2010 Free Agency

[murphman]

After all the hype surrounding the 2010 free agent class, my internet research could only track down a top 10 or 15 listing on various sites. I wanted to have a much deeper list just to show how big this class really could be. Thanks to many sites (especially www.storytellerscontracts.com) I was able to put together a deep ranking. This small project initially has turned into multiple hours of work. I have divided it up into three levels of high, medium and low. Here is a list of terms:

(po - $ million) – Player can opt out of his final year and become a free agent. The amount is the money he would leave on the table by doing so.

(restricted) – Restricted free agent. If tendered, his current team can match any other team’s offer. If not tendered, he becomes unrestricted.

(team option - $ million) – Team has option to terminate contract making the player a free agent. The amount is the money the team would save by doing so. There are plenty of other players who have a team option tied to their contracts but most of them are recent first round draft picks making it likely the team will retain them. I only listed the players who have a chance of becoming free agents.

So here goes starting with the next post.

[murphman]

High Tier
1. LeBron James CLE (po - 17.2 million)
2. Kobe Bryant LAL (po – 24.8 million)
3. Dwayne Wade MIA (po - 17.0 million)
4. Chris Bosh TOR (po - 17.1 million)
5. Dirk Nowitzki DAL (po - 21.5 million)
6. Joe Johnson ATL
7. Paul Pierce BOS (po – 21.5 million)
8. Yao Ming HOU (po – 17.7 million)
9. Amare Stoudamire PHO (po – 17.7 million)
10. Mike Redd MIL (po – 18.3 million)
11. Manu Ginobili SA
12. Richard Jefferson SA (po – 15.0 million)
13. Tracey McGrady HOU
14. LaMarcus Aldridge POR (restricted)
15. Ray Allen BOS
16. Shaquille O'Neal CLE
17. Mike Miller WAS
18. Marcus Camby LAC
19. John Salmons CHI (po – 5.8 million)
20. Rudy Gay MEM (restricted)
21. Brad Miller CHI
22. Josh Howard DAL (team option - 11.8 million)
23. Ronnie Brewer UTA (restricted)
24. David Lee NY
25. Raymond Felton CHA
26. Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE
27. Josh Childress ATL (restricted)
28. Carlos Boozer UTA
29. Rajon Rondo BOS (restricted)
30. Al Harrington NY
31. Kenyon Martin DEN (po – 16.8 million)
32. Jermaine O'Neal MIA
33. Tyson Chandler CHA (po – 12.8 million)
34. Udonis Haslem MIA
35. T.J. Ford IND (po – 8.5 million)
36. Randy Foye WAS (restricted)
37. Delonte West CLE (team option – 4.5 million)
38. Luis Scola HOU
39. Derek Fisher LAL
40. Alan Iverson MEM
41. Raja Bell CHA
42. Tyrus Thomas CHI (restricted)
43. Drew Gooden DAL
44. Roger Mason, Jr. SA
45. Deshawn Stevenson WAS (po – 4.2 million)
46. Hakim Warrick MIL
47. Travis Outlaw POR
48. Kyle Lowry HOU (restricted)
49. Kyle Korver UTA
50. Earl Watson IND

[murphman]

Middle Tier
51. Sebastain Telfair LAC (po – 2.7 million)
52. Grant Hill PHO (po – 3.2 million)
53. Rafer Alston NJ
54. Carl Landry HOU (team option – 3.0 million)
55. Jason Kapono PHI (team option – 6.6 million)
56. Joel Pryzbila POR (po – 7.4 million)
57. Rasual Butler LAC
58. Nate Robinson NY
59. Channing Frye PHO (po – 2.1 million)
60. Chris Duhon NY
61. Ben Wallace DET
62. Larry Hughes NY
63. Steve Blake POR
64. Luke Ridnour MIL
65. Maurice Evans ATL (po – 2.5 million)
66. Sasha Pavlovic MIN
67. Quentin Richardson MIA
68. Shannon Brown LAL (po – 2.8 million)
69. Predrag Stojakovic NO (po – 14.3 million)
70. Craig Smith LAC
71. Antoine Wright TOR
72. Eddy Curry NY (po – 11.3 million)
73. Jannero Pargo CHI
74. C.J. Watson GSW
75. Bobby Simmons NJ
76. Matt Bonner SA
77. Ronald “Flip” Murray CHA
78. Darko Milicic NY
79. Michael Finley SA
80. Tony Allen BOS
81. Brendan Haywood WAS
82. Tim Thomas DAL
83. Rodney Carney PHI
84. Vladimir Radmanovic CHA (po – 6.9 million)
85. Willie Green PHI (team option – 4 million)
86. Mike James WAS
87. Jarvis Hayes NJ
88. Joe Smith ATL
89. Jerry Stackhouse not signed with any team right now
90. Anthony Johnson ORL
91. Rashad McCants not signed with any team right now
92. Erick Dampier DAL (mostly non-guaranteed $13 mil. contract; should get waived)
93. Eddie House BOS
94. Jordan Farmar LAL (restricted)
95. Thabo Sefolosha OKC (restricted)
96. Keith Bogans SA
97. Rasho Nesterovic TOR
98. Steve Novak LAC
99. Wally Szczerbiak DAL

[murphman]

Low Tier
100. Kwame Brown DET
101. Ricky Davis LAC
102. J.J. Redick ORL (restricted)
103. Jared Jeffries NY (po – 6.9 million)
104. Renaldo Balkman DEN (restricted)
105. Tony Battie NJ
106. Luther Head IND
107. Sergio Rodriguez SAC (restricted)
108. Antionio Daniels MIN
109. Chris Quinn MIA
110. Bobby Brown NO
111. Louis Amundson PHO
112. Dominic McGuire WAS
113. Nazr Mohammed CHA (po – 6.9 million)
114. Pops Mensah-Bonsu HOU
115. Darius Miles not signed with any team right now
116. Damien Wilkins MIN
117. Matt Harpring UTA
118. Anthony Carter DEN
119. Juwan Howard POR
120. Gerald Green not signed with any team right now
121. Amir Johnson TOR
122. Devean George GSW
123. Josh Boone NJ (restricted)
124. Brian Skinner LAC
125. Quinton Ross DAL (po – 1.2 million)
126. Travis Diener IND
127. Brian Cardinal MIN
128. Aaron Gray CHI
129. Francisco Elson MIL
130. Mark Blount MIN
131. Brevin Knight not signed with any team right now
132. Kris Humphries DAL (po – 3.2 million)
133. Kurt Thomas MIL
134. Roko Ukic MIL (po – 1.5 million)
135. Etan Thomas OKC
136. Yakhouba Diawara MIA
137. Marcus Williams MEM
138. Sean May SAC
139. Patrick O’Bryant TOR
140. Brian Scalabrine BOS
141. Steven Hunter MEM
142. Dorell Wright MIA
143. Desmond Mason SAC
144. Mardy Collins LAC (restricted)
145. Fabricio Oberto WAS
146. Adam Morrison LAL (restricted)

[murphman]

I left the last four off to make room for any other players who perform well during the season and improve their stock. There are at least another 30-40 free agents or potential free agents who could be added to this list. This includes veterans who are on the downside of their career (example: Theo Ratliff, Speedy Claxton & Kenny Thomas), unsigned free agents right now who are not getting much interest (example: Lorenzen Wright, Donyell Marshall & Jamaal Tinsley), recent later round draft picks heading into their final year under contract but have yet to do much in the league (example: Jawad Williams, Nathan Jawai & Sun Yue), and plenty of non guaranteed contracts both this season and/or next (example: Dontell Jefferson, Sonny Weems & Taylor Griffin).

I will keep updating this list over the next month as more players get signed or traded. Then I will adjust the rankings after the trade deadline early next year to reflect current season performances. I will do a final update the weeks before free agency begins next summer. If there is an obvious omission or mistake, please bring it to my attention.

[teej]

Great work, that's an awesome list, although I'll bet most of the options will be exercised.

[davcbow]

Wow didnt realize we had 4 people on that list. That could really free up some money....

[BETCATS]

if we could get rid of Nazr and Vlad and Raja in order to get John Salmmons and some other random power forward i would be happy.

[teej]

I HIGHLY doubt Vlad, Nazr or TC will opt out unless they have career years...no way they'll get that kind of money in this economy...

[murphman]

Great work, that's an awesome list, although I'll bet most of the options will be exercised.

Thanks.

I'm going to wait until next spring before I make judgement on what the players will do. I do think that if the 2010 free agency began today at least 11 of the top 14 players would be returning to their existing teams. But a lot can happen in a year. NY looks like they will offer the entire farm to Lebron. Phil Jackson could retire and Kobe may not like the new coaching search. Atlanta may decide that Joe Johnson is not worth the money he is requesting if the cap shrinks yet again. Houston may see Yao's foot as a long term liability and pass on any long term offer.

Lots can happen.