If the playoffs started today.....

**qchoops** · 01-22-2008 09:33 PM

Dunk - Good question...and one I am totally unqualified to answer. As far as I know, efficiencies don't really translate with players, they are too dependent on the other 4 guys on the court.

The guys at Wages of Wins would tell you that they can predict changes in wins and losses due to player movement based on win shares - they were apparently pretty close with their predictions about Iverson last year. But detractors of Win shares will tell you they miss just as often as they hit.

Biggest problem with numbers in the NBA is that they are so dependent on the players around, the style of play the numbers were accumulated in, the coach, etc...oh, and the fact that defense is tough to quantify - blocks, steals, and rebounds - yes. Solid man to man defense? Can't assign a number to it...yet.

**Keetch** · 01-22-2008 10:40 PM

Agree Brett...the Bruce Bowen stats. The guy is statistically one of the worst players in the league yet he's an invaluable part of a championship team.

I've tried a few ideas, but if you ever come up with a simple stat, let me know

my fantasy league is pretty good; but that's the missing link!

**Dunk** · 01-23-2008 07:07 PM

Yeah, if some guy ever does come up with the magic formula he'll be freakin' rich.

If I ran an NBA team, I'd immediately hire about 20 IT guys and 5 or 6 Phd's in Stats and start crunching numbers.

Theoretically, and I've only taken a couple of stat classes, but I'd start looking at multiple regressions and looking for correlations in the data. It's not even about points because in a way that's meaningless -- guys who take a lot of shots score points. That's one of my concerns when I look at player efficiency is the weight on points. I think it's important to somehow measure the offensive and defensive creation of a player on the court. If there's a way to capture that....At least with efficiency, I'd start by weighting different aspects of those stats more than others to see what that turns up. For example, an assist/turnover ratio implies a player has good ball control -- is that more important than something else? If a player has more rebounds and in the paint point (for his position) is that more important and therefore implies a higher value?

There could be a way to measure a Bruce Bowen but you have to capture some of the little things he does. Picks, screens, causing turnovers, maybe the shooting percentage of what his matchup is. Someplace to start, anyway.

**ohara831** · 01-25-2008 11:09 PM

We would be only 1.5 games out of the 8th Playoff spot!

**TheBeagle** · 01-26-2008 12:54 AM

Originally Posted by ohara831

We would be only 1.5 games out of the 8th Playoff spot!

That's just absolutely surreal, all things considered. These guys are something else how they keep battling back, except for that Thanksgiving post-Celtics game lull that lasted a few weeks. Barring injuries, I think we can hang for the duration, and maybe, just maybe.......

**ziggy** · 01-26-2008 06:21 AM

Originally Posted by ohara831

We would be only 1.5 games out of the 8th Playoff spot!

Thats mind boggling considering that we've had to suffer through a 7 game losing streak, a 4 game losing streak and a 3 game losing streak.
If they continue tp play like they did last night though, they'll easily climb up into the 8 spot.

**ohara831** · 01-26-2008 08:21 AM

We are 1.5 out of 8th and 3 out of 7th. considering we are chasing Indiana for 8th and Atlanta for 7th, yes we do have a chance to overtake them in the next couple weeks. But holding on will be TOUGH considering we will be on the road most of the way.

QUESTION: Anyone who has been to a game lately, to the naked eye, are we drawing any more people than the first month?

**boobcats** · 01-26-2008 12:24 PM

I think we're definitely going to pass Indiana.

That means we just have to be ahead of 2/3rds of Chicago, Atlanta, NJ

I'd prefer that we play Boston rather than Detroit.

Detroit would beat us fairly easily. We've played Boston well and the series would be much more exciting to follow win or lose.

However, we've been abysmal on the road and those games are stacking up. We just didn't take enough advantage of our easy early season schedule and that's probably going to keep us out of the playoffs this year.

If we had any cap flexibility left and were able to add a top notch draft pick we'd be competitive next year. Welcome to Jordan airlines, where everyone flies middle class.