Early Rookie of the Year Forecast

[QC Thundercats]

MKG seems a consensus top three candidate for ROY. Doesn't mean much now, but its good to have any awareness of our players on a national level, and I think he ups our respectability a notch or two. I noticed there's no T-Rob mention anywhere.

Anyway, here's the Insider blurb about MKG:

ESPN.com's Summer Forecast poll of experts recently suggested NBA Rookie of the Year voting will come down to the following three players: the New Orleans Hornets' Anthony Davis, the Portland Trail Blazers' Damian Lillard and the Charlotte Bobcats' Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

As individuals, each of these guys had college seasons ranging from good to fantastic last season. They all have significant upside, but will be expected to contribute pretty quickly so none of them should be considered a "project" at all like the Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond is.

All three guys can play and will put up numbers, as they proved that to some degree during the NBA summer leagues. So how accurate will the Summer Forecast be?
When deliberating on how to vote for an MVP, Rookie of the Year, etc., the play of the individual must be considered in context with the success of his team. If this trio of players all post similar PER scores and overall game productivity, their teams' success will carry more weight, which gives a guy like Lillard an advantage. However, if a player produces far more than any other rookie, then he'll win even if he shines for a horrible team, which is what could happen to Kidd-Gilchrist. Davis is indeed the favorite, but he isn't a lock.
Here's a look at why the NBA Rookie of the Year Award will or will not go to Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist or Lillard and what might have been missing from their games to prevent them from taking home the hardware at the end of the 2012-13 season.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, F

Why he could win: Forget how bad the Bobcats might be again this season (it was not a fluke that they lost so often in 2011-12), and focus on just how good Kidd-Gilchrist is at playing his heart out. It's all he has ever done, and as we recently saw with Kenneth Faried last season, that carries much of the day in the NBA. Combine that with how interested teams are in defensive intensity on all parts of the floor as well as an increased focus on the transition game, and we see ample opportunities for Kidd-Gilchrist to flirt with 20 points and 10 rebounds in certain games and perhaps some triple-doubles, too.
Kidd-Gilchrist is comfortable filling the lane, but he's also keen on making the extra pass to get his team a simple bucket. Teams are also looking to go small at power forward more often, so Kidd-Gilchrist should see significant minutes matched up against bigger but slower opponents. But he possesses the power and strength to play with them, despite his youth. He's not going to average Tyreke Evans' rookie line of 20 points, five rebounds and five assists per game, but 14 points, seven rebounds and four assists a game is certainly within reach. And that would be a powerful statement to voters.

Why he doesn't win: Gilchrist is many things, but nothing in Las Vegas suggested he's a good shooter. If he's not effective on the glass or in transition, he might struggle to score on many nights. Unlike Lillard, he's used to playing with a target on his chest against top players, so I don't see that as an issue.
But losing is contagious, and losing as often as Charlotte might this season can certainly be dispiriting. It's even possible that management/coaching does not challenge him to bring his amazing energy every night once the end of the season is near, as the race for the next lottery pick will be on. Kidd-Gilchrist without his special drive and tenacity in gear is simply not a special player, and he certainly would not be worthy of a ROY selection.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...roy-candidates

Also:

Forecast: 2012-13 Rookie of the Year


RANK PLAYER VOTES
1
Anthony Davis
New Orleans Hornets
PF | No. 1 pick
Last season
Kentucky
14.2 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 4.7 bpg
71

A-Train (Shade3c) @Emerald_Custard
@NBAonESPN Anthony Davis because he reminds me of Bill Russell - better on defense than offense and can be a defensive anchor. #NBApicks

2
Damian Lillard
Portland Trail Blazers
PG | No. 6 pick
Last season
Weber State
24.5 ppg, 4.0 apg
10

Chris Freed @Big_Saages
I think Damian Lillard gets rookie of the year - Starting minutes, 2 man game with LMA, and it's a guards league #NBApicks

3
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Charlotte Bobcats
SF | No. 2 pick
Last season
Kentucky
11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg
8

Dan Waxenberg @d_WAX
@NBAonESPN MKG is in the best situation to win ROY because he is already (by far) the best player on his team, the Bobcats. #NBApicks

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/82...st-rookie-year

[Toocool]

Interesting read.

Few things I would like to note:
- Have to see how improved Kemba/Hendo/Mullens are. We saw Kemba play well during Summer League, will be interesting to see where his improvements have been. MKG in his one game showed great flashes of potential. Hendo will probably have to take the no.1 defender every game, which will also help free up MKG slightly (since their attention would be on Hendo).
- Dunlap's running system will definately favour MKG since he's a great finisher in traffic. With Kemba (who is pretty damn fast) pushing the ball and four great athletes on the floor (Hendo, MKG, Biz, Mullens) a very fast paced transition offense can really suit MKG to get easy buckets.
- Again Dunlap has spoken about freeing up Kemba with screens, allowing him to penetrate to the basket. Drive and dish will help MKG when he can go to the rack hard.
- Davis I don't see winning ROTY. He'll rebound well, defend well, but he'll also struggle with foul trouble and limited minutes (as all big men will). He'll also struggle to score in the post against the bigger post players. Think he'll put decent numbers for a rookie center, around 7/7 or so.
- Lillard I feel will do well and looks more clear cut for ROTY. I really have to see MKG on court with us to see how MKG goes, because we certainly don't have the absolute weapon in LMA.

[spectre]

Scouting Report, Analysis and Predictions for Bobcats' Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Bleacher Report, but WELL worth the read.

[SJackson1]

MKG will have a great year this season and has a great chance of being ROY.

[ziggy]

If MKG stays healthy then he certainly has a shot especially if we can bump our win total up to the 27-ish range.

[Chef]

If MKG stays healthy then he certainly has a shot especially if we can bump our win total up to the 27-ish range.

we will be lucky to pass the 20 win mark. mkg will be all rookie team 1st or 2nd team but not ROY

[GoBobs]

I think he is going to be one of those guys that inspires teammates to play hard. I am guessing he puts up 16/8, but his effect on the team will be greater then that.

[westbrook08]

Defense may have gotten Davis drafted #1, but scoring is the first thing any of these voters are gonna look at. I think Lillard,MKG,Barnes,Beal,Lamb,And Ross could all potentially emerge as candidates because they're gonna have the green light on those teams to score at will. If i had to guess i'd say that Lillard,MKG, and Beal have best chance to win it. I think MKG could have somewhat of an advantage though because the media is gonna fall in love with him because of how many different ways he affects a game on any given night.

[ALong13]

I'll be honest, If MKG is in the top 3 in ROY at the end of the year I'll personally be shocked. Kid has a great work ethic, but as I've said plenty of times I don't ever see him being a star player in this league, maybe a solid starter at best. I just don't think he has the shot to be anything more than a 15/5/2 type of guy on a decent team.

I personally expect Portlands Damian Lillard to win the ROY. If I had to rank the top 5, 7 rookies for this upcoming season I'd go

1) Damian Lillard
2) Anthony Davis
3) Dion Waiters
4) Bradley Beal
5) MKG
6) Thomas Robinson (Robins on most teams would be much higher, SAC just has so many big men I don't think he gets as much playing time to show off his skills)
7) Harrison Barnes

[Plowright]

Davis gets this hands down I think. I know Lillard showed well in Vegas but nobody even saw Davis. I am sure he will be ROY