all people here will congratulate them. However, we're not making moves to sacrifice our long term future to make a better run at the playoffs now. So, given our roster and our youth, we are more than likely looking at a losing season, which will benefit us in the long run.

To put it another way, I doubt you ever see Dunlap pulling guys or making poor play decisions in the final minutes of games so that we intentionally lose. Won't happen. (Maybe in the last week or so if it matters, but I still doubt it.)

This is my belief as well. And this stands in mark contrast to the few folks that I have seen repeatedly posting thoughts along the lines of ".... so if we aren't going to win a championship, we [need to, might as well, aught to, should] tank."

There is too fragile of a fan base here to not appear to be going all out. Losing because of inexperience won't hurt us here (support-wise), losing because of lack of effort will however IMO.

[MadBOBCATfanUK]

This season is one of those seasons where a lot of teams have improved and only a few have really regressed, well only Houston tbh. For me this season is going to be tighter top to bottom and I think theres a good chance of turning in a decent win total aswell as ending up with a high lottery pick.

[QC Thundercats]

...if there ever was a time to start winning its now, winning is contagious, but apparently losing is as well that is why so many of you are so eager to go ahead and chalk up the L's already, go for the gold baby!

This is my belief as well. And this stands in mark contrast to the few folks that I have seen repeatedly posting thoughts along the lines of ".... so if we aren't going to win a championship, we [need to, might as well, aught to, should] tank."

See, these quotes show that there is still a misunderstanding or miscomprehension of what is actually being debated.

Nobody is saying "just lose, baby," or "put in Diop, he's good for the lolz!!!" What we're trying to say is, we want to win really bad too, but there are certain steps to take that can maximize the winning culture. Trying to take shortcuts may work a small percentage of the time, but more often than not can cause a bigger setback than if you had stayed the course.

And the word "tank" is like the super catchphrase being thrown around to try to ignore or discredit someone's point. To clarify/simplify/explain the position of being patient:

1. Wanting to see our young guys develop through playing time does not = tanking
2. Wanting to preserve cap space for a future impact signing when we're ready does not = tanking
3. Not wanting to sign decent mid-tier free agents who would take away said playing time and/or cap space does not = tanking
4. Hoping to have a decade long run in the top 4 of the Eastern Conference, even if it takes 2-3 years of patient building to get there, does not = tanking
5. Not wanting to get caught in the mediocrity cycle of being just in/just out of the playoffs every year does not = tanking

As to this last point, Milwaukee, Houston, Philadelphia, Toronto, Utah are some teams that have been caught in this mediocre hamster wheel. Yes, its exciting to make a playoff run, but continuously getting knocked out of the playoffs in the first round or just barely missing it altogether starts to get old, and these teams don't appear to have the resources or positioning to break out of it. Then the next step is to blow the team up and start over from scratch.

Thats why Houston is acting desperately now, losing their top 2 point guards and bench depth to acquire extra draft picks, hoping to trade up to a top 5 pick. After failing in that endeavor, they were looking to trade just about their entire roster to get Dwight Howard for just 1 season. Jettisoning a few of their high priced players might have been a wiser move a couple seasons ago in order to have cap space and or higher draft picks to have an impact. Then maybe with exciting young talent, the Rockets would have been seen as a destination for an impact player.