Basketball Reference Official Preseason Forecast

[spectre]

2009-10 Eastern Conference Preview

Posted by Neil Paine on October 26, 2009

After many months of projections, it's finally time to unveil our official preseason forecast. They're based on our Win Shares projection system, with rosters/depth charts current as of Sunday, October 25, 2009. We used Win Shares to establish a base team strength rating for each squad, and then plugged those into the handy log5 formula and ran another 10,000-season simulation. What follows are the rosters (newcomers are highlighted in yellow), projected per-minute stats from our Simple Projection System, projected WS, the results of our 10,000-season sim, and my brief (200-words-or-fewer) thoughts on each team. So let's start the show, in reverse order, beginning with…

8. Charlotte Bobcats (37-45, 3rd in Southeast Division)

Comments: They've never made the playoffs, but I think that's going to change this year. If you look at the moves they made since Larry Brown took over, you see them getting much better defensively, and that's the foundation they wanted to have.…Okafor never really became the kind of player you expect from a #2 pick, so swapping him for Chandler doesn't really make a big difference, as they're both D-first bigs without much offensive talent. The key thing for Charlotte was to get out from under Okafor's contract.…Gerald Wallace is outstanding. He doesn't shoot particularly well, but aside from that he's an all-around beast.…D.J. Augustin is going to be a great one. He's undersized and he needs to work on his defense, but he's highly talented.…Diaw doesn't seem like a Larry Brown guy, he doesn't always give 100%. Raja Bell, though, works as hard as anybody.…They made enough positive changes to be a legit playoff contender, but they won't make any noise once they get there.

On the page they have projected individual stats.

[Felton for Prez]

Interesting read. The Pacers at 6th? I like them as a sleeper but I can't get behind them that much.

Does losing Bell and his 2.2 imply that we'd fall to 35 wins and thus to 12th?

[ohara831]

Wow! One of the only ones I have seen who think we are a Playoff team. Very interesting and I hope they are right and all the others are wrong!

[spectre]

Interesting read. The Pacers at 6th? I like them as a sleeper but I can't get behind them that much.

Does losing Bell and his 2.2 imply that we'd fall to 35 wins and thus to 12th?

I didn't like the Raptor's rank either. I think he's underrating WAS & CHI as well, tho I do think the Bulls aren't as good as as some are saying.

[teej]

Well, at least someone says we're making the playoffs.

And I like the analysis.

[BRNC]

They have solid methodology and have always been one of my favorite sites...injuries are hard to forecast (as in what happens after) since a guy may or may not step up for the injured player...last year when Crash was hurt in LA was a good example...so if Hendo (or someone) steps in and is better than expected not a problem...but a great read and I agree on the Raptors/Bulls over rated under rated but we'll see...and it is nice to see someone project us making it with more than a "hunch" to back their projection...